108 Deer Run · Lapeer, MI 48446

$20,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 740 sqft · Other · 21 Days on market

Built 1989 4,356 sqft lot $728/mo HOA · 61% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to Hunters Creek MHC. This cute 2 bed 1 bath is just the right starter or downsizing home. Home has an updated bath and kitchen. New water heater. A nice laundry area. A good size porch with a ramp and stairs. There are 2 parking spaces in front of the home. The home is situated on a cul-de-sac, so you have a quiet neighborhood. The community offers access to a pool, playground and covered postboxes. The Community also has events at the club house for residence. All potential buyers need to apply to Hunters Creek HMC to get approval. Call your agent today to schedule a showing.

Key facts

• 4,356 sq ft lot
• Built 1989
• Listed 20 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Directions provided by listing
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with monthly fee; Association fee includes snow removal; Monthly association fee: $728

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Parking pad; No garage
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer available; Power available
• Home design: Single-family residence; One level; Ground-level entry
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Located on a cul-de-sac; Lot approx. 0.1 acre (15 x 50)

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing electric range; Free-standing refrigerator; Dishwasher (portable)
• Bedrooms: Total of 4 rooms
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Gas water heater; Portable dishwasher; Crawl space basement
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath other listed at $20k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $98 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $20k).
• Recommended offer: $20k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 12.2% vs local median 3.6% in Lapeer — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#231 in MI) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A-; Watch: schools D+, employment D, commute F.
• Lapeer Community Schools (town): math 31% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #202 of 540 in MI (top 37%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 186 active listings in the ZIP; 152 units permitted in Lapeer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $138 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $600 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lapeer County population projected at -10% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $6k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($20k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: HOA is 61% of rent.

Recommended offer $19,700 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 5.97% ✓
• Cap rate: 12.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 21.06%
• DSCR: 1.94
• GRM: 1.4

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.62×
• Total profit: $3,472
• Equity at exit: $2,982

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.9%
• Equity multiple: 3.31×
• Total profit: $12,921
• Equity at exit: $1,729

Cash invested: $5,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48446

• Active inventory: 186
• Price-to-rent: 1.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,194 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$105
• Tax from tax record: −$3 /mo · $41/yr
• Insurance: −$8
• HOA: −$728
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$251
• Net cashflow: $98

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,069

Max offer price $20,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $5,000
• Closing costs: $600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $728 · $8,736/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 16 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $20,000 Active 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $20,000 Active 20 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $20,000 Active 19 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $20,000 Active 18 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $20,000 Active 16 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $20,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $20,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $20,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $20,000 Active 7 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $20,000 Active 6 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $20,000 Active 5 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $20,000 Active 4 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $20,000 Active 3 DOM
14. 2026-05-29
    listed $20,000 Active 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Welcome to Hunters Creek MHC. This cute 2 bed 1 bath is just the right starter or downsizing home. Home has an updated bath and kitchen. New water heater. A nice laundry area. A good size porch with a ramp and stairs. There are 2 parking spaces in front of the home. The home is situated on a cul-de-sac, so you have a quiet neighborhood. The community offers access to a pool, playground and covered postboxes. The Community also has events at the club house for residence. All potential buyers need to apply to Hunters Creek HMC to get approval. Call your agent today to schedule a showing.

15. 2026-05-29
    listed $20,000 Active

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Welcome to Hunters Creek MHC. This cute 2 bed 1 bath is just the right starter or downsizing home. Home has an updated bath and kitchen. New water heater. A nice laundry area. A good size porch with a ramp and stairs. There are 2 parking spaces in front of the home. The home is situated on a cul-de-sac, so you have a quiet neighborhood. The community offers access to a pool, playground and covered postboxes. The Community also has events at the club house for residence. All potential buyers need to apply to Hunters Creek HMC to get approval. Call your agent today to schedule a showing.

16. 2026-05-28
    historical $20,000 592-char remark

    Show marketing remark (592 chars)

    Welcome to Hunters Creek MHC. This cute 2 bed 1 bath is just the right starter or downsizing home. Home has an updated bath and kitchen. New water heater. A nice laundry area. A good size porch with a ramp and stairs. There are 2 parking spaces in front of the home. The home is situated on a cul-de-sac, so you have a quiet neighborhood. The community offers access to a pool, playground and covered postboxes. The Community also has events at the club house for residence. All potential buyers need to apply to Hunters Creek HMC to get approval. Call your agent today to schedule a showing.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $41 · $3/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $175 · $15/mo
• Expected delta: +$133/yr (+$11/mo · 322.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $14,323
• − Mortgage interest: −$1,120
• − Property taxes: −$41
• − Insurance: −$100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,146
• − Management: −$1,146
• − HOA: −$8,736
• − Depreciation: −$582
• Taxable income: $1,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$349
• After-tax cash flow: $831/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lapeer Community Schools
• NCES district ID: 2621180
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $53,749
• Composite: 34.79/100
• National rank: #5113
• State rank: #202 of 540 in MI

Livability — Lapeer

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #231
• US rank: #5855

Category grades

Amenities B- Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lapeer, MI
• County: Lapeer County · 30,581 people
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• Population (ZIP): 30,581
• Household income: $66,062
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 908.0

Population outlook (Lapeer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 89,826 people
• By 2030: 89,535 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 86,695 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 80,566 · -10.3%
• By 2075: 65,783 · -26.8%
• By 2100: 46,584 · -48.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 3% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 6% Lithuanian 4% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lapeer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.8) · D 29.5% · R 69.3% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -36.8pp toward R · 2008: -3.0pp · 2024: -39.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.8 2020: R+36.3 2016: R+38.3 2012: R+11.5 2008: R+3.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -243.58%
• Current HPI: 212.3665
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-29 Listed $20,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-05-29 Listed $20,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-05-28 Coming Soon $20,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $41 · +3.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.