409 6th Ave NE · Hazen, ND 58545

$164,000

4 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,567 sqft · Other · 8 Days on market

Built 1978 7,000 sqft lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.0/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Key facts

• 7,000 sq ft lot
• Garage
• Built 1978

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 car)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Single family residence; Residential property
• Construction: Masonite exterior; Block foundation; Built area above grade: 1,567
• Exterior features: Shingle roof; Shed(s); Level lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (propane); No cooling
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator; Unfinished basement with sump pump

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/1.5-bath other listed at $164k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $111 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $141k (14.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $141k (14.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#25 in ND, #4,265 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety D-.
• Hazen 3 (rural): math 41% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #22 of 53 in ND (top 42%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; only 14% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 38 active listings in the ZIP; 15 units permitted in Mercer County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $18k of equity ($1k loan paydown + $16k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Mercer County population projected at +38% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $46k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$44k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 10y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $138k; 19% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Recommended offer $140,642 (14.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.10%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.90%
• DSCR: 1.13
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.4%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $96,316
• Equity at exit: $147,744

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.1%
• Equity multiple: 7.05×
• Total profit: $277,964
• Equity at exit: $318,616

Cash invested: $45,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Dakota: 82 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+20
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 58545

• Home prices YoY: 8.1%
• Active inventory: 38
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,406 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$860
• Tax from tax record: −$72 /mo · $863/yr
• Insurance: −$68
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$295
• Net cashflow: $111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,266

Max offer price $164,000

Occupancy floor 87%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $204	-5% $157	+0% $111	+5% $64	+10% $18
Rent	-10% $0	-5% $55	+0% $111	+5% $166	+10% $222
Rate	-1.0pp $193	-0.5pp $153	base $111	+0.5pp $68	+1.0pp $25

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,000
• Closing costs: $4,920
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-12
   days on market $164,000 Active 8 DOM
2. 2026-06-09
   days on market $164,000 Active 5 DOM
3. 2026-06-08
   days on market $164,000 Active 4 DOM
4. 2026-06-07
   days on market $164,000 Active 3 DOM
5. 2026-06-05
   listed $164,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast ND · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $863 · $72/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,607 · $134/mo
• Expected delta: +$745/yr (+$62/mo · 86.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,877
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,187
• − Property taxes: −$863
• − Insurance: −$820
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,350
• − Management: −$1,350
• − Depreciation: −$4,771
• Taxable loss: −$1,463
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$351
• After-tax cash flow: $1,681/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Hazen 3
• NCES district ID: 3800031
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,408
• Composite: 39.02/100
• National rank: #4066
• State rank: #22 of 53 in ND

Livability — Hazen

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #25
• US rank: #4265

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D- User ratings D-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Hazen, ND
• Population (ZIP): 3,278

Population outlook (Mercer County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,891 people
• By 2030: 10,506 · +6.2%
• By 2040: 11,872 · +20.0%
• By 2050: 13,612 · +37.6%
• By 2075: 19,871 · +100.9%
• By 2100: 25,938 · +162.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (90%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 90% Two or more races 2% Hispanic / Latino 2% Black 1% Native American 1%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 15% Scotch-Irish 5% Iranian 3%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada
• Languages at home: 96% English-only · German/W. Germanic 2% Spanish 1% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mercer

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+69.0) · D 14.8% · R 83.8% · Other 1.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -39.2pp toward R · 2008: -29.9pp · 2024: -69.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+69.0 2020: R+67.4 2016: R+67.9 2012: R+44.9 2008: R+29.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 23.62%
• Current HPI: 315.26
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.09%
• F500 in state: 2

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in ND)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Utilities / Construction	1	$6B

Price history

+107.6% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Listed $164,000 GNMLS
• 2025-08-22 Price Changed $169,500 GNMLS
• 2025-03-18 Price Changed $195,000 GNMLS
• 2017-03-30 Sold (MLS) — GNMLS
• 2016-10-04 Listed $177,500 GNMLS
• 2014-07-17 Sold (Public Records) $138,000 Public Records
• 2011-12-08 Sold (Public Records) $79,000 Public Records