338 Spencer Rd · Ithaca, NY 14850

$239,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 2,118 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 46 Days on market

Built 1850 0.44 ac lot Est $474k · 50% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +21.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.8/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• Schools +5.4/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.8/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Downtown Ithaca in your backyard… and I mean that literally. Coffee runs, dinners out, shopping, and everyday essentials are all within easy reach, this is the kind of location that makes life feel effortless. Inside, the home delivers that charm you’re hoping for. Hardwood floors throughout, a wood-burning fireplace that instantly makes the space feel like home, and two separate living areas so you’re not sacrificing space for location. The kitchen is set up to keep things easy and functional, with a formal dining room flowing right into a sun-filled nook giving you that extra space you didn’t know you needed. The layout continues to surprise you with how much flex

Key facts

• Formal dining room
• Laundry room
• Sun filled nook

Tags

• WOOD BURNING FIREPLACE
• TWO SEPARATE LIVING AREAS
• FORMAL DINING ROOM
• SUN FILLED NOOK
• FULL BATH
• LAUNDRY ROOM

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Gravel driveway; 2 garage spaces
• Utilities: Public water; Sewer connected; Water connected; Natural gas available
• Home design: Single-family residence; Two levels / 2 stories
• Construction: Wood siding; Stone foundation; Shingle roof; Built as a residential single-family home
• Exterior features: Covered porch; Patio; Partial fencing; Near public transit; Rectangular lot; Workshop (outbuilding)

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Microwave; Refrigerator
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Varied flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Steam heating; Natural gas heating
• Interior features: Fireplace (1); Full walk-out basement; 13 total rooms
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $239k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $354 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $239k).
• Recommended offer: $232k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.1% vs local median 5.3% in Ithaca — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#210 in NY, #3,240 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: housing C-, employment D+, cost of living D.
• Ithaca City School District (urban): math 57% / reading 71% proficiency, ranked #195 of 590 in NY (top 33%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Fall Creek Elementary School (math 37% / reading 62%, grade D, #1,085 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 232 students, 40% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 50% at this address vs 64% district-wide (-14 pts) — the specific schools serving this property underperform the Ithaca City School District average; the district grade overstates school quality for this exact location.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.2%/yr); 327 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 382 units permitted in Tompkins County in 2024 (208 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 45% of the median local income ($71k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tompkins County population projected at +17% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 46 days — a 3% lower offer ($232k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $165k; 45% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1850 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $231,830 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 46 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1850 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.07%
• Cash-on-cash: 6.36%
• DSCR: 1.28
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $474,432
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
227 W Spencer St	0.50mi	3/1.5	2,218 (+5%)	12mo	$445,000	$201	57
213 Wood St	0.37mi	4/3.0 (+1)	1,834 (-13%)	1mo	$511,000	$279	50
207 South Hill Ter	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,967 (-7%)	14mo	$422,000	$215	45
802 S Plain St	0.27mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,916 (-10%)	24mo	$430,000	$224	44
510 S Plain St	0.50mi	3/2.5	1,828 (-14%)	11mo	$430,000	$235	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.22% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -3.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.85×
• Total profit: $-9,962
• Equity at exit: $35,636

10-year hold

• IRR: 8.3%
• Equity multiple: 1.70×
• Total profit: $46,957
• Equity at exit: $20,664

Cash invested: $66,920 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14850

• Rents YoY: 5.2%
• Active inventory: 327
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,667 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,253
• Tax from tax record: −$399 /mo · $4,793/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$560
• Net cashflow: $354

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,218

Max offer price $239,000

Occupancy floor 82%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $59,750
• Closing costs: $7,170
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
323 Taughannock Blvd Ithaca, NY	2.0	1.0–2.5	1167	$6,402	$5.48	43d	6	1.04mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-21
   historical Active Under Contract
2. 2026-04-13
   listed $239,000 Active
3. 2013-09-30
   soldstatus $165,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,793 · $399/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,793 · $399/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X · 22% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 8 d/yr ≥93°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 0% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $32,002
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,388
• − Property taxes: −$4,793
• − Insurance: −$1,195
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,560
• − Management: −$2,560
• − Depreciation: −$6,953
• Taxable income: $553
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$133
• After-tax cash flow: $4,121/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Ithaca City School District
• NCES district ID: 3615570
• Math proficiency: 57% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 71% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $46,528
• Composite: 54.01/100
• National rank: #1397
• State rank: #195 of 590 in NY

Livability — Ithaca

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #210
• US rank: #3240

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime C Employment D+ Housing C- Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Ithaca, NY
• County: Tompkins County · 68,610 people
• City population: 68,610
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• Population (ZIP): 68,610
• Household income: $71,445
• Rent vs Own: 55.2% rent · 44.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 5169.0

Population outlook (Tompkins County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 113,958 people
• By 2030: 118,774 · +4.2%
• By 2040: 125,927 · +10.5%
• By 2050: 133,599 · +17.2%
• By 2075: 156,759 · +37.6%
• By 2100: 169,896 · +49.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Asian 13% Hispanic / Latino 8% Two or more races 8% Black 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 3% Italian 3% Scotch-Irish 2%
• Foreign-born: 18% · China, Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Chinese 5% Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 4%

Political lean MEDSL · Tompkins

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+50.6) · D 75.3% · R 24.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: +8.6pp toward D · 2008: 42.1pp · 2024: 50.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+50.6 2020: D+49.2 2016: D+42.1 2012: D+39.8 2008: D+42.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -276.59%
• Current HPI: 389.7215
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.22%
• Metro: Ithaca, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+44.8% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Contingent — IBRMLS
• 2026-04-13 Listed $239,000 IBRMLS
• 2013-09-30 Sold (Public Records) $165,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,793 · +2.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.