421 7th Ave · Erie, IL 61250

$80,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 985 sqft · SingleFamily · 2 Days on market

Built 1952 0.25 ac lot Est $76k · 5% over

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +26.8/30.0
• DSCR +9.2/10.0
• 1% rule +6.2/10.0
• ARV discount +5.0/15.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming ranch-style home offers easy one-level living with 2 bedrooms and 1 full bath. Sitting on a 0.25-acre lot, there's plenty of space to enjoy the outdoors-plus the backyard backs up to a cornfield, giving you extra privacy and peaceful views. The full basement has potential to finish and add more living space. You'll also love the added security of a whole house generator. Located right next to the schools, this home is in a super convenient spot while still feeling tucked away. Whether you're looking for a starter home, downsizing, or an investment opportunity, this property offers solid value with the chance to make it your own.

Key facts

• Full basement
• Next to schools
• One level living

Tags

• ONE LEVEL LIVING
• BACKYARD BACKS UP TO CORNFIELD
• FULL BASEMENT
• WHOLE HOUSE GENERATOR
• NEXT TO SCHOOLS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $80k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $218 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($892 rent vs $80k).

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#300 in IL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, cost of living A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Erie CUSD 1 (rural): math 35% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #167 of 620 in IL (top 27%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Erie Elem School (math 37% / reading 27%, grade F, #586 of 2,056 statewide, top 31%, 246 students, 0% FRL); Erie Middle School (math 37% / reading 47%, grade D-, #116 of 665 statewide, top 19%, 176 students, 0% FRL); Erie High School (math 34% / reading 34%, grade F, #126 of 693 statewide, top 21%, 184 students, 0% FRL) — zoned schools average 0% FRL vs 24% district-wide (24 pts lower); this property's tenant base skews higher-income than the district average.
• Market conditions: 20 active listings in the ZIP; 19 units permitted in Whiteside County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $553 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $2k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Whiteside County population projected at -21% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $22k cash investment doubles in ~10 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1952 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $80,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1952 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.12% ✓
• Cap rate: 9.56%
• Cash-on-cash: 11.68%
• DSCR: 1.52
• GRM: 7.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $75,845
• Comps found: 2

Show comp detail 2 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
421 7th Ave	0.00mi	2/1.0	985 (0%)	1mo	$76,000	$77	99
828 Main St	0.39mi	3/1.0 (+1)	944 (-4%)	7mo	$60,000	$64	64

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 1.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.04×
• Total profit: $898
• Equity at exit: $11,928

10-year hold

• IRR: 10.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.83×
• Total profit: $18,555
• Equity at exit: $6,917

Cash invested: $22,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 61250

• Home prices YoY: -27.9%
• Active inventory: 20
• Price-to-rent: 7.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $892 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$420
• Tax from tax record: −$34 /mo · $407/yr
• Insurance: −$33
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$187
• Net cashflow: $218

Break-even live

Break-even rent $616

Max offer price $80,000

Occupancy floor 71%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $20,000
• Closing costs: $2,400
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-24
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-21
   listed $80,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $407 · $34/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,112 · $93/mo
• Expected delta: +$704/yr (+$59/mo · 172.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 3/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (shaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $10,707
• − Mortgage interest: −$4,481
• − Property taxes: −$407
• − Insurance: −$400
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$857
• − Management: −$857
• − Depreciation: −$2,327
• Taxable income: $1,378
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$331
• After-tax cash flow: $2,286/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Erie CUSD 1
• NCES district ID: 1714350
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▼ -17.00%
• Median HH income: $57,258
• Composite: 32.28/100
• National rank: #5752
• State rank: #167 of 620 in IL

Livability — Erie

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #300
• US rank: #5810

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Erie, IL
• Population (ZIP): 2,843

Population outlook (Whiteside County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 53,736 people
• By 2030: 51,657 · -3.9%
• By 2040: 47,169 · -12.2%
• By 2050: 42,613 · -20.7%
• By 2075: 32,691 · -39.2%
• By 2100: 22,638 · -57.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (96%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 96% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 7% English 3% Scottish 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · Whiteside

• 2024 margin: R (+14.7) · D 41.7% · R 56.4% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -32.3pp toward R · 2008: 17.6pp · 2024: -14.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+14.7 2020: R+8.3 2016: R+6.3 2012: D+17.3 2008: D+17.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -57.73%
• Current HPI: 149.049
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Pending — MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-04-21 Listed $80,000 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid

Property tax history

-0.2%/yr

Latest (2024): $407 · -0.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.