165 Danbury Ln · Calera, AL 35040

$169,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,023 sqft · Townhouse public records · 38 Days on market

Built 2011 2,787 sqft lot Est $175k · at est. $13/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +19.7/30.0
• ARV discount +8.8/15.0
• DSCR +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is. Cash preferred but will consider financed all offers. Seller is assisted by an Attorney in Fact. Do not knock on door or approach house without prior communication.

Key facts

• $13 HOA
• Built 2011
• Listed 38 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.064 acres; Located in Calera Commons subdivision
• Financial info: Has down payment assistance
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $150 (management fee included)

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway parking; Off-street parking; On-street parking
• Utilities: Public water; Connected sewer; Electric water heater; Underground utilities; Internet service available
• Home design: Single-story layout (all main level rooms); 4-side brick construction; Slab foundation; Existing construction
• Construction: 4-side brick exterior; Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Fenced yard; Open patio

Interior

• Kitchen: Stone countertops; Gas oven and gas stove; Double oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Bedrooms located on main level
• Flooring: Hardwood-look laminate floors
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; Tub/shower combos
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Recessed lighting; Ceilings: other (see remarks)
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup; Laundry closet on main level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $170k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $199 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $156k (8.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $156k (8.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.7% vs local median 4.5% in Calera — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 59/100 on livability (#325 in AL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, employment A-; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Shelby County (suburban): math 30% / reading 58% proficiency, ranked #16 of 129 in AL (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Calera Elementary (752 students, 64% FRL); Calera High (math 18% / reading 21%, grade F, #169 of 305 statewide, top 59%, 1,066 students, 59% FRL) — zoned schools average 62% FRL vs 26% district-wide (36 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 20% at this address vs 44% district-wide (-24 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Shelby County average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.7%/yr); 374 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 4d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 987 units permitted in Shelby County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Shelby County population projected at +23% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 38 days — a 3% lower offer ($165k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; list at $170k implies a 89% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 60% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $156,185 (8.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 38 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.70%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.02%
• DSCR: 1.22
• GRM: 9.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $174,933
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
165 Danbury Ln	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,023 (0%)	1mo	$169,900	$166	99
2047 Rossburg Pl	0.75mi	2/2.0	1,072 (+5%)	10mo	$183,000	$171	48

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.67% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.71×
• Total profit: $-13,849
• Equity at exit: $25,333

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.18×
• Total profit: $8,430
• Equity at exit: $14,690

Cash invested: $47,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35040

• Home prices YoY: -16.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.7%
• Active inventory: 374
• Price-to-rent: 9.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,562 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$891
• Tax from tax record: −$60 /mo · $719/yr
• Insurance: −$71
• HOA: −$13
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$328
• Net cashflow: $199

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,310

Max offer price $169,900

Occupancy floor 82%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $295	-5% $247	+0% $199	+5% $151	+10% $103
Rent	-10% $76	-5% $137	+0% $199	+5% $261	+10% $323
Rate	-1.0pp $285	-0.5pp $242	base $199	+0.5pp $155	+1.0pp $110

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $42,475
• Closing costs: $5,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
916 Daventry Trl Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1331	$1,550	$1.16	2d	1	0.34mi
2027 Rossburg Pl Calera, AL	2.0	2.0	1073	$1,300	$1.21	24d	1	0.77mi
2000 Rossburg Pl Calera, AL	2.0	2.0	1142	$1,500	$1.31	3d	1	0.81mi
680 The Heights Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.5	1397	$1,750	$1.25	2d	1	1.01mi
699 The Heights Ln Calera, AL	2.0	2.5	1100	$1,400	$1.27	11d	1	1.02mi
192 Stonecreek Pl Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,738	$1.42	3d	1	1.09mi
115 Charlton Ln Calera, AL	3.0	2.0	1367	$1,695	$1.24	44d	1	1.45mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $13 · $156/yr

Listing history 8 events

1. 2026-05-08
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-23
   historical Contingent
3. 2026-03-31
   listed $169,900 Active
4. 2026-03-29
   historical $169,900
5. 2026-03-10
   soldstatus $90,000
6. 2026-01-30
   soldstatus $115,000 Sold 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is. Cash preferred but will consider financed all offers. Seller is assisted by an Attorney in Fact. Do not knock on door or approach house without prior communication.

7. 2026-01-12
   status Pending 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is. Cash preferred but will consider financed all offers. Seller is assisted by an Attorney in Fact. Do not knock on door or approach house without prior communication.

8. 2026-01-05
   listed $119,000 Active 309-char remark

   Show marketing remark (309 chars)

   Attention investors and DIY enthusiasts! Multiple exit strategies: finish this remodel then either flip, rent or move in! Home being sold as is. Cash preferred but will consider financed all offers. Seller is assisted by an Attorney in Fact. Do not knock on door or approach house without prior communication.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $719 · $60/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 60% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,742
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,517
• − Property taxes: −$719
• − Insurance: −$850
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,499
• − Management: −$1,499
• − HOA: −$156
• − Depreciation: −$4,943
• Taxable loss: −$441
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$106
• After-tax cash flow: $2,496/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Shelby County
• NCES district ID: 0103030
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 58% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $66,672
• Composite: 39.29/100
• National rank: #3995
• State rank: #16 of 129 in AL

Livability — Calera

• Score: 59/100
• State rank: #325
• US rank: #19917

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Calera, AL
• County: Shelby County · 188,970 people
• City population: 19,304
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• Population (ZIP): 19,304
• Household income: $84,554
• Rent vs Own: 21.1% rent · 78.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 388.0

Population outlook (Shelby County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 237,024 people
• By 2030: 249,868 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 272,778 · +15.1%
• By 2050: 291,062 · +22.8%
• By 2075: 326,049 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 335,870 · +41.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 59% Black 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 7%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Italian 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 6% Arabic 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Shelby

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+40.9) · D 29.0% · R 69.9% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +12.6pp toward D · 2008: -53.4pp · 2024: -40.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+40.9 2020: R+40.4 2016: R+50.3 2012: R+55.6 2008: R+53.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -43.58%
• Current HPI: 220.2843
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.67%
• Metro: Birmingham-Hoover, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+42.8% since first listed

8 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-08 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-04-23 Contingent — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-31 Listed $169,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-29 Coming Soon $169,900 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-03-10 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2026-01-30 Sold (MLS) $115,000 Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-12 Pending — Greater Alabama MLS
• 2026-01-05 Listed $119,000 Greater Alabama MLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $719 · +1.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.