22987 N Post Oak Ln · Walnut Hill, IL 62893

$139,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,568 sqft · SingleFamily · 64 Days on market

Built 2002 1.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.5/30.0
• Appreciation +8.2/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.1/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Great Country setting on 1 acre. There have been many updates including new metal roof on 3 structures, new laminate in kitchen and vinyl in both bathrooms, paint in most rooms. Includes a detached 2 car garage, a 1 car detached garage w/ workshop, canning cellar and a camper carport valued at 3,300. This is a must see! None

Key facts

• 1 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2002

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Fee simple ownership
• HOA & community: No master association fee required

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage (owned) with 2 garage spaces; Gravel parking; total 2 parking spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Septic tank
• Home design: Detached single-family home; One-story
• Construction: Built approximately 21–25 years ago; Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Deck; Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (main level) — 12 x 23, vinyl flooring
• Bedrooms: Master bedroom (main level) with full bath; Bedroom 2 (main level) — 13 x 11, carpet; Bedroom 3 (main level) — 13 x 10, carpet; Additional bedroom
• Flooring: Carpet in bedrooms; Laminate in master bedroom; Vinyl in kitchen; Ceramic tile in living room
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Propane heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Five total rooms; Wood-burning fireplace in the living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room (main level) — 5 x 5

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $82 ($981/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $117k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $117k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#1,034 in IL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing B+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Centralia Hsd 200 (town): math 21% / reading 26% proficiency, ranked #668 of 919 in IL (top 73%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 7 active listings in the ZIP; 6 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $10k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $9k appreciation (6.3% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at -14% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (6.3% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $39k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$34k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 64 days — a 6% lower offer ($132k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $72k; list at $140k implies a 94% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $117,113 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 64 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 16% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.99%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.50%
• DSCR: 1.11
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $418,656
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
22987 N Post Oak Ln	0.00mi	3/2.0	1,568 (0%)	0mo	$136,000	$87	100
23445 N Post Oak Rd	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,500 (-4%)	16mo	$400,000	$267	55

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

6.34% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 18.2%
• Equity multiple: 2.24×
• Total profit: $48,391
• Equity at exit: $90,982

10-year hold

• IRR: 17.6%
• Equity multiple: 4.51×
• Total profit: $137,452
• Equity at exit: $167,677

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 62893

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 7
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,171 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$52 /mo · $618/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$246
• Net cashflow: $82

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,068

Max offer price $139,900

Occupancy floor 88%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $139,900 Pending 64 DOM
2. 2026-06-04
   days on market $139,900 Contingent - Continue to Show 62 DOM
3. 2026-06-02
   statusdays on market $139,900 Contingent - Continue to Show 61 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   days on market $139,900 Active 60 DOM
5. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 59 DOM
6. 2026-05-31
   days on market $139,900 Active 58 DOM
7. 2026-05-04
   historical Contingent - Continue to Show
8. 2026-04-23
   price $139,900
9. 2026-04-01
   listed $149,900 Active
10. 2021-08-06
    historical
11. 2016-04-30
    historical
12. 2016-04-14
    soldstatus $72,000
13. 2016-04-13
    soldstatus $72,000 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Great Country setting on 1 acre. There have been many updates including new metal roof on 3 structures, new laminate in kitchen and vinyl in both bathrooms, paint in most rooms. Includes a detached 2 car garage, a 1 car detached garage w/ workshop, canning cellar and a camper carport valued at 3,300. This is a must see! None

14. 2016-04-13
    soldstatus $72,000 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Great Country setting on 1 acre. There have been many updates including new metal roof on 3 structures, new laminate in kitchen and vinyl in both bathrooms, paint in most rooms. Includes a detached 2 car garage, a 1 car detached garage w/ workshop, canning cellar and a camper carport valued at 3,300. This is a must see! None

15. 2015-09-23
    listed $78,900 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Great Country setting on 1 acre. There have been many updates including new metal roof on 3 structures, new laminate in kitchen and vinyl in both bathrooms, paint in most rooms. Includes a detached 2 car garage, a 1 car detached garage w/ workshop, canning cellar and a camper carport valued at 3,300. This is a must see! None

16. 2015-09-23
    listed $78,900 326-char remark

    Show marketing remark (326 chars)

    Great Country setting on 1 acre. There have been many updates including new metal roof on 3 structures, new laminate in kitchen and vinyl in both bathrooms, paint in most rooms. Includes a detached 2 car garage, a 1 car detached garage w/ workshop, canning cellar and a camper carport valued at 3,300. This is a must see! None

17. 2011-08-24
    soldstatus $60,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $618 · $52/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,897 · $158/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,279/yr (+$107/mo · 206.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,054
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$618
• − Insurance: −$700
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,124
• − Management: −$1,124
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$1,419
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$341
• After-tax cash flow: $1,321/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Centralia Hsd 200
• NCES district ID: 1709300
• Math proficiency: 21% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 26% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $34,555
• Composite: 22.43/100
• National rank: #13470
• State rank: #668 of 919 in IL

Livability — Walnut Hill

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #1034
• US rank: #19847

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing B+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 922

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 36,818 people
• By 2030: 35,764 · -2.9%
• By 2040: 33,649 · -8.6%
• By 2050: 31,557 · -14.3%
• By 2075: 26,055 · -29.2%
• By 2100: 19,237 · -47.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 1%
• Common ancestry: Italian 4% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Languages at home: 99% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.8) · D 25.5% · R 73.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -37.0pp toward R · 2008: -10.7pp · 2024: -47.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.8 2020: R+45.1 2016: R+43.2 2012: R+22.9 2008: R+10.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 6.34%
• Current HPI: 153.7358
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+133.2% since first listed

11 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-04 Contingent — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-23 Price Changed $139,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-01 Listed $149,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2021-08-06 Listing Removed — RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-30 Listing Removed — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-14 Sold (Public Records) $72,000 Public Records
• 2016-04-13 Sold (MLS) $72,000 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2016-04-13 Sold (MLS) $72,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-23 Listed $78,900 RMLSA as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2015-09-23 Listed $78,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2011-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $60,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.1%/yr

Latest (2024): $618 · -39.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.