7207 Alava Dr · The Woodlands, TX 77354

$275,000

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,923 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 172 Days on market

Built 2014 5,500 sqft lot $143/sqft · 7% below area Est $296k · 7% under

---

Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.2/30.0
• ARV discount +10.7/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.5/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• 1% rule +3.5/10.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.6/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

This single-story brick home is tucked away on a quiet side street in Magnolia’s Durango Creek neighborhood and sits on a corner lot with an oversized yard, just a short walk from the community park. With 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout offers exceptional flexibility, including space for a home office, guest room, or hobby area. The open-concept living and kitchen area creates a welcoming space for gathering and entertaining. The primary suite features a large walk-in closet, while the secondary bedrooms are also generously sized, giving everyone room to spread out. Not only does the home offer space, but also peace of mind: A/C was recently replaced! Step out back to a covered patio, perfect for relaxing evenings, weekend grilling, or enjoying the backyard. Located in Magnolia ISD, near shopping and dining this home combines peaceful neighborhood living with everyday convenience.

Key facts

• Quiet street
• More yard space
• Corner lot

Tags

• CORNER LOT
• MORE YARD SPACE
• QUIET STREET

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $275k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-105 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $256k (6.7% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $234k (15.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $234k (15.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.8% vs local median 2.3% in The Woodlands — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 91/100 on livability (#1 in TX, #47 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: schools A+, amenities A+, commute A+; Watch: cost of living D-.
• Magnolia ISD (rural): math 42% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #247 of 826 in TX (top 30%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents flat; 1604 active listings in the ZIP; 13 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 5d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $29k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $28k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$47k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 172 days — a 12% lower offer ($242k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 6 sale attempts since 6y ago; this cycle's ask is 6% above the opening price — seller raised mid-cycle; expect resistance to lowballs.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 8→27/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $233,552 (15.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 172 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 15% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.85% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.84%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.63%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $295,840
• List price: $275,000
• Delta: -15.50%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6806 Woodland Oaks	0.22mi	4/2.0	2,005 (+4%)	0mo	$325,000	$162	83
723 Hinsdale	0.28mi	4/2.0	1,841 (-4%)	3mo	$299,000	$162	78
6846 Durango Creek Dr	0.29mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,910 (-1%)	3mo	$285,000	$149	78
7119 Durango Dr	0.37mi	4/2.0	1,906 (-1%)	6mo	$299,000	$157	76
33127 Cottonwood Bnd	0.30mi	4/2.5	1,834 (-5%)	1mo	$225,000	$123	76
7127 Hayden Dr	0.44mi	4/2.5	1,869 (-3%)	4mo	$315,000	$169	70
7022 Dillon Dr	0.55mi	4/2.0	1,867 (-3%)	4mo	$300,000	$161	66
6622 Dillon Dr	0.60mi	3/3.0 (-1)	1,896 (-1%)	0mo	$318,000	$168	60
7402 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.71mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,824 (-5%)	6mo	$339,999	$186	48
6711 Durango Creek Dr	0.50mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,654 (-14%)	1mo	$268,000	$162	48
7115 Nickaburr Creek Dr	0.74mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,719 (-11%)	6mo	$300,000	$175	38
40317 De Sota Rd	0.73mi	3/2.0 (-1)	2,156 (+12%)	5mo	$499,999	$232	37

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 0.32% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 22.3%
• Equity multiple: 2.78×
• Total profit: $137,033
• Equity at exit: $247,742

10-year hold

• IRR: 19.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.17×
• Total profit: $397,783
• Equity at exit: $534,265

Cash invested: $77,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77354

• Home prices YoY: 2.4%
• Rents YoY: 0.3%
• Active inventory: 1604
• Price-to-rent: 9.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,336 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,442
• Tax from tax record: −$393 /mo · $4,717/yr
• Insurance: −$115
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$490
• Net cashflow: $-105

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,468

Max offer price $256,497

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $68,750
• Closing costs: $8,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 13 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
7210 Alava Dr Magnolia, TX	4.0	3.0	2031	$2,235	$1.10	43d	1	0.02mi
33200 Forest West St Magnolia, TX	1.0–3.0	1.5–2.5	1307	$4,065	$3.11	1d	22	0.34mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,345	$1.24	22d	1	1.11mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,345	$1.24	17d	1	1.11mi
33154 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	3.0–4.0	2.5	1812	$2,270	$1.25	5d	7	1.11mi
33139 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	5d	1	1.11mi
33123 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	5d	1	1.12mi
33130 Oak Heights Pl Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	5d	1	1.13mi
33150 Willow Heights Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	5d	1	1.13mi
33146 Willow Heights Ln Magnolia, TX	4.0	2.5	1896	$2,270	$1.20	5d	1	1.14mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3047 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,383	$1.73	11d	1	1.20mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 10366 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,372	$1.72	10d	1	1.25mi
10333 Research Forest Dr Unit 3228 Magnolia, TX	3.0	2.0	1377	$2,340	$1.70	3d	1	1.25mi

Listing history 29 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $275,000 Active 172 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $275,000 Active 171 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $275,000 Active 170 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $275,000 Active 169 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $275,000 Active 167 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   pricedays on marketlisting id $275,000 Active 163 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $249,990 Active 76 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $249,990 Active 75 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   days on market $249,990 Active 72 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $249,990 Active 71 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $249,990 Active 70 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $249,990 Active 69 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $249,990 Active 68 DOM
14. 2026-04-03
    status Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    This single-story brick home is tucked away on a quiet side street in Magnolia’s Durango Creek neighborhood and sits on a corner lot with an oversized yard, just a short walk from the community park. With 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout offers exceptional flexibility, including space for a home office, guest room, or hobby area. The open-concept living and kitchen area creates a welcoming space for gathering and entertaining. The primary suite features a large walk-in closet, while the secondary bedrooms are also generously sized, giving everyone room to spread out. Not only does the home offer space, but also peace of mind: A/C was recently replaced! Step out back to a covered patio, perfect for relaxing evenings, weekend grilling, or enjoying the backyard. Located in Magnolia ISD, near shopping and dining this home combines peaceful neighborhood living with everyday convenience.

15. 2026-03-31
    status Pending 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    This single-story brick home is tucked away on a quiet side street in Magnolia’s Durango Creek neighborhood and sits on a corner lot with an oversized yard, just a short walk from the community park. With 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout offers exceptional flexibility, including space for a home office, guest room, or hobby area. The open-concept living and kitchen area creates a welcoming space for gathering and entertaining. The primary suite features a large walk-in closet, while the secondary bedrooms are also generously sized, giving everyone room to spread out. Not only does the home offer space, but also peace of mind: A/C was recently replaced! Step out back to a covered patio, perfect for relaxing evenings, weekend grilling, or enjoying the backyard. Located in Magnolia ISD, near shopping and dining this home combines peaceful neighborhood living with everyday convenience.

16. 2026-03-24
    listed $259,990 Active 912-char remark

    Show marketing remark (912 chars)

    This single-story brick home is tucked away on a quiet side street in Magnolia’s Durango Creek neighborhood and sits on a corner lot with an oversized yard, just a short walk from the community park. With 4 bedrooms and 2 bathrooms, the layout offers exceptional flexibility, including space for a home office, guest room, or hobby area. The open-concept living and kitchen area creates a welcoming space for gathering and entertaining. The primary suite features a large walk-in closet, while the secondary bedrooms are also generously sized, giving everyone room to spread out. Not only does the home offer space, but also peace of mind: A/C was recently replaced! Step out back to a covered patio, perfect for relaxing evenings, weekend grilling, or enjoying the backyard. Located in Magnolia ISD, near shopping and dining this home combines peaceful neighborhood living with everyday convenience.

17. 2026-02-24
    historical
18. 2026-02-05
    price $264,990
19. 2026-01-20
    listed $269,990 Active
20. 2025-12-28
    listed $275,000 Active
21. 2024-12-01
    historical $1,990
22. 2024-11-25
    price $1,990
23. 2024-11-04
    listed $1,995
24. 2020-02-19
    soldstatus Sold
25. 2020-02-18
    soldstatus
26. 2020-02-18
    soldstatus
27. 2020-02-14
    status Pending
28. 2020-02-03
    status Option Pending
29. 2020-01-29
    listed $235,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,717 · $393/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,032 · $419/mo
• Expected delta: +$315/yr (+$26/mo · 6.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 8 d/yr ≥111°F today · 27 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $28,026
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,404
• − Property taxes: −$4,717
• − Insurance: −$1,375
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,242
• − Management: −$2,242
• − Depreciation: −$8,000
• Taxable loss: −$5,954
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,429
• After-tax cash flow: $172/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Magnolia ISD
• NCES district ID: 4828740
• Math proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $71,692
• Composite: 39.46/100
• National rank: #3958
• State rank: #247 of 826 in TX

Livability — The Woodlands

• Score: 91/100
• State rank: #1
• US rank: #47

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living D- Crime A- Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Montgomery County · 663,713 people
• City population: 106,505
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 44,900
• Household income: $112,504
• Rent vs Own: 20.1% rent · 79.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 586.0

Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (66%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 66% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 18% Black 3% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 14% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 15% Other Indo-European 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 12.09%
• Current HPI: 512.87
• Rent YoY: ▲ 0.32%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+10.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-03 Relisted — HARMLS
• 2026-03-31 Pending — HARMLS
• 2026-03-24 Listed $259,990 HARMLS
• 2026-02-24 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2026-02-05 Price Changed $264,990 HARMLS
• 2026-01-20 Listed $269,990 HARMLS
• 2025-12-28 Listed $275,000 ForSaleByOwner.com
• 2024-12-01 Rental Removed $1,990 HARMLS
• 2024-11-25 Price Changed $1,990 HARMLS
• 2024-11-04 Listed for Rent $1,995 HARMLS
• 2020-02-19 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2020-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-18 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records
• 2020-02-14 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-02-03 Pending — HARMLS
• 2020-01-29 Listed $235,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+49.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,717 · +1.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.