1841 Fair Oak Ct · Rochester Hills, MI 48309

$455,000

5 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,514 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 56 Days on market

Built 1960 0.48 ac lot $181/sqft · 29% above area Est $531k · 14% under $21/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.4/30.0
• ARV discount +13.9/15.0
• Schools +5.9/10.0
• DSCR +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• 1% rule +3.6/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious and beautifully updated, this 5-bedroom, 2 full bathroom raised ranch offers over 2,500 sq ft of comfortable living space. The fully finished walkout lower level adds versatility, perfect for entertaining or extended family living. The heart of the home is the stunning kitchen, featuring stainless steel appliances and modern finishes. Wood flooring runs throughout the home - including beneath most carpeted areas - adding warmth and long-term value. Recent updates include fresh paint, new interior doors, a new AC unit, an upgraded electrical panel, and a newer roof, giving peace of mind for years to come. Situated on a quiet court with no through traffic, this home offers both privacy and a family-friendly setting. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to University Hills Elementary and West Middle School, part of the highly regarded Rochester School district. You're also just a couple of blocks from the Heart of the Hills Swim and Tennis Club. This move-in-ready home combines space, updates, and location - an exceptional opportunity you won't want to miss.

Key facts

• 0.48 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1960

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $455k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $339 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $393k (13.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $393k (13.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.2% vs local median 3.2% in Rochester Hills — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#127 in MI, #3,163 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: health & safety D, amenities F, commute F.
• Rochester Community School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 69% proficiency, ranked #21 of 540 in MI (top 4%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 10% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Market conditions: 149 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 2,614 units permitted in Oakland County in 2024 (721 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oakland County population projected at +10% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 56 days — a 3% lower offer ($441k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $78k; list at $455k implies a 483% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $392,502 (13.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 56 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 14% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.86% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.19%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.19%
• DSCR: 1.14
• GRM: 9.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $530,888
• List price: $455,000
• Delta: -14.29%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1510 Hampstead Ln	0.24mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,503 (-0%)	3mo	$435,000	$174	80
541 Lake Forest Rd	0.49mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,586 (+3%)	9mo	$475,000	$184	58
1612 N Bretton Dr	0.40mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,675 (+6%)	8mo	$500,000	$187	58
799 Croydon Rd	0.26mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,753 (+10%)	11mo	$500,000	$182	56
1525 Hampstead Ln	0.20mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,210 (-12%)	15mo	$510,000	$231	51
2334 Munster Rd	0.63mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,610 (+4%)	6mo	$488,000	$187	50
1538 Northumberland Dr	0.27mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,830 (+13%)	17mo	$515,000	$182	43
1770 Christian Hills Dr	0.74mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,711 (+8%)	6mo	$500,000	$184	40
625 Ten Point Dr	0.51mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,206 (-12%)	11mo	$460,000	$209	40
2152 Avoncrest Dr	0.59mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,840 (+13%)	6mo	$467,500	$165	39
604 Longford Dr	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,808 (+12%)	8mo	$527,000	$188	38
1493 Gracedale Dr	0.73mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,773 (+10%)	9mo	$544,000	$196	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.59×
• Total profit: $-52,344
• Equity at exit: $67,842

10-year hold

• IRR: -2.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-18,531
• Equity at exit: $39,340

Cash invested: $127,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 48309

• Active inventory: 149
• Price-to-rent: 9.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,925 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,386
• Tax from tax record: −$166 /mo · $1,987/yr
• Insurance: −$190
• HOA: −$21
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$824
• Net cashflow: $339

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,497

Max offer price $455,000

Occupancy floor 86%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $596	-5% $467	+0% $339	+5% $210	+10% $81
Rent	-10% $28	-5% $183	+0% $339	+5% $494	+10% $649
Rate	-1.0pp $568	-0.5pp $454	base $339	+0.5pp $221	+1.0pp $101

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $113,750
• Closing costs: $13,650
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1467 Rochdale Pond Ct Rochester Hills, MI	4.0	3.0	2510	$4,375	$1.74	24d	1	1.23mi
2147 Hickory Leaf Ct N Rochester Hills, MI	4.0	2.5	3089	$3,300	$1.07	3d	1	1.39mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $21 · $252/yr
• Likely covers: electric

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $455,000 Active 56 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $455,000 Active 55 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $455,000 Active 54 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $455,000 Active 53 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $455,000 Active 51 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $455,000 Active 50 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $455,000 Active 47 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $455,000 Active 46 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $455,000 Active 45 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $455,000 Active 42 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $455,000 Active 41 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    pricedays on market $455,000 Active 40 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $465,000 Active 39 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $465,000 Active 38 DOM
15. 2026-04-24
    listed $475,000 Active 1098-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1122 chars)

    Spacious and beautifully updated, this 5-bedroom, 2 full bathroom raised ranch offers over 2,500 sq ft of comfortable living space. The fully finished walkout lower level adds versatility, perfect for entertaining or extended family living. The heart of the home is the stunning kitchen, featuring stainless steel appliances and modern finishes. Wood flooring runs throughout the home—including beneath most carpeted areas—adding warmth and long-term value. Recent updates include fresh paint, new interior doors, a new AC unit, an upgraded electrical panel, and a newer roof, giving peace of mind for years to come. Situated on a quiet court with no through traffic, this home offers both privacy and a family-friendly setting. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to University Hills Elementary and West Middle School, part of the highly regarded Rochester School district. You’re also just a couple of blocks from the Heart of the Hills Swim and Tennis Club. This move-in-ready home combines space, updates, and location—an exceptional opportunity you won’t want to miss.

16. 2026-04-24
    listed $475,000 Active 1122-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1122 chars)

    Spacious and beautifully updated, this 5-bedroom, 2 full bathroom raised ranch offers over 2,500 sq ft of comfortable living space. The fully finished walkout lower level adds versatility, perfect for entertaining or extended family living. The heart of the home is the stunning kitchen, featuring stainless steel appliances and modern finishes. Wood flooring runs throughout the home—including beneath most carpeted areas—adding warmth and long-term value. Recent updates include fresh paint, new interior doors, a new AC unit, an upgraded electrical panel, and a newer roof, giving peace of mind for years to come. Situated on a quiet court with no through traffic, this home offers both privacy and a family-friendly setting. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to University Hills Elementary and West Middle School, part of the highly regarded Rochester School district. You’re also just a couple of blocks from the Heart of the Hills Swim and Tennis Club. This move-in-ready home combines space, updates, and location—an exceptional opportunity you won’t want to miss.

17. 2026-04-21
    historical $475,000 1098-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1098 chars)

    Spacious and beautifully updated, this 5-bedroom, 2 full bathroom raised ranch offers over 2,500 sq ft of comfortable living space. The fully finished walkout lower level adds versatility, perfect for entertaining or extended family living. The heart of the home is the stunning kitchen, featuring stainless steel appliances and modern finishes. Wood flooring runs throughout the home - including beneath most carpeted areas - adding warmth and long-term value. Recent updates include fresh paint, new interior doors, a new AC unit, an upgraded electrical panel, and a newer roof, giving peace of mind for years to come. Situated on a quiet court with no through traffic, this home offers both privacy and a family-friendly setting. Enjoy the convenience of being within walking distance to University Hills Elementary and West Middle School, part of the highly regarded Rochester School district. You're also just a couple of blocks from the Heart of the Hills Swim and Tennis Club. This move-in-ready home combines space, updates, and location - an exceptional opportunity you won't want to miss.

18. 1984-10-01
    soldstatus $78,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,987 · $166/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,497 · $375/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,510/yr (+$209/mo · 126.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $47,100
• − Mortgage interest: −$25,487
• − Property taxes: −$1,987
• − Insurance: −$2,275
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,768
• − Management: −$3,768
• − HOA: −$252
• − Depreciation: −$13,236
• Taxable loss: −$3,673
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$882
• After-tax cash flow: $4,944/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rochester Community School District
• NCES district ID: 2629940
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 69% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $89,242
• Composite: 58.53/100
• National rank: #994
• State rank: #21 of 540 in MI

Livability — Rochester Hills

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #127
• US rank: #3163

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety D User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Rochester Hills, MI
• City population: 44,714
• Population (ZIP): 30,254

Population outlook (Oakland County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,335,747 people
• By 2030: 1,375,100 · +2.9%
• By 2040: 1,435,385 · +7.5%
• By 2050: 1,469,250 · +10.0%
• By 2075: 1,531,946 · +14.7%
• By 2100: 1,450,485 · +8.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (75%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 75% Asian 12% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 4% Black 4%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 10% Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3%
• Foreign-born: 19% · Canada, China, South Korea
• Languages at home: 80% English-only · Other Indo-European 6% Chinese 3% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Oakland

• 2024 margin: D (+10.6) · D 54.4% · R 43.8% · Other 1.9%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.9pp toward R · 2008: 14.5pp · 2024: 10.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+10.6 2020: D+14.1 2016: D+8.1 2012: D+8.1 2008: D+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -136.99%
• Current HPI: 201.9197
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+509.0% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $475,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2026-04-24 Listed $475,000 REALCOMP
• 2026-04-21 Coming Soon $475,000 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 1984-10-01 Sold (Public Records) $78,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-4.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,987 · -45.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.