6714 Lonesome Dove Ln · Midland, TX 79705

$304,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,515 sqft · SingleFamily · 13 Days on market

Built 2022 Good condition 5,140 sqft lot $201/sqft · at area comps Est $306k · at est. $23/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +12.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.8/15.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• 1% rule +3.4/10.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

GORGEOUS, FULLY LOADED SMART HOME! 3BR/2BA FEATURING DESIGNER ACCENT WALLS, MODERN FIXTURES & UPGRADED HARDWARE. CONVEYS WITH PAID-OFF VIVINT SECURITY, ECOBEE W/ AIR QUALITY ALERTS, & MYQ GARAGE. SMART GOVEE & SOLAR LIGHTING PACKS THE INTERIOR/EXTERIOR. KITCHEN INCLUDES PREMIUM FRIDGE & DISHWASHER UNTIL 2028 UNDER WARRANTY! RETREAT TO THE BACK PATIO WITH A STAINED PERGOLA & FRESH LANDSCAPING. AN INTUITIVE FLOOR PLAN FLOWS SEAMLESSLY FROM LIVING TO KITCHEN. MOVE-IN READY FOR THE TECH-SAVVY BUYER—UNMATCHED VALUE YOU WON'T FIND ANYWHERE ELSE IN LONE STAR TRAILS!

Key facts

• Stained pergola
• Smart govee
• Solar lighting

Tags

• FULLY LOADED SMART HOME
• PAID-OFF VIVINT SECURITY
• ECOBEE W AIR QUALITY ALERTS
• SMART GOVEE
• SOLAR LIGHTING
• STAINED PERGOLA

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.118 acre
• HOA & community: Homeowners association with an annual fee of $275 (about $22.92/month)

Exterior

• Parking: 2-car garage with garage door opener
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property; Single-story
• Construction: Brick veneer construction; Composition roof; Slab foundation; Built as residential single family
• Exterior features: Covered patio; Patio; Wood fencing

Interior

• Kitchen: Oven; Electric range; Range; Microwave; Dishwasher; Disposal; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (natural gas); Central air; Ceiling fan(s)
• Interior features: Pantry; Smoke detector(s); Security system
• Laundry & utility: Dryer; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $304k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-74 ($-888/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $291k (4.3% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $255k (16.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $255k (16.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.7% in Midland — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 79/100 on livability (#57 in TX, #2,192 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: crime C-, commute D+, amenities D.
• Midland ISD (urban): math 34% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #477 of 826 in TX (top 58%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Santa Rita El (math 43% / reading 39%, grade F, #1,462 of 4,322 statewide, top 34%, 596 students, 45% FRL); Goddard J H (math 23% / reading 32%, grade F, #1,156 of 1,662 statewide, top 71%, 1,024 students, 58% FRL, charter); Midland H S (math 37% / reading 7%, grade F, #1,366 of 1,632 statewide, top 84%, 2,492 students, 44% FRL) — zoned schools at 49% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 452 active listings in the ZIP; 32 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,504 units permitted in Midland County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Midland County population projected at +83% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 13 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $254,592 (16.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.84% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.00%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.04%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 10.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $306,231
• List price: $304,000
• Delta: -0.73%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 4 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.56% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-55,068
• Equity at exit: $45,327

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-58,468
• Equity at exit: $26,284

Cash invested: $85,120 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 79705

• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 452
• Price-to-rent: 10.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,546 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,594
• Tax from tax record: −$341 /mo · $4,097/yr
• Insurance: −$127
• HOA: −$23
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$535
• Net cashflow: $-74

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,640

Max offer price $290,927

Occupancy floor 98%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $98	-5% $12	+0% $-74	+5% $-160	+10% $-246
Rent	-10% $-275	-5% $-175	+0% $-74	+5% $27	+10% $127
Rate	-1.0pp $79	-0.5pp $3	base $-74	+0.5pp $-153	+1.0pp $-233

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $76,000
• Closing costs: $9,120
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 32 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2703 Ranch Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1658	$2,350	$1.42	23d	1	0.24mi
6735 Draw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2050	$2,500	$1.22	45d	1	0.25mi
2702 Southwest St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1844	$2,500	$1.36	45d	1	0.26mi
6220 Kingsville St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1312	$2,400	$1.83	15d	1	0.50mi
2409 Husk St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1927	$2,800	$1.45	15d	1	0.52mi
2409 Husk St Unit 1 Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1800	$3,000	$1.67	15d	1	0.52mi
6109 Buckthorn Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1655	$2,900	$1.75	23d	1	0.66mi
2908 Yellowhouse Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1515	$2,650	$1.75	23d	1	0.71mi
6914 Outlaw Ct Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2123	$3,250	$1.53	15d	1	0.73mi
2060 Acacia Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	2050	$3,100	$1.51	15d	1	0.75mi
5917 Praline St Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1251	$2,500	$2.00	23d	1	0.79mi
6801 Baron Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	2058	$3,150	$1.53	15d	1	0.82mi
2912 Pitchfork Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1119	$2,100	$1.88	23d	1	0.83mi
2716 River Bend Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1517	$2,600	$1.71	45d	1	0.84mi
2808 Lighthouse Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1168	$2,300	$1.97	45d	1	0.85mi
2808 Longfellow Rd Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1422	$2,400	$1.69	23d	1	0.86mi
5920 Woodpecker Way Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1669	$3,800	$2.28	45d	1	0.87mi
2944 Hidalgo Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1689	$3,800	$2.25	45d	1	0.87mi
6812 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1450	$2,500	$1.72	15d	1	1.01mi
6333 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$2,500	$1.85	23d	1	1.01mi
6809 Brush Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$2,500	$1.71	15d	1	1.03mi
5817 Settler Ave Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,600	$1.83	45d	1	1.06mi
6011 Purtis Creek Dr Midland, TX	4.0	2.0	1722	$2,900	$1.68	45d	1	1.07mi
6105 Poppy Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1421	$2,700	$1.90	45d	1	1.14mi
1708 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1694	$2,550	$1.51	45d	1	1.18mi
1704 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$2,500	$1.67	23d	1	1.20mi
1621 Revolution Dr Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1504	$2,500	$1.66	45d	1	1.21mi
1508 Rattler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1578	$2,250	$1.43	15d	1	1.34mi
1501 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1960	$2,750	$1.40	15d	1	1.38mi
6706 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1819	$2,800	$1.54	45d	1	1.45mi
1315 Yellow Rose Ct Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,600	$1.62	15d	1	1.48mi
1310 Wrangler Ln Midland, TX	3.0	2.0	1387	$2,400	$1.73	23d	1	1.48mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $23 · $276/yr
• Likely covers: landscapingsecurity

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $304,000 Active 13 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $304,000 Active 11 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $304,000 Active 10 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $304,000 Active 9 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $304,000 Active 8 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $304,000 Active 7 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $304,000 Active 5 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $304,000 Active 4 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $304,000 Active 2 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on marketlisting id $304,000 Active 1 DOM
11. 2026-06-08
    pricedays on market $304,000 Active 36 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $309,900 Active 35 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $309,900 Active 31 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $309,900 Active 30 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $309,900 Active 29 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $309,900 Active 28 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    pricedays on market $309,900 Active 27 DOM
18. 2026-05-17
    price $314,000 600-char remark
19. 2026-05-11
    price $317,900 600-char remark
20. 2026-05-03
    listed $323,000 Active 600-char remark
21. 2025-01-21
    soldstatus
22. 2024-11-29
    price $299,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,097 · $341/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,563 · $464/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,466/yr (+$122/mo · 35.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥102°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 6% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,551
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,029
• − Property taxes: −$4,097
• − Insurance: −$1,520
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,444
• − Management: −$2,444
• − HOA: −$276
• − Depreciation: −$8,844
• Taxable loss: −$6,102
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,465
• After-tax cash flow: $577/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Good 75/100 Cosmetic rehab

This fully loaded smart home is move-in ready with modern fixtures and designer accents. Smart home upgrades and landscaping improvements can further enhance its value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Smart home upgrades — Enhances both resale and rental appeal with modern technology.
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value.
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can enhance the home's appeal and value.
• Both Smart home security system — Improves safety and adds value for potential buyers and renters.
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures the HVAC system is in good condition, which is important for rental properties.

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Smart home upgrades — Enhances both resale and rental appeal with modern technology. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhances curb appeal and can increase property value. ↑
• Both Interior updates — Fresh paint and minor updates can enhance the home's appeal and value. ↑
• Both Smart home security system — Improves safety and adds value for potential buyers and renters. ↑
• Rental HVAC maintenance — Ensures the HVAC system is in good condition, which is important for rental properties. ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Midland ISD
• NCES district ID: 4830570
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $63,457
• Composite: 31.63/100
• National rank: #5938
• State rank: #477 of 826 in TX

Livability — Midland

• Score: 79/100
• State rank: #57
• US rank: #2192

Category grades

Amenities D Commute D+ Cost of living A Crime C- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Midland, TX
• County: Midland County · 168,494 people
• City population: 168,494
• Metro: Midland, TX
• Population (ZIP): 46,653
• Household income: $105,310
• Rent vs Own: 28.8% rent · 71.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1557.0

Population outlook (Midland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 220,895 people
• By 2030: 253,667 · +14.8%
• By 2040: 325,498 · +47.4%
• By 2050: 404,168 · +83.0%
• By 2075: 609,802 · +176.1%
• By 2100: 760,172 · +244.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.60)
• Race & ethnicity: White 46% Hispanic / Latino 43% Two or more races 20% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 35%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 24% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Midland

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+60.5) · D 19.3% · R 79.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.3pp toward R · 2008: -57.3pp · 2024: -60.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+60.5 2020: R+56.6 2016: R+55.2 2012: R+61.5 2008: R+57.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -300.44%
• Current HPI: 207.2904
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.56%
• Metro: Midland, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+1.7% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-08 Listed $304,000 PBBOR
• 2026-06-07 Price Changed $304,000 PBBOR
• 2026-05-29 Price Changed $309,900 PBBOR
• 2026-05-17 Price Changed $314,000 PBBOR
• 2026-05-11 Price Changed $317,900 PBBOR
• 2025-01-21 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2024-11-29 Price Changed $299,000 PBBOR

Property tax history

+133.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,097 · -4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.