3124 Raleigh Rd · South Henderson, NC 27537

$159,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,781 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1955 0.27 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.9/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Nice upgraded 4 bedroom 1 bath home. New carpet & vinyl, Ceiling fans in all rooms. Large Pecan Trees

Key facts

• New carpet
• Ceiling fans
• 0.27 acre lot

Tags

• NEW CARPET
• CEILING FANS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $159k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $62 ($747/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $137k (13.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $137k (13.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#710 in NC) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Vance County Schools (rural): math 20% / reading 27% proficiency, ranked #166 of 178 in NC (top 93%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 81% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Zeb Vance Elementary (math 17% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,112 of 1,410 statewide, top 82%, 333 students, 99% FRL); Vance County Middle School (math 13% / reading 17%, grade F, #459 of 475 statewide, top 97%, 797 students, 100% FRL); Vance County High School (math 12% / reading 27%, grade F, #499 of 535 statewide, top 94%, 958 students, 100% FRL) — zoned schools average 99% FRL vs 81% district-wide (19 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 73 units permitted in Vance County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Vance County population projected at -23% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($154k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (11%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $38k; list at $159k implies a 318% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 39% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $137,062 (13.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-21,827
• Equity at exit: $23,707

10-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.69×
• Total profit: $-14,011
• Equity at exit: $13,747

Cash invested: $44,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 27537

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,371 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$834
• Tax from tax record: −$120 /mo · $1,446/yr
• Insurance: −$66
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$288
• Net cashflow: $62

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,292

Max offer price $159,000

Occupancy floor 90%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $39,750
• Closing costs: $4,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 8 events

1. 2024-08-02
   status Pending
2. 2024-08-02
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2024-07-26
   price $159,000
4. 2024-07-02
   listed $179,000 Active
5. 2016-03-02
   soldstatus $38,000
6. 2015-12-31
   historical
7. 2015-09-28
   price $54,900
8. 2015-07-01
   listed $59,900 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,446 · $120/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,446 · $120/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 39% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,447
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,906
• − Property taxes: −$1,446
• − Insurance: −$795
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,316
• − Management: −$1,316
• − Depreciation: −$4,625
• Taxable loss: −$1,957
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$470
• After-tax cash flow: $1,217/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Vance County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3704650
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 27% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $34,323
• Composite: 19.29/100
• National rank: #8801
• State rank: #166 of 178 in NC

Livability — South Henderson

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #710
• US rank: #25701

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B+ Employment F Housing F Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 23,795

Population outlook (Vance County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 41,985 people
• By 2030: 40,286 · -4.0%
• By 2040: 36,372 · -13.4%
• By 2050: 32,466 · -22.7%
• By 2075: 24,229 · -42.3%
• By 2100: 17,784 · -57.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.62)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Black 42% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 5% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 4% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 5%

Political lean MEDSL · Vance

• 2024 margin: D (+13.3) · D 56.3% · R 42.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.3pp toward R · 2008: 26.6pp · 2024: 13.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+13.3 2020: D+19.2 2016: D+24.6 2012: D+28.3 2008: D+26.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -21.06%
• Current HPI: 270.3424
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+165.4% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2024-08-02 Pending — TMLS
• 2024-08-02 Contingent — TMLS
• 2024-07-26 Price Changed $159,000 TMLS
• 2024-07-02 Listed $179,000 TMLS
• 2016-03-02 Sold (Public Records) $38,000 Public Records
• 2015-12-31 Listing Removed — TMLS
• 2015-09-28 Price Changed $54,900 TMLS
• 2015-07-01 Listed $59,900 TMLS

Property tax history

+8.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,446 · +3.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.