The Casita Sky Valley Plan · Sky Valley, CA 92241

$82,900

1 bd · 1.0 ba · 400 sqft · Manufactured · 612 Days on market

Poor condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Well-designed, efficient, and virtually maintenance-free — the perfect home for weekenders, snowbirds, or year-round residents who want to make the most of their time in the desert. There are three-floor plan options with this home as well. With this floor-plan there is an option to add an additional California room for additional living space. This is a custom order home and we may not have a model home on site. Contact us to find out more! Some standard and upgraded options include: CASITA HOME STANDARD & UPGRADED FEATURES: -Bay window in the master bedroom -Stainless steel appliances -Solatubes -Window and flooring upgrades -Cabinet and hardware options -Mirrored wardrobe doors

Key facts

• Listed 611 days

🏗️ New construction. The $82,900 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $44,334.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 1-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $83k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $721 ($9k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $83k).
• Recommended offer: $73k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 25.8% vs local median 9.6% in Sky Valley — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 52/100 on livability (#1,041 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A; Watch: schools F, amenities F, commute F.
• Palm Springs Unified (suburban): math 21% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #328 of 517 in CA (top 63%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 73% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 216 active listings in the ZIP; 9,195 units permitted in Riverside County in 2024 (1,512 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $307 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Riverside County population projected at +22% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $12k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 612 days — a 12% lower offer ($73k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $72,952 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 612 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.93% ✓
• Cap rate: 25.82%
• Cash-on-cash: 69.72%
• DSCR: 4.10
• GRM: 2.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $44,334
• List price: $82,900
• Delta: 86.99%
• Verdict: OVERPRICED
• Comps: 13 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
74711 Dillon Rd #819	0.00mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	0mo	$37,000	$93	99
74711 Dillon Rd Spc 1023	0.00mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	4mo	$36,000	$90	96
74711 Dillon Rd Spc 64	0.00mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	5mo	$48,500	$122	96
74711 Dillon Rd #271	0.00mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	6mo	$67,000	$168	95
74711 Dillon Rd #709	0.00mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	6mo	$45,000	$113	94
74711 Dillon Rd Spc 114	0.00mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	9mo	$62,000	$155	92
74711 Dillon Rd Spc 126	0.00mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	10mo	$53,000	$133	92
74711 Dillon Rd #1007	0.00mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	10mo	$60,000	$150	91
74711 Dillon Rd #884	0.00mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	10mo	$37,000	$93	91
74711 Dillon Rd #247	0.16mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	2mo	$48,000	$120	90
74711 Dillon Rd #878	0.16mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	9mo	$28,000	$70	85
74711 Dillon Rd Spc 746	0.17mi	1/1.0	399 (-0%)	10mo	$34,000	$85	83

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 69.2%
• Equity multiple: 4.12×
• Total profit: $38,773
• Equity at exit: $6,610

10-year hold

• IRR: 73.3%
• Equity multiple: 8.49×
• Total profit: $92,995
• Equity at exit: $3,833

Cash invested: $12,414 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92241

• Home prices YoY: -22.8%
• Active inventory: 216
• Price-to-rent: 5.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,301 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$232
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$55 /mo · $665/yr
• Insurance: −$18
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$273
• Net cashflow: $721

Break-even live

Break-even rent $388

Max offer price $44,334

Occupancy floor 40%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $11,084
• Closing costs: $1,330
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 15 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $82,900 Active 612 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $82,900 Active 611 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $82,900 Active 610 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $82,900 Active 609 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,900 Active 607 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $82,900 Active 606 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $82,900 Active 603 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $82,900 Active 602 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $82,900 Active 601 DOM
10. 2026-06-04
    days on market $82,900 Active 598 DOM
11. 2026-06-03
    days on market $82,900 Active 597 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $82,900 Active 596 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $82,900 Active 595 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $82,900 Active 594 DOM
15. 2024-10-14
    listed $82,900 Active 706-char remark

    Show marketing remark (706 chars)

    Well-designed, efficient, and virtually maintenance-free — the perfect home for weekenders, snowbirds, or year-round residents who want to make the most of their time in the desert. There are three-floor plan options with this home as well. With this floor-plan there is an option to add an additional California room for additional living space. This is a custom order home and we may not have a model home on site. Contact us to find out more! Some standard and upgraded options include: CASITA HOME STANDARD & UPGRADED FEATURES: -Bay window in the master bedroom -Stainless steel appliances -Solatubes -Window and flooring upgrades -Cabinet and hardware options -Mirrored wardrobe doors

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone D · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 5/10 Major 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 8 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $15,610
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,483
• − Property taxes: −$665
• − Insurance: −$222
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,249
• − Management: −$1,249
• − Depreciation: −$1,290
• Taxable income: $8,452
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,029
• After-tax cash flow: $6,627/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 1 photo

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This manufactured home requires extensive repairs and updates to its exterior, roof, HVAC, windows, and landscaping to improve its condition and value.

Repairs flagged

• Major exterior siding — Significant wear and tear
• Major roof — No visible damage, but not inspected
• Major HVAC/mechanicals — No visible HVAC/mechanicals, but not inspected
• Major windows — No visible windows, but not inspected
• Major foundation/structure — No visible foundation/structure, but not inspected
• Major landscaping/curb appeal — No visible landscaping/curb appeal, but not inspected

Value-add opportunities

• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity
• Both roof repair — Essential for structural integrity and water resistance
• Both HVAC/mechanicals upgrade — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency
• Both windows replacement — Improves energy efficiency and security
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
exterior siding · Significant wear and tear	Major	$15,000–50,000
roof · No visible damage, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
HVAC/mechanicals · No visible HVAC/mechanicals, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
windows · No visible windows, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
foundation/structure · No visible foundation/structure, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
landscaping/curb appeal · No visible landscaping/curb appeal, but not inspected	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 6 items		$90,000–300,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both exterior siding repair — Improves curb appeal and structural integrity ↑
• Both roof repair — Essential for structural integrity and water resistance ↑
• Both HVAC/mechanicals upgrade — Enhances comfort and energy efficiency ↑
• Both windows replacement — Improves energy efficiency and security ↑
• Both landscaping and curb appeal — Enhances curb appeal and property value ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Palm Springs Unified
• NCES district ID: 0629550
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $43,638
• Composite: 26.76/100
• National rank: #7131
• State rank: #328 of 517 in CA

Livability — Sky Valley

• Score: 52/100
• State rank: #1041
• US rank: #25108

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B- Employment F Housing A Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Sky Valley, CA
• Population (ZIP): 8,624

Population outlook (Riverside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,664,475 people
• By 2030: 2,802,692 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 3,050,904 · +14.5%
• By 2050: 3,256,783 · +22.2%
• By 2075: 3,655,058 · +37.2%
• By 2100: 3,766,594 · +41.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Race & ethnicity: White 50% Hispanic / Latino 46% Two or more races 16% Asian 2% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 36%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 28% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 57% English-only · Spanish 38% Chinese 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Riverside

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.0% · R 49.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.6pp toward R · 2008: 2.3pp · 2024: -1.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.3 2020: D+8.0 2016: D+4.3 2012: R+0.4 2008: D+2.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -118.23%
• Current HPI: 400.5663
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2024-10-14 Listed $82,900 Zillow