196 Cottage St · Middletown, NY 10940

$299,900

5 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,382 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1920 6,000 sqft lot Est $323k · 7% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.0/30.0
• ARV discount +10.8/15.0
• DSCR +8.7/10.0
• 1% rule +7.0/10.0
• Rent growth +4.6/5.0
• Schools +4.2/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move right into this beautifully updated Middletown home! Recent improvements include a brand-new bathroom, refinished hardwood floors, fresh interior and exterior paint, and new lighting and fixtures throughout. The home offers a bright and functional layout, a full unfinished basement, and a walk-up attic providing abundant storage and future potential. A newer roof adds additional value and peace of mind. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, schools, and major commuter routes. A great opportunity for owner-occupants and investors alike!

Key facts

• New lighting
• New bathroom
• Fresh interior paint

Tags

• NEW BATHROOM
• HARDWOOD FLOORS
• FRESH INTERIOR PAINT
• FRESH EXTERIOR PAINT
• NEW LIGHTING
• FULL UNFINISHED BASEMENT

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Public trash collection
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area per public records
• Construction: Frame construction
• Exterior features: Frame construction; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: 8 total rooms (includes bedrooms and living spaces)
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Unfinished full basement; Full attic

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $300k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $744 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($4k rent vs $300k).
• Cap rate 9.3% vs local median 3.3% in Middletown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#79 in NY, #1,219 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: commute C-.
• Middletown City School District (suburban): math 41% / reading 55% proficiency, ranked #411 of 590 in NY (top 70%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Presidential Park Elementary School (math 19% / reading 37%, grade F, #1,774 of 2,108 statewide, top 84%, 1,300 students, 76% FRL); Middletown Twin Towers Middle School (math 10% / reading 42%, grade F, #595 of 729 statewide, top 82%, 858 students, 78% FRL); Middletown High School (math 90% / reading 92%, grade A+, #203 of 1,100 statewide, top 20%, 2,523 students, 71% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+8.2%/yr); 273 active listings in the ZIP; 2 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; solid renter incomes; 1,746 units permitted in Orange County in 2024 (1,265 in 5+ unit buildings).
• At $3,602/mo this rent would consume 50% of the median local household income ($87k/yr) (locally 1846% of renters already pay >50% of income on rent) — very limited rent-growth headroom before tenants either downsize or default.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 8.0% rent growth), your $84k cash investment doubles in ~7 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $210k; 43% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1920 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $299,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1920 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.20% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 10.64%
• DSCR: 1.47
• GRM: 6.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,388
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
106 N Beacon St	0.36mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,380 (-0%)	19mo	$307,500	$223	58
193 Highland Ave	0.48mi	4/1.5 (-1)	1,396 (+1%)	22mo	$285,000	$204	51
184 Highland Ave	0.46mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,486 (+8%)	9mo	$347,500	$234	50
19 Robertson Dr	0.11mi	5/2.0	1,574 (+14%)	23mo	$375,000	$238	49

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 8.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 5.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.21×
• Total profit: $17,921
• Equity at exit: $44,716

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.8%
• Equity multiple: 2.95×
• Total profit: $163,585
• Equity at exit: $25,930

Cash invested: $83,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 10940

• Home prices YoY: -18.7%
• Rents YoY: 8.2%
• Active inventory: 273
• Price-to-rent: 6.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,602 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$404 /mo · $4,843/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$756
• Net cashflow: $744

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,660

Max offer price $299,900

Occupancy floor 74%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,975
• Closing costs: $8,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 2 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
184 Highland Ave Middletown, NY	4.0	2.0	1486	$3,500	$2.36	23d	1	0.47mi
7 Mulberry St Middletown, NY	4.0	1.5	1696	$2,800	$1.65	44d	1	1.11mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-18
   remarks 552-char remark
2. 2026-06-18
   listed $299,900 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,843 · $404/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,955 · $413/mo
• Expected delta: +$113/yr (+$9/mo · 2.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 10% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $43,224
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,799
• − Property taxes: −$4,843
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,458
• − Management: −$3,458
• − Depreciation: −$8,724
• Taxable income: $4,443
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,066
• After-tax cash flow: $7,866/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Middletown City School District
• NCES district ID: 3619320
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -2.00%
• Reading proficiency: 55% ▲ 19.00%
• Median HH income: $54,612
• Composite: 41.52/100
• National rank: #3453
• State rank: #411 of 590 in NY

Livability — Middletown

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #79
• US rank: #1219

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C- Cost of living C Crime B- Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Middletown, NY
• County: Orange County · 267,004 people
• City population: 68,033
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• Population (ZIP): 53,611
• Household income: $87,080
• Rent vs Own: 38.4% rent · 61.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1846.0

Population outlook (Orange County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 379,830 people
• By 2030: 378,955 · -0.2%
• By 2040: 375,444 · -1.2%
• By 2050: 369,311 · -2.8%
• By 2075: 354,233 · -6.7%
• By 2100: 318,150 · -16.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Highly diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 39% Hispanic / Latino 32% Black 20% Two or more races 13% Asian 4% Native American 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9% Puerto Rican 13% Dominican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 1% Iranian 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, China, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 21% Other Indo-European 2% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Orange

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+8.4) · D 45.8% · R 54.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 4.1pp · 2024: -8.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+8.4 2020: R+0.2 2016: R+6.5 2012: D+5.2 2008: D+4.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.68%
• Current HPI: 311.5969
• Rent YoY: ▲ 8.23%
• Metro: Poughkeepsie-Newburgh-Middletown, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+299.9% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Listed $299,900 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-29 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records
• 1993-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 1986-08-18 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,843 · -0.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.