2509 Goldfinch Dr · Denton, TX 76205

$451,277

4 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,089 sqft · Land · 136 Days on market

Built 2026 5,994 sqft lot $216/sqft · 15% above area Est $392k · 15% over $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +7.0/30.0
• Livability +4.4/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.7/5.0
• DSCR +1.2/10.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0
• 1% rule +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

D.R. HORTON NOW SELLING in the FABULOUS COMMUNITY of EAGLE CREEK in DENTON and DENTON ISD!! Gorgeous open concept single Story 4 BEDROOM Blue Jay Floorplan-Elevation F with an estimated Summer Completion. Large Chef's Kitchen with seating Island, Pendant lights, abundant Cabinets, tiled Backsplash, built-in SS Appliances and wide Pantry. Spacious Living and luxurious main Bedroom at the rear of the Home with dual sink Vanity, garden tub, separate Shower, and walk-in Closet. Granite Countertops in Kitchen and Quartz vanities in both full Baths. Designer Pkg including tiled Entry, Halls, Living, Kitchen and Wet areas plus Home is Connected Smart Home Technology. Mud Room, Tankless Water Heater, covered back Patio, full gutters, front exterior Coach Lights, 6 foot fenced backyard, landscape Pkg with full Sprinkler System and more! Two Playgrounds, Club House and Pool. Close proximity to Downtown Denton, UNT, TWU, The Square, Rayzor Ranch Town Center and Restaurants, I-35E and I-35W.

Key facts

• Wide pantry
• Chef's kitchen
• Seating island

Tags

• CHEF'S KITCHEN
• SEATING ISLAND
• BUILT-IN SS APPLIANCES
• WIDE PANTRY
• DUAL SINK VANITY
• GARDEN TUB

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.5-bath land listed at $451k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-670 ($-8k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $333k (26.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $258k (42.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $258k (42.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.5% vs local median 3.4% in Denton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 88/100 on livability (#2 in TX, #210 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Denton ISD (urban): math 36% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #383 of 826 in TX (top 46%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-3.4%/yr); 172 active listings in the ZIP; 23 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 27d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 48% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 10,531 units permitted in Denton County in 2024 (2,713 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $2,576/mo this rent would consume 45% of the median local household income ($69k/yr) (locally 1268% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Denton County population projected at +66% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 136 days — a 12% lower offer ($397k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Recommended offer $257,560 (42.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 136 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 43% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.57% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.51%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.37%
• DSCR: 0.72
• GRM: 14.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $392,482
• List price: $451,277
• Delta: 14.98%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -30.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.02×
• Total profit: $-123,588
• Equity at exit: $67,287

10-year hold

• IRR: -47.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.52×
• Total profit: $-192,644
• Equity at exit: $39,018

Cash invested: $126,358 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76205

• Home prices YoY: -25.8%
• Rents YoY: -3.4%
• Active inventory: 172
• Price-to-rent: 14.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,576 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,367
• Tax from tax record: −$84 /mo · $1,003/yr
• Insurance: −$188
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$541
• Net cashflow: $-670

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,424

Max offer price $332,848

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-415	-5% $-543	+0% $-670	+5% $-798	+10% $-926
Rent	-10% $-874	-5% $-772	+0% $-670	+5% $-569	+10% $-467
Rate	-1.0pp $-443	-0.5pp $-556	base $-670	+0.5pp $-787	+1.0pp $-906

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $112,819
• Closing costs: $13,538
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 23 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1513 Woodpecker St Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	2733	$3,500	$1.28	12d	1	0.24mi
2201 Yellowhammer Rd Denton, TX	4.0	3.0	2874	$3,150	$1.10	26d	1	0.28mi
1709 Sparrow St Denton, TX	5.0	4.0	2922	$3,300	$1.13	0d	1	0.30mi
2301 Ruff Rd Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1914	$2,700	$1.41	26d	1	0.33mi
2605 Starling St Denton, TX	5.0	3.0	2150	$2,850	$1.33	0d	1	0.40mi
2200 Laurel St Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1444	$2,195	$1.52	46d	1	0.71mi
2704 Donella Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1901	$2,500	$1.32	46d	1	0.75mi
1403 Kendolph Dr Denton, TX	3.0	2.0	1967	$2,975	$1.51	5d	1	0.87mi
1324 Norman St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$1,895	$1.18	46d	1	0.92mi
1105 Neff St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1400	$2,099	$1.50	46d	1	1.03mi
1007 W Collins St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1696	$1,850	$1.09	21d	1	1.04mi
1103 Neff St Denton, TX	4.0	2.0	1600	$2,099	$1.31	46d	1	1.04mi
101 Daugherty St Denton, TX	4.0	4.0	1458	$694	$0.48	46d	1	1.16mi
3108 Spenrock Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2124	$2,200	$1.04	46d	1	1.25mi
3117 Kappwood Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1887	$2,125	$1.13	19d	1	1.28mi
3117 Kappwood Ct Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1887	$2,125	$1.13	5d	1	1.28mi
2016 Pembrooke Pl Denton, TX	4.0	3.5	2820	$3,250	$1.15	6d	1	1.36mi
3100 Hornbeam St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.5	2572	$2,550	$0.99	46d	1	1.40mi
1112 Beechwood Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	1606	$2,405	$1.50	46d	1	1.43mi
3121 Hornbeam St Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1852	$2,399	$1.30	5d	1	1.45mi
1029 Beechwood Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2105	$2,200	$1.05	46d	1	1.47mi
1120 Springcreek Dr Denton, TX	4.0	2.5	2698	$2,370	$0.88	15d	1	1.48mi
4512 Remuda Ln Argyle, TX	3.0	2.0	1737	$2,300	$1.32	46d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr
• Likely covers: waterlandscapingpool

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $451,277 Active 136 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $451,277 Active 133 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $451,277 Active 132 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $451,277 Active 131 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $451,277 Active 130 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $451,277 Active 128 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $451,277 Active 124 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $451,277 Active 123 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $451,277 Active 122 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $451,277 Active 119 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $451,277 Active 118 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $451,277 Active 117 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $451,277 Active 116 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $451,277 Active 115 DOM
15. 2026-04-14
    price $451,277 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    D.R. HORTON NOW SELLING in the FABULOUS COMMUNITY of EAGLE CREEK in DENTON and DENTON ISD!! Gorgeous open concept single Story 4 BEDROOM Blue Jay Floorplan-Elevation F with an estimated Summer Completion. Large Chef's Kitchen with seating Island, Pendant lights, abundant Cabinets, tiled Backsplash, built-in SS Appliances and wide Pantry. Spacious Living and luxurious main Bedroom at the rear of the Home with dual sink Vanity, garden tub, separate Shower, and walk-in Closet. Granite Countertops in Kitchen and Quartz vanities in both full Baths. Designer Pkg including tiled Entry, Halls, Living, Kitchen and Wet areas plus Home is Connected Smart Home Technology. Mud Room, Tankless Water Heater, covered back Patio, full gutters, front exterior Coach Lights, 6 foot fenced backyard, landscape Pkg with full Sprinkler System and more! Two Playgrounds, Club House and Pool. Close proximity to Downtown Denton, UNT, TWU, The Square, Rayzor Ranch Town Center and Restaurants, I-35E and I-35W.

16. 2026-02-09
    price $455,835 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    D.R. HORTON NOW SELLING in the FABULOUS COMMUNITY of EAGLE CREEK in DENTON and DENTON ISD!! Gorgeous open concept single Story 4 BEDROOM Blue Jay Floorplan-Elevation F with an estimated Summer Completion. Large Chef's Kitchen with seating Island, Pendant lights, abundant Cabinets, tiled Backsplash, built-in SS Appliances and wide Pantry. Spacious Living and luxurious main Bedroom at the rear of the Home with dual sink Vanity, garden tub, separate Shower, and walk-in Closet. Granite Countertops in Kitchen and Quartz vanities in both full Baths. Designer Pkg including tiled Entry, Halls, Living, Kitchen and Wet areas plus Home is Connected Smart Home Technology. Mud Room, Tankless Water Heater, covered back Patio, full gutters, front exterior Coach Lights, 6 foot fenced backyard, landscape Pkg with full Sprinkler System and more! Two Playgrounds, Club House and Pool. Close proximity to Downtown Denton, UNT, TWU, The Square, Rayzor Ranch Town Center and Restaurants, I-35E and I-35W.

17. 2026-02-08
    price $455,835 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1499 chars)

    2509 Goldfinch Drive, Denton, Texas, is a new construction home built by D. R. Horton in the Eagle Creek community. Estimated completion: Summer 2026. The Blue Jay plan is a one-story home featuring 4 bedrooms, 2.5 baths, and approx 2,089 square feet of living space. As you enter the home, a mud bench, half-bathroom, and secondary bedroom are located off the front foyer, which leads to a welcoming open-concept kitchen, dining, and living room. The kitchen includes an island with breakfast bar, beautiful quartz countertops, built-in stainless steel appliances, gas cooktop, and a pantry. Two additional secondary bedrooms, second full bathroom, and the utility room are conveniently located off the dining area. A covered patio is located off the living room and provides a perfect spot for outdoor entertaining! The spacious private main bedroom is located off the living room and features an attractive ensuite bathroom with luxury walk-in shower, linen and walk-in closet. Additional features include: tankless water heater; Ceramic tile flooring at Entry, Hallways (per plan), Kitchen/Breakfast, Living Room, Utility and Bathrooms; and, full yard sod, landscaping and irrigation. This home includes our HOME IS CONNECTED base package. Using one central hub that talks to all the devices in your home, you can control the lights, thermostat and locks, all from your cellular device. Photos shown here may not depict the specified home and features and are included for illustration purpose

18. 2026-02-05
    listed $454,785 Active 1499-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    D.R. HORTON NOW SELLING in the FABULOUS COMMUNITY of EAGLE CREEK in DENTON and DENTON ISD!! Gorgeous open concept single Story 4 BEDROOM Blue Jay Floorplan-Elevation F with an estimated Summer Completion. Large Chef's Kitchen with seating Island, Pendant lights, abundant Cabinets, tiled Backsplash, built-in SS Appliances and wide Pantry. Spacious Living and luxurious main Bedroom at the rear of the Home with dual sink Vanity, garden tub, separate Shower, and walk-in Closet. Granite Countertops in Kitchen and Quartz vanities in both full Baths. Designer Pkg including tiled Entry, Halls, Living, Kitchen and Wet areas plus Home is Connected Smart Home Technology. Mud Room, Tankless Water Heater, covered back Patio, full gutters, front exterior Coach Lights, 6 foot fenced backyard, landscape Pkg with full Sprinkler System and more! Two Playgrounds, Club House and Pool. Close proximity to Downtown Denton, UNT, TWU, The Square, Rayzor Ranch Town Center and Restaurants, I-35E and I-35W.

19. 2026-02-05
    listed $454,785 Active 994-char remark

    Show marketing remark (994 chars)

    D.R. HORTON NOW SELLING in the FABULOUS COMMUNITY of EAGLE CREEK in DENTON and DENTON ISD!! Gorgeous open concept single Story 4 BEDROOM Blue Jay Floorplan-Elevation F with an estimated Summer Completion. Large Chef's Kitchen with seating Island, Pendant lights, abundant Cabinets, tiled Backsplash, built-in SS Appliances and wide Pantry. Spacious Living and luxurious main Bedroom at the rear of the Home with dual sink Vanity, garden tub, separate Shower, and walk-in Closet. Granite Countertops in Kitchen and Quartz vanities in both full Baths. Designer Pkg including tiled Entry, Halls, Living, Kitchen and Wet areas plus Home is Connected Smart Home Technology. Mud Room, Tankless Water Heater, covered back Patio, full gutters, front exterior Coach Lights, 6 foot fenced backyard, landscape Pkg with full Sprinkler System and more! Two Playgrounds, Club House and Pool. Close proximity to Downtown Denton, UNT, TWU, The Square, Rayzor Ranch Town Center and Restaurants, I-35E and I-35W.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,003 · $84/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $8,258 · $688/mo
• Expected delta: +$7,256/yr (+$605/mo · 723.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,907
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,279
• − Property taxes: −$1,003
• − Insurance: −$2,256
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,473
• − Management: −$2,473
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$13,128
• Taxable loss: −$16,507
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$3,962
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,083/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Denton ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816740
• Math proficiency: 36% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $58,913
• Composite: 34.91/100
• National rank: #5075
• State rank: #383 of 826 in TX

Livability — Denton

• Score: 88/100
• State rank: #2
• US rank: #210

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime B Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Denton, TX
• County: Denton County · 901,654 people
• City population: 127,990
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 18,978
• Household income: $68,600
• Rent vs Own: 58.3% rent · 41.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1268.0

Population outlook (Denton County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,053,010 people
• By 2030: 1,192,269 · +13.2%
• By 2040: 1,472,920 · +39.9%
• By 2050: 1,746,506 · +65.9%
• By 2075: 2,358,497 · +124.0%
• By 2100: 2,779,183 · +163.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.67)
• Race & ethnicity: White 49% Hispanic / Latino 26% Two or more races 18% Black 17% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 24%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 17% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 76% English-only · Spanish 18% Arabic 3% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Denton

• 2024 margin: R (+13.2) · D 42.7% · R 55.8% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +11.0pp toward D · 2008: -24.2pp · 2024: -13.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+13.2 2020: R+8.1 2016: R+20.2 2012: R+31.7 2008: R+24.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -101.13%
• Current HPI: 290.7883
• Rent YoY: ▼ -3.40%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.8% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-14 Price Changed $451,277 NTREIS
• 2026-02-09 Price Changed $455,835 NTREIS
• 2026-02-08 Price Changed $455,835 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Listed $454,785 Zillow
• 2026-02-05 Listed $454,785 NTREIS

Property tax history

+58.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,003 · +312.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.