2788 W Covington Dr · Deltona, FL 32738

$110,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,076 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1991 10,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Short Sale. Short Sale. Roof has leaked and the home has mold inside. Repairs are needed. Cute neighborhood.

Key facts

• 0.23 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1991

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $866 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $110k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 71/100 on livability (#381 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Volusia (suburban): math 44% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #47 of 73 in FL (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.1%/yr); 383 active listings in the ZIP; 30 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 24d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 3,402 units permitted in Volusia County in 2024 (681 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $761 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Volusia County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.1% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $68k; list at $110k implies a 62% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $110,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.77% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.74%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.75%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.1% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.1%
• Equity multiple: 2.15×
• Total profit: $35,573
• Equity at exit: $16,401

10-year hold

• IRR: 35.0%
• Equity multiple: 4.08×
• Total profit: $94,871
• Equity at exit: $9,511

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32738

• Home prices YoY: -31.8%
• Rents YoY: 2.1%
• Active inventory: 383
• Price-to-rent: 4.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,951 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $624/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$410
• Net cashflow: $866

Break-even live

Break-even rent $854

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 51%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 30 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2980 N Huron Dr Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1156	$1,835	$1.59	23d	1	0.36mi
3100 Croton Ave Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1153	$1,845	$1.60	23d	1	0.42mi
2459 Hope Ave Deltona, FL	2.0	1.0	1050	$1,495	$1.42	21d	1	0.65mi
2261 Conway Dr Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1212	$1,805	$1.49	19d	1	1.01mi
2786 Flynn St Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1399	$1,959	$1.40	14d	1	1.02mi
2331 Hadley St Deltona, FL	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,588	$1.44	14d	1	1.03mi
2311 Hadley St Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1051	$1,795	$1.71	23d	1	1.03mi
2212 Florida Dr Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1080	$1,495	$1.38	19d	1	1.09mi
2240 Florida Dr Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	838	$1,569	$1.87	2d	4	1.10mi
2600 Island Walk Dr Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,282	$1.62	23d	1	1.11mi
2205 Conway Dr Unit 200 Deltona, FL	2.0	1.0	855	$1,450	$1.70	23d	1	1.15mi
2201 Conway Dr Unit 202 Deltona, FL	2.0	1.0	857	$1,749	$2.04	23d	1	1.18mi
2201 Conway Dr Unit 2201 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	975	$1,797	$1.84	23d	1	1.18mi
2615 Fair Oaks Dr Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,899	$1.28	14d	1	1.19mi
2615 Fair Oaks Dr Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1480	$1,935	$1.31	23d	1	1.19mi
2225 W Dana Dr Deltona, FL	3.0	1.0	1200	$1,775	$1.48	23d	1	1.19mi
2704 Island Walk Dr Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1412	$2,307	$1.63	23d	1	1.24mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904309 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,075	$1.89	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904106 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,542	$1.40	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904203 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,604	$1.46	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904305 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,646	$1.50	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904109 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,725	$1.57	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904310 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,100	$1.91	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904202 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,791	$1.63	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904307 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,836	$1.67	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904104 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$1,950	$1.77	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904110 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904209 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,025	$1.84	23d	1	1.34mi
2902 Cardinal St Unit 2904210 Deltona, FL	2.0	2.0	1100	$2,050	$1.86	23d	1	1.34mi
2820 Beckwith St Deltona, FL	3.0	2.0	1032	$1,895	$1.84	21d	1	1.41mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-01-14
   status Pending
2. 2026-01-14
   listed $110,000 Active
3. 2001-01-12
   soldstatus $67,900
4. 1994-11-16
   soldstatus $57,700

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $624 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $913 · $76/mo
• Expected delta: +$289/yr (+$24/mo · 46.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $23,407
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$624
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,873
• − Management: −$1,873
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable income: $9,126
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,190
• After-tax cash flow: $8,205/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Volusia
• NCES district ID: 1201920
• Math proficiency: 44% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $42,946
• Composite: 39.2/100
• National rank: #4019
• State rank: #47 of 73 in FL

Livability — Deltona

• Score: 71/100
• State rank: #381
• US rank: #6749

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Deltona, FL
• County: Volusia County · 556,871 people
• City population: 101,355
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• Population (ZIP): 49,368
• Household income: $80,224
• Rent vs Own: 17.8% rent · 82.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 636.0

Population outlook (Volusia County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 572,749 people
• By 2030: 598,695 · +4.5%
• By 2040: 644,880 · +12.6%
• By 2050: 681,451 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 759,957 · +32.7%
• By 2100: 778,902 · +36.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 37% Black 13% Two or more races 12%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 23% Cuban 3% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 2% Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 26%

Political lean MEDSL · Volusia

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.8) · D 38.7% · R 60.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -27.4pp toward R · 2008: 5.7pp · 2024: -21.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.8 2020: R+14.1 2016: R+13.1 2012: R+1.2 2008: D+5.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -154.91%
• Current HPI: 331.8842
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.10%
• Metro: Deltona-Daytona Beach-Ormond Beach, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+90.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-14 Pending — Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-14 Listed $110,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-01-12 Sold (Public Records) $67,900 Public Records
• 1994-11-16 Sold (Public Records) $57,700 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $624 · +9.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.