26382 Cedar Sedge Dr · Tomball, TX 77355

$239,090

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,777 sqft · Land · 112 Days on market

Built 2026 $54/mo HOA · 3% of rent ↓ 15% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +5.8/10.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

READY NOW! Enjoy the charm in this spacious one-story Afton plan by Centex Homes. This home features 4 bedrooms, a large family room, and a spa-inspired shower in the primary en-suite. The secondary bath offers an extended vanity for added comfort. The kitchen boasts Liberty White shaker cabinets, soft-close drawers, gas cooking, and a walk-in pantry. Relax on the covered patio overlooking a fully fenced, sodded yard with a sprinkler system. Located in Magnolia and zoned to top-rated Tomball ISD, the Decker Farms community offers a park, playground, trails, and easy access to shopping, dining, and major highways. This home blends style, function, and location perfectly!

Key facts

• Soft close drawers
• Extended vanity
• Gas cooking

Tags

• SPA INSPIRED SHOWER
• EXTENDED VANITY
• LIBERTY WHITE SHAKER CABINETS
• SOFT CLOSE DRAWERS
• GAS COOKING
• WALK IN PANTRY

🏗️ New construction. Builder plan / spec listing (the home may be to-be-built); metrics use comparable previous sales.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath land listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $183 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $213k (10.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $213k (10.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 2.7% in Tomball — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#155 in TX, #4,239 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Tomball ISD (suburban): math 66% / reading 63% proficiency, ranked #25 of 826 in TX (top 3%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Grand Lakes J H (969 students, 29% FRL); Tomball H S (math 74% / reading 69%, grade B+, #111 of 1,632 statewide, top 7%, 2,801 students, 34% FRL).
• Market conditions: 553 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 112 days — a 9% lower offer ($218k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $213,121 (10.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 112 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.21%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.29%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-27,129
• Equity at exit: $35,649

10-year hold

• IRR: -1.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.87×
• Total profit: $-8,838
• Equity at exit: $20,672

Cash invested: $66,945 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77355

• Home prices YoY: -30.3%
• Active inventory: 553
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,131 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,254
• Tax from tax record: −$93 /mo · $1,115/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$54
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$448
• Net cashflow: $183

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,899

Max offer price $239,090

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,772
• Closing costs: $7,173
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $54 · $648/yr
• Likely covers: gas

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   price $239,090
3. 2026-03-05
   price $259,990
4. 2026-01-30
   price $277,980
5. 2025-12-19
   listed $282,230 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,115 · $93/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,375 · $365/mo
• Expected delta: +$3,260/yr (+$272/mo · 292.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,575
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,393
• − Property taxes: −$1,115
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,046
• − Management: −$2,046
• − HOA: −$648
• − Depreciation: −$6,955
• Taxable loss: −$1,824
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$438
• After-tax cash flow: $2,637/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tomball ISD
• NCES district ID: 4842960
• Math proficiency: 66% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 63% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $86,552
• Composite: 58.32/100
• National rank: #1014
• State rank: #25 of 826 in TX

Livability — Tomball

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #155
• US rank: #4239

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C+ Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety B+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 113,991
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 32,847
• Household income: $102,066
• Rent vs Own: 17.3% rent · 82.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 209.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 14% Black 2% Native American 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 18%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Serbian 2% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.90%
• Current HPI: 268.5845
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-15.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-19 Price Changed $239,090 HARMLS
• 2026-03-05 Price Changed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-30 Price Changed $277,980 HARMLS
• 2025-12-19 Listed $282,230 HARMLS