3645 Lyric Ave · Orono, MN 55391

$325,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,695 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 41 Days on market

Built 1989 0.56 ac lot $192/sqft · 20% below area Est $394k · 18% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.3/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Fantastic twin home in the heart of Lake Minnetonka with NO HOA on over a 1/2 acre. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts many updates throughout, including all new LVP flooring, carpet, and a fresh coat of paint from top to bottom. The main-level vaulted kitchen features all-new stainless-steel appliances and a casual dining space. Generously-sized bedrooms with private views. The lower-level walkout family room opens up to an expansive flat backyard and oversized patio. New windows in 2022. A half-acre of privacy all to yourself! Quiet street and convenient location to the Dakota Trail, breweries & restaurants, lake access, and much, much more.

Key facts

• 0.56 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1989

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $325k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $238 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $291k (10.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $291k (10.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 0.4% in Orono — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 67/100 on livability (#457 in MN) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, cost of living F, health & safety F.
• Westonka Public School District (rural): math 65% / reading 68% proficiency, ranked #14 of 301 in MN (top 5%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 204 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 4,651 units permitted in Hennepin County in 2024 (2,443 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Hennepin County population projected at +30% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 41 days — a 3% lower offer ($315k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 5 sale attempts since 32y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $50k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $164k; list at $325k implies a 98% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $290,655 (10.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 41 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.17%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.14%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $394,222
• List price: $325,000
• Delta: -17.56%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-37,547
• Equity at exit: $48,459

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-13,430
• Equity at exit: $28,100

Cash invested: $91,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 46 Balanced
• State Minnesota: 46 Balanced · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

2024 reforms strengthened tenant protections; ramsey/hennepin courts paced moderate to slow.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 55391

• Active inventory: 204
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,907 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,704
• Tax from tax record: −$218 /mo · $2,615/yr
• Insurance: −$135
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$610
• Net cashflow: $238

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,605

Max offer price $325,000

Occupancy floor 87%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $81,250
• Closing costs: $9,750
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4201 Sunset Dr Spring Park, MN	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1369	$4,052	$2.96	1d	1	0.50mi

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-05-02
   price $350,000 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   Fantastic twin home in the heart of Lake Minnetonka with NO HOA on over a 1/2 acre. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts many updates throughout, including all new LVP flooring, carpet, and a fresh coat of paint from top to bottom. The main-level vaulted kitchen features all-new stainless-steel appliances and a casual dining space. Generously-sized bedrooms with private views. The lower-level walkout family room opens up to an expansive flat backyard and oversized patio. New windows in 2022. A half-acre of privacy all to yourself! Quiet street and convenient location to the Dakota Trail, breweries & restaurants, lake access, and much, much more.

2. 2026-04-15
   listed $375,000 Active 660-char remark

   Show marketing remark (660 chars)

   Fantastic twin home in the heart of Lake Minnetonka with NO HOA on over a 1/2 acre. This 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom home boasts many updates throughout, including all new LVP flooring, carpet, and a fresh coat of paint from top to bottom. The main-level vaulted kitchen features all-new stainless-steel appliances and a casual dining space. Generously-sized bedrooms with private views. The lower-level walkout family room opens up to an expansive flat backyard and oversized patio. New windows in 2022. A half-acre of privacy all to yourself! Quiet street and convenient location to the Dakota Trail, breweries & restaurants, lake access, and much, much more.

3. 2001-08-24
   soldstatus $164,000
4. 1997-09-02
   soldstatus $110,000
5. 1997-08-12
   soldstatus $110,000
6. 1997-08-12
   soldstatus $110,000
7. 1997-08-11
   historical
8. 1997-06-25
   historical
9. 1997-05-15
   listed $118,000
10. 1997-05-15
    listed $118,000
11. 1995-06-01
    soldstatus $97,000
12. 1995-03-27
    historical
13. 1995-03-03
    historical
14. 1994-11-21
    listed $99,900
15. 1994-11-04
    listed $99,900

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MN · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $2,615 · $218/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,128 · $261/mo
• Expected delta: +$512/yr (+$43/mo · 19.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥98°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,879
• − Mortgage interest: −$18,205
• − Property taxes: −$2,615
• − Insurance: −$1,625
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,790
• − Management: −$2,790
• − Depreciation: −$9,455
• Taxable loss: −$2,602
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$624
• After-tax cash flow: $3,486/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Westonka Public School District
• NCES district ID: 2722920
• Math proficiency: 65% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 68% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $80,965
• Composite: 59.42/100
• National rank: #928
• State rank: #14 of 301 in MN

Livability — Orono

• Score: 67/100
• State rank: #457
• US rank: #10907

Category grades

Amenities F Commute A Cost of living F Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Orono, MN
• County: Hennepin County · 1,150,272 people
• City population: 5,696
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• Population (ZIP): 15,502
• Household income: $174,301
• Rent vs Own: 18.2% rent · 81.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 396.0

Population outlook (Hennepin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,405,227 people
• By 2030: 1,492,650 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 1,660,157 · +18.1%
• By 2050: 1,823,498 · +29.8%
• By 2075: 2,221,283 · +58.1%
• By 2100: 2,509,976 · +78.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (89%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 89% Asian 4% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 11% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 4%
• Foreign-born: 8% · Canada, China, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 92% English-only · Chinese 3% Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hennepin

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+42.6) · D 70.2% · R 27.5% · Other 2.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.0pp toward D · 2008: 28.6pp · 2024: 42.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+42.6 2020: D+43.2 2016: D+35.3 2012: D+27.1 2008: D+28.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -535.45%
• Current HPI: 268.3001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.41%
• F500 in state: 34

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MN)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	2	$407B
▸Retail	2	$150B
▸Consumer Goods	2	$32B
▸Industrial Machinery	2	$6B
▸Agriculture	1	$40B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$32B

Price history

+250.4% since first listed

15 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-02 Price Changed $350,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-15 Listed $375,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2001-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $164,000 Public Records
• 1997-09-02 Sold (Public Records) $110,000 Public Records
• 1997-08-12 Sold (MLS) $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-12 Sold (MLS) $110,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-08-11 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-06-25 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-05-15 Listed $118,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1997-05-15 Listed $118,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-06-01 Sold (MLS) $97,000 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-03-27 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1995-03-03 Listing Removed — NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-11-21 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-11-04 Listed $99,900 NORTHSTARMLS as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

+3.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,615 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.