111 Beacon Ln · Panama City Beach, FL 32407

$250,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,348 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 114 Days on market

Built 2005 545 sqft lot $185/sqft · 34% below area Est $352k · 29% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +18.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.6/10.0
• 1% rule +4.9/10.0
• Schools +4.3/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

House is in good condition. Recent LVP flooring throughout except bathrooms. AC unit 5 years old. Great location near schools shopping and restaurants. 2 blocks from the Gulf Plenty of room on the side to build a large porch or fence it in. HOA includes trash pick up. Price just reduced to $295,000

Key facts

• Near schools
• Near shopping
• Near restaurants

Tags

• LVP FLOORING
• NEAR SCHOOLS
• NEAR SHOPPING
• NEAR RESTAURANTS
• 2 BLOCKS FROM THE GULF

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $250k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $216 ($3k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $248k (0.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $228k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.3% vs local median 2.6% in Panama City Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#172 in FL, #2,624 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: amenities D-, commute F.
• Bay (suburban): math 51% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #29 of 73 in FL (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.2%/yr); 702 active listings in the ZIP; 25 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 13d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 2,473 units permitted in Bay County in 2024 (559 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 37% of the median local income ($81k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Bay County population projected at +24% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 114 days — a 9% lower offer ($228k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 21y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $75k (23%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $227,500 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 114 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.99% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.33%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.71%
• DSCR: 1.16
• GRM: 8.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $352,388
• List price: $250,000
• Delta: -29.06%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 10 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
11731 Sand Castle Ln	0.07mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-6%)	8mo	$290,000	$229	80
11625 Sand Castle Ln	0.08mi	3/2.0	1,312 (-3%)	17mo	$350,000	$267	78
220 Coquina Shell Way	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,190 (-12%)	1mo	$295,000	$248	72
105 White Cap Way	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,432 (+6%)	24mo	$290,000	$203	63
11815 Seashore Ln	0.12mi	3/2.0	1,197 (-11%)	18mo	$326,000	$272	61
166 Palmeras Marinas Ln	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,459 (+8%)	7mo	$322,900	$221	53
258 Palmeras Marinas Ln	0.72mi	3/2.5	1,459 (+8%)	21mo	$337,000	$231	33
262 Palmeras Marinas Ln	0.73mi	3/2.5	1,459 (+8%)	21mo	$340,900	$234	33
267 Palmeras Marinas Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5	1,537 (+14%)	23mo	$320,175	$208	21
272 Palmeras Marinas Ln	0.75mi	3/2.5	1,537 (+14%)	24mo	$324,900	$211	20

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -13.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-33,959
• Equity at exit: $37,276

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-39,741
• Equity at exit: $21,615

Cash invested: $70,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32407

• Home prices YoY: -29.5%
• Rents YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 702
• Price-to-rent: 8.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,481 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,311
• Tax from tax record: −$329 /mo · $3,944/yr
• Insurance: −$104
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$521
• Net cashflow: $216

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,207

Max offer price $250,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $62,500
• Closing costs: $7,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 25 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
175 White Cap Way Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.5	1432	$1,750	$1.22	13d	1	0.15mi
11709 Seashore Ln Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1269	$2,300	$1.81	13d	1	0.15mi
11222 Hutchison Blvd Unit 1523347P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1194	$3,907	$3.27	21d	1	0.16mi
104 White Cap Way Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1146	$2,700	$2.36	21d	1	0.18mi
520 N Richard Jackson Blvd #1912 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1200	$2,375	$1.98	13d	1	0.30mi
800 Grand Panama Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	978	$2,699	$2.76	13d	30	0.31mi
98 Paddock Club Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1093	$2,063	$1.89	13d	19	0.37mi
335 Madison Cir Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1682	$2,599	$1.55	21d	1	0.51mi
138 Bonnie Ln Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,599	$1.65	13d	1	0.54mi
136 Bonnie Ln Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	972	$1,750	$1.80	13d	1	0.54mi
302 Cabana Blvd Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1184	$1,806	$1.53	13d	15	0.54mi
12011 Front Beach Rd Unit 1523327P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1076	$3,796	$3.53	13d	1	0.59mi
133 W Leslie Ln Unit 1 Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	1.5	950	$2,200	$2.32	21d	1	0.66mi
135 Grande Island Blvd Unit 1355007P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.5	1797	$2,759	$1.54	21d	1	0.77mi
10811 Front Beach Rd Unit 1354928P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1194	$3,463	$2.90	13d	1	0.88mi
10400 Panama City Beach Pkwy Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1151	$2,372	$2.06	13d	20	0.89mi
10625 Front Beach Rd Unit 1354975P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1140	$3,166	$2.78	13d	1	1.01mi
901 Pelican Pl Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1746	$1,650	$0.95	21d	1	1.11mi
204 Potters Bluff Dr Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1035	$1,947	$1.88	13d	12	1.14mi
104 Gulfside Ct Unit 1523320P Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	3.0	1496	$5,020	$3.36	13d	1	1.28mi
998 Gulfside Ct Unit 1523366P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1065	$4,124	$3.87	13d	1	1.29mi
410 Foxtail Way Panama City Beach, FL	3.0	2.0	1676	$2,750	$1.64	21d	1	1.32mi
9815 S Thomas Dr Unit 1523339P Panama City, FL	3.0	2.0	1259	$4,018	$3.19	21d	1	1.33mi
9902 S Thomas Dr Unit 1354966P Panama City Beach, FL	2.0	2.0	1259	$1,970	$1.56	13d	1	1.41mi
900 Clara Ave Panama City Beach, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1134	$2,175	$1.92	13d	15	1.42mi

Listing history 22 events

1. 2026-06-09
   status $250,000 Pending 114 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $250,000 Active 114 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   pricestatusdays on market $250,000 Active 113 DOM
4. 2026-06-01
   remarks 358-char remark
5. 2026-06-01
   price $255,000 Pending 111 DOM
6. 2026-05-16
   status Pending 299-char remark

   Show marketing remark (299 chars)

   House is in good condition. Recent LVP flooring throughout except bathrooms. AC unit 5 years old. Great location near schools shopping and restaurants. 2 blocks from the Gulf Plenty of room on the side to build a large porch or fence it in. HOA includes trash pick up. Price just reduced to $295,000

7. 2026-05-01
   price $295,000 299-char remark

   Show marketing remark (299 chars)

   House is in good condition. Recent LVP flooring throughout except bathrooms. AC unit 5 years old. Great location near schools shopping and restaurants. 2 blocks from the Gulf Plenty of room on the side to build a large porch or fence it in. HOA includes trash pick up. Price just reduced to $295,000

8. 2026-01-25
   listed $325,000 Active 299-char remark

   Show marketing remark (299 chars)

   House is in good condition. Recent LVP flooring throughout except bathrooms. AC unit 5 years old. Great location near schools shopping and restaurants. 2 blocks from the Gulf Plenty of room on the side to build a large porch or fence it in. HOA includes trash pick up. Price just reduced to $295,000

9. 2025-12-04
   historical $1,850
10. 2025-10-31
    listed $1,850
11. 2025-07-31
    historical $2,000
12. 2025-06-04
    listed $2,000
13. 2024-06-02
    historical $2,000
14. 2024-04-12
    listed $2,000
15. 2024-04-10
    historical $2,000
16. 2024-03-30
    listed $2,000
17. 2023-01-11
    historical
18. 2022-11-10
    price $397,000
19. 2022-10-31
    listed $435,000 Active
20. 2005-04-04
    soldstatus $229,000
21. 2005-03-31
    soldstatus $229,000
22. 2005-02-14
    listed $229,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $3,944 · $329/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,944 · $329/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$14,004
• − Property taxes: −$3,944
• − Insurance: −$1,250
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,382
• − Management: −$2,382
• − Depreciation: −$7,273
• Taxable loss: −$1,460
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$350
• After-tax cash flow: $2,946/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bay
• NCES district ID: 1200090
• Math proficiency: 51% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $47,740
• Composite: 43.41/100
• National rank: #3014
• State rank: #29 of 73 in FL

Livability — Panama City Beach

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #172
• US rank: #2624

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Bay County · 163,593 people
• City population: 50,689
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• Population (ZIP): 16,404
• Household income: $80,831
• Rent vs Own: 43.6% rent · 56.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 939.0

Population outlook (Bay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 206,264 people
• By 2030: 217,740 · +5.6%
• By 2040: 238,738 · +15.7%
• By 2050: 255,545 · +23.9%
• By 2075: 288,295 · +39.8%
• By 2100: 288,638 · +39.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 10% Two or more races 9% Hispanic / Latino 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Italian 3% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Jamaica, South Korea
• Languages at home: 89% English-only · Spanish 6% Other Indo-European 1% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Bay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+47.4) · D 25.8% · R 73.1% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.6pp toward R · 2008: -40.7pp · 2024: -47.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+47.4 2020: R+43.5 2016: R+46.3 2012: R+43.6 2008: R+40.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -116.39%
• Current HPI: 277.8875
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.25%
• Metro: Panama City, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

+28.8% since first listed

17 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-16 Pending — CPARMLS
• 2026-05-01 Price Changed $295,000 CPARMLS
• 2026-01-25 Listed $325,000 CPARMLS
• 2025-12-04 Rental Removed $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2025-10-31 Listed for Rent $1,850 APPFOLIO
• 2025-07-31 Rental Removed $2,000 APPFOLIO
• 2025-06-04 Listed for Rent $2,000 APPFOLIO
• 2024-06-02 Rental Removed $2,000 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-12 Listed for Rent $2,000 APPFOLIO
• 2024-04-10 Rental Removed $2,000 APPFOLIO
• 2024-03-30 Listed for Rent $2,000 APPFOLIO
• 2023-01-11 Listing Removed — CPARMLS
• 2022-11-10 Price Changed $397,000 CPARMLS
• 2022-10-31 Listed $435,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-04-04 Sold (Public Records) $229,000 Public Records
• 2005-03-31 Sold (MLS) $229,000 CPARMLS
• 2005-02-14 Listed $229,000 CPARMLS

Property tax history

+9.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,944 · +6.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.