186 Pinckardsville Rd · Lancaster, VA 22503

$69,700

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,200 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 79 Days on market

Built 1982 0.76 ac lot

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +8.6/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +3.3/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +2.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Property is subject to auction, list price based upon appraisal, seller will not accept an offer to purchase prior to the scheduled auction. Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home. Work is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

Key facts

• 0.76 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1982

🔨 Auction listing. The $69,700 list price is a nominal opening bid, not a real ask — every metric below is computed on the estimated value $243,666 (ARV from comps), not the list price.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $70k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-210 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $70k).
• Recommended offer: $66k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 5.3% vs local median 1.3% in Lancaster — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 58/100 on livability (#489 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: health & safety A+, crime A, cost of living A; Watch: amenities F, commute F, employment F.
• Lancaster County Public School District (rural): math 27% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #125 of 131 in VA (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 64% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 117 active listings in the ZIP; 127 units permitted in Lancaster County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Lancaster County population projected at -34% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 79 days — a 6% lower offer ($66k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (27%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $50k; 39% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 78% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $65,517 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 79 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.65% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.26%
• Cash-on-cash: -3.69%
• DSCR: 0.84
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $243,666
• List price: $69,700
• Delta: -71.40%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 2 within 2.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -22.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.22×
• Total profit: $-52,963
• Equity at exit: $36,331

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.06×
• Total profit: $-63,802
• Equity at exit: $21,068

Cash invested: $68,226 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 22503

• Home prices YoY: -6.7%
• Active inventory: 117
• Price-to-rent: 3.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,574 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,278
• Tax from tax record: −$74 /mo · $892/yr
• Insurance: −$102
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$331
• Net cashflow: $-210

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,840

Max offer price $206,608

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,916
• Closing costs: $7,310
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $69,700 Active 79 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $69,700 Active 78 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $69,700 Active 77 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,700 Active 76 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $69,700 Active 75 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $69,700 Active 74 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $69,700 Active 73 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $69,700 Active 70 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $69,700 Active 69 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $69,700 Active 68 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $69,700 Active 66 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    price $69,700 Active 64 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $72,300 Active 64 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $72,300 Active 63 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $72,300 Active 62 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $72,300 Active 61 DOM
17. 2026-05-18
    price $72,300 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Property is subject to auction, list price based upon appraisal, seller will not accept an offer to purchase prior to the scheduled auction. Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home. Work is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

18. 2026-04-30
    price $81,300 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Property is subject to auction, list price based upon appraisal, seller will not accept an offer to purchase prior to the scheduled auction. Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home. Work is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

19. 2026-03-31
    listed $95,400 Active 384-char remark

    Show marketing remark (384 chars)

    Property is subject to auction, list price based upon appraisal, seller will not accept an offer to purchase prior to the scheduled auction. Opportunity awaits in this three bedroom, two bath home. Work is required to make this home move in ready but could be worth the effort. Whether you decide to customize this home for yourself or rent it out, this house could be a great option.

20. 2026-02-23
    historical
21. 2026-02-13
    price $83,700
22. 2026-01-28
    price $103,400
23. 2026-01-09
    listed $132,500 Active
24. 2003-12-02
    soldstatus $50,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $892 · $74/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $892 · $74/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 7/10 Severe 78% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,894
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,649
• − Property taxes: −$892
• − Insurance: −$1,218
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,512
• − Management: −$1,512
• − Depreciation: −$7,088
• Taxable loss: −$6,976
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,674
• After-tax cash flow: $-843/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Lancaster County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5102160
• Math proficiency: 27% ▼ -44.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -20.00%
• Median HH income: $48,210
• Composite: 32.58/100
• National rank: #5680
• State rank: #125 of 131 in VA

Livability — Lancaster

• Score: 58/100
• State rank: #489
• US rank: #21544

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A Crime A Employment F Housing F Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,046

Population outlook (Lancaster County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 9,870 people
• By 2030: 9,172 · -7.1%
• By 2040: 7,719 · -21.8%
• By 2050: 6,551 · -33.6%
• By 2075: 5,110 · -48.2%
• By 2100: 3,884 · -60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 35% Two or more races 3% Hispanic / Latino 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 2% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lancaster

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+7.0) · D 46.1% · R 53.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.1pp toward R · 2008: -5.9pp · 2024: -7.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+7.0 2020: R+4.6 2016: R+10.0 2012: R+8.6 2008: R+5.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -19.39%
• Current HPI: 271.6442
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+44.6% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Price Changed $72,300 CVRMLS
• 2026-04-30 Price Changed $81,300 CVRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $95,400 CVRMLS
• 2026-02-23 Listing Removed — CVRMLS
• 2026-02-13 Price Changed $83,700 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-28 Price Changed $103,400 CVRMLS
• 2026-01-09 Listed $132,500 CVRMLS
• 2003-12-02 Sold (Public Records) $50,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+5.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $892 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.