4268 Saint Thomas Way · Poinciana, FL 34758

$226,990

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,562 sqft · Townhouse · 1 Days on market

Built 2026 Excellent condition $145/sqft · at area comps Est $237k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.2/30.0
• ARV discount +9.4/15.0
• Condition / age +4.8/5.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.7/5.0
• Schools +2.5/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This new duplex-style home offers convenient single-floor living for simple entertaining and multitasking. An inviting open-concept floorplan maximizes space and features direct access to the lanai for outdoor entertainment and leisure. A secluded study, ready to be used a movie room or guest suite, shares a hallway with a bedroom and full bathroom, and the lavish owner's suite is tucked into a private rear corner, complete with an en-suite bathroom and walk-in closet.

Key facts

• Secluded study
• Walk-in closet
• Single-floor living

Tags

• SINGLE-FLOOR LIVING
• OPEN-CONCEPT FLOORPLAN
• DIRECT ACCESS TO LANAI
• SECLUDED STUDY
• EN-SUITE BATHROOM
• WALK-IN CLOSET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath townhouse listed at $227k. Condition is rated excellent.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $37 ($446/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $203k (10.4% below list).
• Recommended offer: $203k (10.4% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 4.2% in Poinciana — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#859 in FL) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Osceola (suburban): math 39% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #60 of 73 in FL (top 82%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Poinciana Academy of Fine Arts (math 18% / reading 34%, grade F, #2,015 of 2,144 statewide, top 94%, 632 students, 66% FRL); Discovery Intermediate School (math 25% / reading 30%, grade F, #495 of 571 statewide, top 87%, 898 students, 62% FRL); Liberty High School (math 15% / reading 25%, grade F, #554 of 667 statewide, top 84%, 1,613 students, 52% FRL) — zoned schools at 60% FRL track the district average.
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 24% at this address vs 42% district-wide (-18 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Osceola average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 840 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 42d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 52% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 8,813 units permitted in Osceola County in 2024 (3,072 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($66k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Osceola County population projected at +73% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $203,271 (10.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.49%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.70%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $237,258
• List price: $226,990
• Delta: -4.33%
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 12 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4278 ST Thomas Way	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	1mo	$229,240	$147	98
4300 ST Thomas Way	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	0mo	$221,490	$142	98
4252 ST Thomas Way	0.03mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	2mo	$226,990	$145	98
4260 ST Thomas Way	0.02mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	2mo	$230,850	$148	97
4302 ST Thomas Way	0.05mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	1mo	$235,528	$151	97
4310 ST Thomas Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	0mo	$229,990	$147	96
4316 ST Thomas Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	1mo	$238,988	$153	96
4228 ST Thomas Way	0.07mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	3mo	$241,990	$155	95
4334 ST Thomas Way	0.11mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	1mo	$226,990	$145	94
4230 ST Thomas Way	0.06mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	4mo	$243,040	$156	94
4375 Curacao Pl	0.18mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	1mo	$257,040	$165	91
4343 Curacao Pl	0.14mi	2/2.0	1,562 (0%)	14mo	$249,990	$160	82

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.82% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -17.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-38,748
• Equity at exit: $33,845

10-year hold

• IRR: -14.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.25×
• Total profit: $-47,710
• Equity at exit: $19,626

Cash invested: $63,557 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Balanced market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 10 active · 16 under contract
• Months of supply: 5.5 mo (18%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $227,365 ($146/sqft)
• Median days on market: 2 d
• This list price: lowest-priced of the active set
• ARV vs active asking: +4.3% vs current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 34758

• Home prices YoY: -14.3%
• Rents YoY: 0.8%
• Active inventory: 840
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,033 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,190
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$284 /mo · $3,405/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$427
• Net cashflow: $37

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,986

Max offer price $226,990

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $116	+0% $37	+5% $-41	+10% $-120
Rent	-10% $-123	-5% $-43	+0% $37	+5% $117	+10% $198
Rate	-1.0pp $151	-0.5pp $95	base $37	+0.5pp $-22	+1.0pp $-81

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $56,748
• Closing costs: $6,810
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4246 St Thomas Way Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1562	$1,900	$1.22	42d	1	0.05mi
4244 St Thomas Way Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1562	$1,900	$1.22	42d	1	0.05mi
4261 Curacao Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1572	$2,000	$1.27	7d	1	0.06mi
4251 Curacao Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1562	$1,890	$1.21	97d	1	0.06mi
4269 Curacao Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,100	$1.34	119d	1	0.07mi
4271 Curacao Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1567	$2,200	$1.40	119d	1	0.07mi
4325 Curacao Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1562	$2,000	$1.28	119d	1	0.12mi
4505 Ochos Rios Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,100	$1.12	119d	1	0.22mi
4505 Ochos Rios Pl Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1872	$2,300	$1.23	29d	1	0.22mi
5087 Loggia Ln Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1882	$2,100	$1.12	7d	1	0.28mi
5533 Guava Ct Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,250	$1.23	29d	1	0.29mi
5515 Guava Ct Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1600	$2,250	$1.41	7d	1	0.29mi
5550 Guava Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,150	$1.36	29d	1	0.30mi
5579 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,150	$1.51	6d	1	0.31mi
5524 Morant Bay Path Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	119d	1	0.32mi
5596 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,000	$1.40	7d	1	0.33mi
5572 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1424	$2,250	$1.58	7d	1	0.34mi
5543 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,100	$1.33	42d	1	0.35mi
5525 Morant Bay Path Unit A Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	29d	1	0.37mi
5548 Morant Bay Path Unit B Kissimmee, FL	1.0	1.0	1825	$1,400	$0.77	64d	1	0.37mi
5548 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	119d	1	0.37mi
5525 Morant Bay Path Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1825	$2,200	$1.21	119d	1	0.38mi
662 Brockton Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1632	$1,920	$1.18	119d	1	0.43mi
620 Brockton Dr Kissimmee, FL	2.0	2.0	1118	$1,499	$1.34	6d	1	0.52mi
604 Basingstoke Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1739	$1,945	$1.12	119d	1	0.56mi
362 Aylesbury Ct Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1438	$1,850	$1.29	7d	1	0.70mi
5410 Crown Point RD Poinciana, FL	3.0	2.0	1453	$2,000	$1.38	7d	1	0.73mi
136 Birmingham Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1134	$1,550	$1.37	7d	1	0.85mi
242 Abbotsbury Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	3.0	1622	$2,260	$1.39	29d	1	0.87mi
820 Grantham Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,300	$1.66	29d	1	0.98mi
820 Grantham Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1383	$2,300	$1.66	119d	1	0.98mi
122 Barrington Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1472	$1,659	$1.13	74d	1	0.98mi
415 Greenwich Ct Poinciana, FL	2.0	1.5	1320	$1,550	$1.17	42d	1	1.01mi
179 Birmingham Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1329	$1,700	$1.28	2d	1	1.01mi
5647 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,100	$1.44	42d	1	1.03mi
5647 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1455	$2,100	$1.44	29d	1	1.03mi
5665 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.5	1856	$2,350	$1.27	119d	1	1.04mi
5671 Nispero Way Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1608	$2,350	$1.46	82d	1	1.04mi
812 Glastonbury Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1143	$1,700	$1.49	99d	1	1.04mi
850 Glastonbury Dr Kissimmee, FL	3.0	2.0	1474	$1,700	$1.15	7d	1	1.04mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-06-08
   remarks 473-char remark
2. 2026-06-08
   listed $226,990 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,393
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,715
• − Property taxes: −$3,405
• − Insurance: −$1,135
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,951
• − Management: −$1,951
• − Depreciation: −$6,603
• Taxable loss: −$3,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$808
• After-tax cash flow: $1,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 13 photos

Excellent 95/100 None rehab

This move-in-ready, single-floor home offers a modern and well-maintained living space with an open-concept floorplan and a private owner's suite. The property is in excellent condition with minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior siding — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and property value. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can improve curb appeal and attract more potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding smart home features — Modern technology can increase the home's appeal and market value. ↑
• Both Upgrading the kitchen appliances — Newer, more energy-efficient appliances can increase the home's value and appeal to buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both Adding a smart thermostat — A smart thermostat can improve energy efficiency and comfort, making the home more attractive to buyers/tenants. ↑

F Composite school gradezoned avg 24/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary Poinciana Academy Of Fine Arts F FL #2,015/2,144 Nat'l #29,575/41,679 Middle Discovery Intermediate School F FL #495/571 Nat'l #9,659/14,009 High Liberty High School F FL #554/667 Nat'l #14,027/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Osceola
• NCES district ID: 1201470
• Math proficiency: 39% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $45,528
• Composite: 35.7/100
• National rank: #4865
• State rank: #60 of 73 in FL

D Composite livability gradescore 57/100

Livability — Poinciana

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #859
• US rank: #21760

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Poinciana, FL
• County: Osceola County · 447,624 people
• City population: 91,336
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• Population (ZIP): 46,768
• Household income: $66,339
• Rent vs Own: 23.7% rent · 76.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 28% of renters

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Population outlook (Osceola County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 447,624 people
• By 2030: 511,823 · +14.3%
• By 2040: 642,986 · +43.6%
• By 2050: 774,552 · +73.0%
• By 2075: 1,078,144 · +140.9%
• By 2100: 1,269,660 · +183.6%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 60% Black 22% Two or more races 16% White 13% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 36% Cuban 3% Dominican 7%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 8% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 24% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 42% English-only · Spanish 48% French/Haitian/Cajun 7% Arabic 1%

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Political lean MEDSL · Osceola

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.2% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -21.2pp toward R · 2008: 19.7pp · 2024: -1.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.4 2020: D+13.8 2016: D+25.0 2012: D+24.5 2008: D+19.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -49.53%
• Current HPI: 295.8928
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.82%
• Metro: Orlando-Kissimmee-Sanford, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2025-12-16 Sold (Public Records) $4,356,531 Public Records

Property tax history

+201.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $416 · +201.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.