16 Night Star Ter · Ranson, WV 25430

$269,990

3 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,530 sqft · Townhouse · 28 Days on market

Built 2026 Est $278k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +8.9/15.0
• Cash flow +6.9/30.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +3.3/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.8/10.0
• DSCR +1.1/10.0

Listing remarks

This new two-story townhome offers a smart layout with space and convenience. The entry level features a welcoming Great Room with extra LED lighting, flowing into the dining area and a fully equipped kitchen with white cabinets, White Ornamental countertops, a tile backsplash, and engineered vinyl plank flooring. A washer and dryer are also included. Upstairs, an alternate layout with a 2-foot extension includes two secondary bedrooms and a tranquil owner's suite with a full bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Built 2026
• Listed 28 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Address: 16 Night Star Ter, Kearneysville, WV 25430; Listing status: Active; Virtual tour available
• Financial info: List price $302,336

Exterior

• Home design: Single-family detached (Allegheny plan); Spec new-construction
• Exterior features: Living area approximately 1530

Interior

• Bedrooms: 3 bedrooms
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms and 1 half bathroom (2.5 total)
• Interior features: Standard new-construction spec home (Allegheny plan)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-412 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $210k (22.1% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $184k (31.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $184k (31.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 66/100 on livability (#100 in WV) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, cost of living A-; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Jefferson County Schools (rural): math 29% / reading 46% proficiency, ranked #6 of 55 in WV (top 11%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 62 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,162 units permitted in Jefferson County in 2024 (360 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $27k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Jefferson County population projected at +13% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$46k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($266k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $184,090 (31.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.68% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.46%
• Cash-on-cash: -6.53%
• DSCR: 0.71
• GRM: 12.2

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $278,460
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12 Night Star Ter Lot 34 ALLEGHENY	0.00mi	3/2.5	1,530 (0%)	1mo	$249,990	$163	99
11 Night Star Ter Lot 27 ALLEGHENY	0.01mi	3/2.5	1,530 (0%)	1mo	$249,990	$163	99
75 White Violet Lot 5 ALLEGHENY	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,481 (-3%)	4mo	$259,990	$176	86
63 White Violet Lot 2 ALLEGHENY	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,481 (-3%)	4mo	$259,990	$176	86
67 White Violet Way Lot 3 ALLEGHENY	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,481 (-3%)	7mo	$259,990	$176	84
62 White Violet Way Lot 09 BAYLOR	0.09mi	3/3.5	1,657 (+8%)	5mo	$265,000	$160	74
130 Night Star Ter	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-6%)	15mo	$262,500	$182	72
134 Night Star Ter	0.11mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-6%)	17mo	$262,500	$182	71
156 Night Star Ter	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-6%)	17mo	$262,500	$182	69
126 Night Star Ter	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-6%)	17mo	$262,500	$182	69
138 Night Star Ter	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-6%)	18mo	$263,750	$183	69
122 Night Star Ter	0.14mi	3/2.5	1,440 (-6%)	19mo	$267,500	$186	68

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 19.7%
• Equity multiple: 2.60×
• Total profit: $120,861
• Equity at exit: $243,228

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.1%
• Equity multiple: 5.98×
• Total profit: $376,583
• Equity at exit: $524,531

Cash invested: $75,597 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State West Virginia: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+22
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Landlord-favorable; preempted; minimal protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 25430

• Home prices YoY: 15.4%
• Active inventory: 62
• Price-to-rent: 12.2×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,841 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,416
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$337 /mo · $4,050/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$387
• Net cashflow: $-412

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,362

Max offer price $210,441

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,498
• Closing costs: $8,100
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
11 Night Star Ter Kearneysville, WV	3.0	2.5	1530	$1,800	$1.18	5d	1	0.04mi
60 Night Star Ter Unit 1 Kearneysville, WV	3.0	2.5	1880	$1,895	$1.01	5d	1	0.05mi
11 Aberdeen Dr Kearneysville, WV	3.0	2.5	1820	$1,850	$1.02	3d	3	0.97mi
15 Chloe Dr Kearneysville, WV	3.0	2.5	1800	$1,795	$1.00	13d	1	0.99mi

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 3% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,091
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,124
• − Property taxes: −$4,050
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,767
• − Management: −$1,767
• − Depreciation: −$7,854
• Taxable loss: −$9,821
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,357
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,581/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Jefferson County Schools
• NCES district ID: 5400570
• Math proficiency: 29% ▼ -13.00%
• Reading proficiency: 46% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $67,038
• Composite: 33.98/100
• National rank: #5322
• State rank: #6 of 55 in WV

Livability — Ranson

• Score: 66/100
• State rank: #100
• US rank: #11255

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A- Crime A+ Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• City population: 7,330
• Population (ZIP): 8,215

Population outlook (Jefferson County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 61,715 people
• By 2030: 64,052 · +3.8%
• By 2040: 67,713 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 69,843 · +13.2%
• By 2075: 72,679 · +17.8%
• By 2100: 71,872 · +16.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (88%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 88% Two or more races 5% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 3%
• Common ancestry: Italian 3% Iranian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · Spanish 2% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Jefferson

• 2024 margin: R (+15.8) · D 41.0% · R 56.8% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -20.6pp toward R · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: -15.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+15.8 2020: R+10.5 2016: R+15.3 2012: R+4.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 43.13%
• Current HPI: 322.5052
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: —
• F500 in state: 0