13393 Mariposa Rd #169 · Victorville, CA 92395

$120,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,832 sqft · Manufactured public records · 50 Days on market

Built 1978 Est $137k · 13% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.2/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Spacious and inviting triple-wide home in a welcoming 55+ community! This open-layout design features an airy living and dining space with an open-concept kitchen, perfect for entertaining or everyday comfort. Offering 2 bedrooms plus a versatile bonus room, ideal for a craft space, home office, or guest area. This home adapts to your lifestyle. The primary suite includes both an oversized bathtub and separate shower for added convenience. Easy access in and out of the home makes daily living simple. A large storage shed provides ample space, while a small, private yard offers a cozy outdoor retreat. Community amenities enhance your lifestyle, and the location is unbeatable, close to shoppi

Key facts

• Open layout design
• Oversized bathtub
• Private yard

Tags

• OPEN LAYOUT DESIGN
• VERSATILE BONUS ROOM
• OVERSIZED BATHTUB
• SEPARATE SHOWER
• LARGE STORAGE SHED
• PRIVATE YARD

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Community features: rural; Multi-unit body type: triple; manager approval required; pets allowed: call
• Financial info: Land lease: $746 per month (seller provided); land lease applies; Rent includes trash and water (see remarks)
• HOA & community: Senior community; Association amenities include pool, clubhouse, water, trash; pet rules (call for rules)

Exterior

• Parking: Carport; Has parking; Located in Victor Villa park
• Utilities: Water: see remarks; Sewer: sewer or septic - unknown
• Home design: Mobile home (model: Pent House); mobile home remains on site; Single-story; Repairs cosmetic needed; Ramp to main level for accessibility
• Construction: Year built: other (source); Estimated living area
• Exterior features: Porch; Deck; Community pool; Has patio; Storage building and shed; Chain link fence

Interior

• Kitchen: Remodeled kitchen; Dishwasher
• Bedrooms: All bedrooms on main level
• Flooring: Carpet; Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; Soaking tub, bathtub, separate shower; Granite counters in bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central furnace heating; Cooling: see remarks (has cooling)
• Interior features: Ceiling fan; One level; Front door entry; Entry level: 1
• Laundry & utility: Indoor laundry in a dedicated room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $120k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $830 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $120k).
• Recommended offer: $116k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 14.6% vs local median 4.2% in Victorville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 54/100 on livability (#906 in CA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: housing A+; Watch: employment D+, schools D-, crime F.
• Victor Elementary (urban): math 25% / reading 25% proficiency, ranked #408 of 517 in CA (top 79%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 70% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.3%/yr); 286 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 5,458 units permitted in San Bernardino County in 2024 (1,500 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $830 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $4k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• San Bernardino County population projected at +15% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 4.3% rent growth), your $34k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 50 days — a 3% lower offer ($116k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; extreme-heat days projected 3→8/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $116,400 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 50 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1978 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.75% ✓
• Cap rate: 14.59%
• Cash-on-cash: 29.64%
• DSCR: 2.32
• GRM: 4.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $137,400
• Comps found: 5

Show comp detail 5 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
13393 Mariposa RD Space 196	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,936 (+6%)	4mo	$145,000	$75	82
13393 Mariposa Rd #156	0.00mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,736 (-5%)	10mo	$155,000	$89	78
13393 Mariposa Rd #163	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,855 (+1%)	24mo	$105,000	$57	78
13393 Mariposa Rd #269	0.00mi	2/2.0	1,623 (-11%)	20mo	$120,000	$74	64
15614 Calico Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,723 (-6%)	11mo	$380,000	$221	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.27% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.6%
• Equity multiple: 2.08×
• Total profit: $36,167
• Equity at exit: $17,892

10-year hold

• IRR: 34.1%
• Equity multiple: 4.31×
• Total profit: $111,137
• Equity at exit: $10,375

Cash invested: $33,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State California: 18 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+13
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

AB1482 statewide rent cap (10% + CPI). Cities (SF/LA/Berkeley) layer stricter rules. Just-cause statewide.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 92395

• Home prices YoY: -14.7%
• Rents YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 286
• Price-to-rent: 4.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,100 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$629
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$150 /mo · $1,800/yr
• Insurance: −$50
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $830

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,050

Max offer price $120,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $30,000
• Closing costs: $3,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
15678 Inca Way Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1399	$2,200	$1.57	16d	1	0.20mi
13632 Nassau Dr Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,990	$1.53	1d	1	0.38mi
13925 Burning Tree Dr Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1440	$2,250	$1.56	1d	1	0.84mi
12692 Senecio Ave Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1275	$2,300	$1.80	1d	1	0.87mi
16376 Appletree Ln Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1544	$2,450	$1.59	1d	1	1.07mi
14257 Sage St Victorville, CA	3.0	3.0	1319	$2,500	$1.90	1d	1	1.19mi
13860 Navarro Dr Victorville, CA	2.0	2.0	1255	$1,850	$1.47	1d	1	1.44mi
14599 Santa Fe Trl Victorville, CA	3.0	2.0	1521	$2,250	$1.48	1d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-09
   listed $120,000 Active
2. 2026-03-31
   historical
3. 2025-08-12
   listed $120,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 67% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 3 d/yr ≥99°F today · 8 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 9/10 Extreme 22 unhealthy d/yr today · 28 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,204
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,722
• − Property taxes: −$1,800
• − Insurance: −$600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,016
• − Management: −$2,016
• − Depreciation: −$3,491
• Taxable income: $8,559
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,054
• After-tax cash flow: $7,906/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Victor Elementary
• NCES district ID: 0641040
• Math proficiency: 25% ▬ 0.00%
• Reading proficiency: 25% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $44,949
• Composite: 21.58/100
• National rank: #8304
• State rank: #408 of 517 in CA

Livability — Victorville

• Score: 54/100
• State rank: #906
• US rank: #24038

Category grades

Amenities F Commute B- Cost of living F Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Victorville, CA
• County: San Bernardino County · 2,030,291 people
• City population: 154,418
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• Population (ZIP): 47,375
• Household income: $62,102
• Rent vs Own: 47.4% rent · 52.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 2449.0

Population outlook (San Bernardino County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,300,329 people
• By 2030: 2,378,907 · +3.4%
• By 2040: 2,523,137 · +9.7%
• By 2050: 2,642,388 · +14.9%
• By 2075: 2,880,769 · +25.2%
• By 2100: 2,909,436 · +26.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.65)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 49% White 30% Two or more races 19% Black 13% Asian 4% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 40% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 1% Slovak 1% Portuguese 1%
• Foreign-born: 18% · Canada, South Korea, Guatemala
• Languages at home: 63% English-only · Spanish 31% Tagalog/Filipino 1% Arabic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · San Bernardino

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 47.5% · R 49.7% · Other 2.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -8.5pp toward R · 2008: 6.3pp · 2024: -2.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.1 2020: D+10.7 2016: D+9.8 2012: D+5.4 2008: D+6.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -68.10%
• Current HPI: 395.2836
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.27%
• Metro: Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.21%
• F500 in state: 116

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in CA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	27	$1,492B
▸Financial Services	3	$174B
▸Retail	3	$44B
▸Insurance	3	$26B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$115B
▸Pharmaceuticals / Biotech	2	$62B

Price history

+0.0% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-09 Listed $120,000 CRMLS
• 2026-03-31 Listing Removed — CRMLS
• 2025-08-12 Listed $120,000 CRMLS

Property tax history

-8.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $105 · +5.1% YoY. Source: county tax records.