502 Ironbound Rd · Williamsburg, VA 23188

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,258 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 77 Days on market

Built 1967 0.41 ac lot Est $323k · 23% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +23.4/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +7.5/10.0
• Schools +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Great all brick ranch on a large lot in the heart of Williamsburg. The home is near shopping, restaurants, entertainment and many amenities. Needs your special touch to make it pop.

Key facts

• 0.41 acre lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 1967

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $462 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($3k rent vs $250k).
• Recommended offer: $235k (6.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 8.5% vs local median 3.1% in Williamsburg — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 84/100 on livability (#31 in VA, #734 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, health & safety A+; Watch: cost of living D.
• Williamsburg-James City Public School District (suburban): math 60% / reading 73% proficiency, ranked #36 of 131 in VA (top 28%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Clara Byrd Baker Elementary (math 62% / reading 62%, grade B, #480 of 1,108 statewide, top 46%, 507 students, 48% FRL); Lafayette High (math 61% / reading 83%, grade B+, #134 of 319 statewide, top 45%, 1,208 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools average 44% FRL vs 27% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 429 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 10 units permitted in Williamsburg city in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Williamsburg County population projected at +44% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 77 days — a 6% lower offer ($235k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 65% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→16/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $235,000 (6.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 77 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 6% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1967 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 8.51%
• Cash-on-cash: 7.92%
• DSCR: 1.35
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $323,306
• Comps found: 7

Show comp detail 7 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
5350 Palmer Ln	0.15mi	3/2.5	1,370 (+9%)	1mo	$145,000	$106	75
314 Roland St	0.06mi	3/1.5	1,080 (-14%)	3mo	$275,000	$255	69
218 Alesa Dr	0.19mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,200 (-5%)	11mo	$230,000	$192	65
230 Longhill Rd	0.74mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,256 (-0%)	20mo	$375,000	$299	44
5202 Foundation St	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,167 (-7%)	19mo	$316,000	$271	36
5215 Foundation St	0.67mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,172 (-7%)	23mo	$330,000	$282	33
5215 Center St #308	0.74mi	3/2.0	1,400 (+11%)	20mo	$359,900	$257	30

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.53% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -4.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.82×
• Total profit: $-12,365
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: 4.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.31×
• Total profit: $21,948
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23188

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 429
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,523 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$116 /mo · $1,389/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$530
• Net cashflow: $462

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,938

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 77%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $603	-5% $533	+0% $462	+5% $391	+10% $320
Rent	-10% $263	-5% $362	+0% $462	+5% $562	+10% $661
Rate	-1.0pp $588	-0.5pp $525	base $462	+0.5pp $397	+1.0pp $331

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
203 Bristol Cmn Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1159	$2,100	$1.81	2d	1	0.30mi
4375 New Town Ave Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	1141	$2,765	$2.42	2d	15	0.37mi
155 Sterling Manor Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.5	1588	$3,348	$2.11	2d	13	0.42mi
150 Kings Manor Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–3.0	1295	$3,847	$2.97	2d	23	0.44mi
124 Governor Berkeley Rd Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.0	1580	$2,200	$1.39	2d	1	0.76mi
100 Whitworth Way Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	964	$2,484	$2.58	2d	14	0.93mi
235 Thomas Nelson Ln Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1666	$2,300	$1.38	8d	1	0.95mi
311 Mershon Way Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1798	$2,600	$1.45	18d	1	1.08mi
109 Stratford Dr Unit H Williamsburg, VA	2.0	1.5	968	$1,500	$1.55	44d	1	1.16mi
103 E Windsor Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1112	$1,650	$1.48	45d	1	1.19mi
5302 Lane Place Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1069	$2,050	$1.92	18d	5	1.30mi
5302 Lane Place Dr Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	873	$1,675	$1.92	2d	7	1.30mi
4049 Midlands Rd Williamsburg, VA	2.0	1.5	1020	$1,650	$1.62	2d	1	1.35mi
112 Stegg St Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,700	$1.53	15d	1	1.36mi
112 Stegg St Williamsburg, VA	3.0	2.5	1767	$2,700	$1.53	18d	1	1.36mi
2800 Ben Franklin Cir Williamsburg, VA	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.5	968	$2,196	$2.27	2d	15	1.38mi
2703 Westgate Cir Williamsburg, VA	2.0	2.0	1529	$1,830	$1.20	8d	1	1.41mi
3813 Staffordshire Ln Williamsburg, VA	3.0	1.5	1150	$1,700	$1.48	2d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2025-11-06
   status Under Contract
2. 2025-09-02
   historical Active Under Contract
3. 2025-08-21
   listed $250,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,389 · $116/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,050 · $171/mo
• Expected delta: +$661/yr (+$55/mo · 47.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 65% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,270
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$1,389
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,422
• − Management: −$2,422
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable income: $1,512
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$363
• After-tax cash flow: $5,180/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Williamsburg-James City Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5104020
• Math proficiency: 60% ▼ -25.00%
• Reading proficiency: 73% ▼ -8.00%
• Median HH income: $49,497
• Composite: 56.37/100
• National rank: #1163
• State rank: #36 of 131 in VA

Livability — Williamsburg

• Score: 84/100
• State rank: #31
• US rank: #734

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D Crime B+ Employment B Housing B- Health & safety A+ User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Williamsburg, VA
• County: James City County · 45,803 people
• City population: 101,073
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• Population (ZIP): 45,803
• Household income: $103,160
• Rent vs Own: 26.6% rent · 73.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1353.0

Population outlook (Williamsburg County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 20,784 people
• By 2030: 22,731 · +9.4%
• By 2040: 26,175 · +25.9%
• By 2050: 29,939 · +44.0%
• By 2075: 39,953 · +92.2%
• By 2100: 49,884 · +140.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Black 13% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Williamsburg

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+44.5) · D 71.5% · R 27.0% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +15.4pp toward D · 2008: 29.1pp · 2024: 44.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+44.5 2020: D+41.1 2016: D+43.5 2012: D+28.8 2008: D+29.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -213.65%
• Current HPI: 226.2192
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.53%
• Metro: Virginia Beach-Norfolk-Newport News, VA-NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-11-06 Pending — REINMLS
• 2025-09-02 Contingent — REINMLS
• 2025-08-21 Listed $250,000 REINMLS

Property tax history

+4.2%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,389 · +3.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.