20524 Echo Ct · Pine Mountain Lake, CA 95321

$259,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,072 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 173 Days on market

Built 1987 1.95 ac lot $242/sqft · 21% below area Est $326k · 21% under $213/mo HOA · 9% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.7/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Schools +2.7/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Discover the ultimate mountain-lake retreat in this charming cabin set on nearly 2 acres within Pine Mountain Lakeone of California's most unique and sought-after gated communities just minutes from Yosemite National Park. Perfectly nestled among soaring pines, stately oaks, and the scenic mountain landscape of Tuolumne County, this property blends privacy, natural beauty, and resort-style amenities. The home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering warm, inviting spaces ideal for full-time living or a relaxing getaway. A wood-burning heater creates a cozy atmosphere on cool mountain evenings. The detached kids' playhouse/treehouse, complete with electric outlets, adds a whimsical and functional outdoor space for play, creativity, or quiet hideaways. Residents enjoy an 18-hole championship golf course, restaurant and lounge, full-service Equestrian Center, stables and campground, and endless outdoor recreation. Spend sunny afternoons at the community's three swimming beaches, or explore picnicking and fishing areas. Boat rentals, tennis courts, pickleball courts, a heated swimming pool, and miles of hiking and walking trails ensure year-round enjoyment.

Key facts

• Gated community
• Heated swimming pool
• 1.95 acre lot

Tags

• MOUNTAIN LAKE RETREAT
• GATED COMMUNITY
• DETACHED KIDS PLAYHOUSE
• FULL SERVICE EQUESTRIAN CENTER
• THREE SWIMMING BEACHES
• HEATED SWIMMING POOL

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $259k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $63 ($761/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $250k (3.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.4% in Pine Mountain Lake — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#896 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: crime A, housing B; Watch: employment C-, schools D, amenities F.
• Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified (rural): math 15% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #1,094 of 1,400 in CA (top 78%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Market conditions: 235 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 60 units permitted in Tuolumne County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuolumne County population projected at -15% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 173 days — a 12% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 6y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,920 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 173 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.97% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.05%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $326,245
• List price: $259,000
• Delta: -20.61%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
20767 Ferretti	0.37mi	2/1.0	1,024 (-4%)	2mo	$260,000	$254	70
20419 Pine Mountain Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,008 (-6%)	1mo	$225,000	$223	67
20790 Ferretti Rd	0.41mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,097 (+2%)	10mo	$280,000	$255	63
12623 Cresthaven Dr	0.54mi	2/1.5	1,152 (+8%)	12mo	$305,000	$265	50
19787 Cottonwood	0.72mi	1/1.0 (-1)	1,008 (-6%)	14mo	$235,000	$233	36

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.6%
• Equity multiple: 0.48×
• Total profit: $-37,819
• Equity at exit: $38,618

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.62×
• Total profit: $-27,276
• Equity at exit: $22,394

Cash invested: $72,520 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 95321

• Active inventory: 235
• Price-to-rent: 8.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,500 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,358
• Tax from tax record: −$232 /mo · $2,790/yr
• Insurance: −$108
• HOA: −$213
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$525
• Net cashflow: $63

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,420

Max offer price $259,000

Occupancy floor 92%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $64,750
• Closing costs: $7,770
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
19570 Cottonwood St Groveland, CA	3.0	2.0	1400	$2,500	$1.79	20d	1	1.13mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $213 · $2,556/yr
• Likely covers: electricpoolsecurity

Listing history 7 events

1. 2025-12-02
   listed $259,000 Active 1176-char remark

   Show marketing remark (1176 chars)

   Discover the ultimate mountain-lake retreat in this charming cabin set on nearly 2 acres within Pine Mountain Lakeone of California's most unique and sought-after gated communities just minutes from Yosemite National Park. Perfectly nestled among soaring pines, stately oaks, and the scenic mountain landscape of Tuolumne County, this property blends privacy, natural beauty, and resort-style amenities. The home features 2 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, offering warm, inviting spaces ideal for full-time living or a relaxing getaway. A wood-burning heater creates a cozy atmosphere on cool mountain evenings. The detached kids' playhouse/treehouse, complete with electric outlets, adds a whimsical and functional outdoor space for play, creativity, or quiet hideaways. Residents enjoy an 18-hole championship golf course, restaurant and lounge, full-service Equestrian Center, stables and campground, and endless outdoor recreation. Spend sunny afternoons at the community's three swimming beaches, or explore picnicking and fishing areas. Boat rentals, tennis courts, pickleball courts, a heated swimming pool, and miles of hiking and walking trails ensure year-round enjoyment.

2. 2020-09-04
   soldstatus $229,000 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   This home is within the Pine Mountain Lake privacy of a gated community, welcome to your own oasis of NEARLY 2 acres. A rare find. ALL LEVEL 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with no rear neighbors! Huge garage, and covered back deck. Open floor plan is showcased with the open kitchen, moving seamlessly into the living area. Separate laundry room makes a great pantry as well. RV PARKING. Play house in rear goes with the sale. PML has everything you would need for the luxury life, equestrian center, exclusive lake access with docks for you boat, tennis courts, and the famous 18 hole championship golf course. PML Golf Course, has been rated “4-1/2 stars Best Places to Play” by Golf Digest magazine and is open for play year-round -View Yosemite from the 10th hole! This home is part of PML HOA that runs about $203/month

3. 2020-09-04
   soldstatus $229,000

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   This home is within the Pine Mountain Lake privacy of a gated community, welcome to your own oasis of NEARLY 2 acres. A rare find. ALL LEVEL 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with no rear neighbors! Huge garage, and covered back deck. Open floor plan is showcased with the open kitchen, moving seamlessly into the living area. Separate laundry room makes a great pantry as well. RV PARKING. Play house in rear goes with the sale. PML has everything you would need for the luxury life, equestrian center, exclusive lake access with docks for you boat, tennis courts, and the famous 18 hole championship golf course. PML Golf Course, has been rated “4-1/2 stars Best Places to Play” by Golf Digest magazine and is open for play year-round -View Yosemite from the 10th hole! This home is part of PML HOA that runs about $203/month

4. 2020-07-10
   listed $229,000 848-char remark

   Show marketing remark (848 chars)

   This home is within the Pine Mountain Lake privacy of a gated community, welcome to your own oasis of NEARLY 2 acres. A rare find. ALL LEVEL 2 bedroom, 2 bath home with no rear neighbors! Huge garage, and covered back deck. Open floor plan is showcased with the open kitchen, moving seamlessly into the living area. Separate laundry room makes a great pantry as well. RV PARKING. Play house in rear goes with the sale. PML has everything you would need for the luxury life, equestrian center, exclusive lake access with docks for you boat, tennis courts, and the famous 18 hole championship golf course. PML Golf Course, has been rated “4-1/2 stars Best Places to Play” by Golf Digest magazine and is open for play year-round -View Yosemite from the 10th hole! This home is part of PML HOA that runs about $203/month

5. 1999-09-03
   soldstatus $93,500
6. 1999-09-03
   soldstatus $93,500
7. 1997-03-07
   soldstatus $77,500

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast CA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $2,790 · $232/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,790 · $232/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 10/10 Extreme 27 unhealthy d/yr today · 31 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,000
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,508
• − Property taxes: −$2,790
• − Insurance: −$1,295
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,400
• − Management: −$2,400
• − HOA: −$2,556
• − Depreciation: −$7,535
• Taxable loss: −$3,483
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$836
• After-tax cash flow: $1,597/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Big Oak Flat-Groveland Unified
• NCES district ID: 0691137
• Math proficiency: 15% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $52,027
• Composite: 27.21/100
• National rank: #12450
• State rank: #1094 of 1400 in CA

Livability — Pine Mountain Lake

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #896
• US rank: #23898

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime A Employment C- Housing B Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Pine Mountain Lake, CA
• Population (ZIP): 3,870

Population outlook (Tuolumne County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 50,349 people
• By 2030: 48,708 · -3.3%
• By 2040: 45,284 · -10.1%
• By 2050: 42,575 · -15.4%
• By 2075: 36,827 · -26.9%
• By 2100: 30,369 · -39.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (79%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 79% Hispanic / Latino 11% Two or more races 7% Asian 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 8%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 6% Serbian 4% Scotch-Irish 4%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, South Korea
• Languages at home: 86% English-only · Spanish 8% Other Indo-European 3% Korean 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuolumne

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.9) · D 37.9% · R 59.7% · Other 2.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -9.2pp toward R · 2008: -12.7pp · 2024: -21.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.9 2020: R+18.8 2016: R+20.9 2012: R+15.9 2008: R+12.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -124.27%
• Current HPI: 137.7561
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+234.2% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-02 Listed $259,000 CRMLS
• 2020-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2020-09-04 Sold (MLS) $229,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 2020-07-10 Listed $229,000 bridgeMLS, Bay East AOR, or Contra Costa AOR
• 1999-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 1999-09-03 Sold (Public Records) $93,500 Public Records
• 1997-03-07 Sold (Public Records) $77,500 Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $2,790 · +1.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.