638 Sand Ridge Rd · Swansboro, NC 28539

$228,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,290 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 66 Days on market

Built 1988 0.35 ac lot Est $273k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +14.1/30.0
• DSCR +4.3/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Rent growth +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Looking for a home near Camp Lejeune, shopping centers, and restaurants? 638 Sand Ridge may be the one for you. The inside of the home has been updates in recent years and the kitchen is very spacious. The backyard is great for the kids and pets to enjoy some privacy while keeping them in with the fenced in backyard. This is a great starter home for anyone looking for convenience and a great location. If this sounds like the home you've been searching for, don't delay, schedule your showing today.

Key facts

• High demand location
• Usable outdoor space
• Functional layout

Tags

• HIGH DEMAND LOCATION
• INTERIOR UPDATES
• GENEROUSLY SIZED KITCHEN
• FUNCTIONAL LAYOUT
• FENCED BACKYARD
• USABLE OUTDOOR SPACE

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: No association amenities

Exterior

• Parking: Detached garage; Gravel driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Water available
• Home design: Single family residence; One story (entry level: 1)
• Construction: Wood siding and frame construction; Shingle roof; Slab foundation; Built with one level
• Exterior features: Storm doors; Chain link fence around the back yard; No patio or porch listed; Has a view; Other structures: see remarks

Interior

• Kitchen: Electric oven; Dishwasher; Microwave
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central air conditioning; Electric heat; Heat pump; Hot water heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fans
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $228k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $34 ($414/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $178k (21.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $178k (21.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.5% vs local median 3.4% in Swansboro — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#32 in NC, #3,124 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, crime A; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Onslow County Schools (other): math 42% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #84 of 178 in NC (top 47%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Sand Ridge Elementary (math 57% / reading 54%, grade C, #293 of 1,410 statewide, top 21%, 581 students, 58% FRL); Swansboro Middle (math 52% / reading 55%, grade C+, #87 of 475 statewide, top 19%, 967 students, 43% FRL); Swansboro High (math 77% / reading 68%, grade B+, #104 of 535 statewide, top 19%, 1,115 students, 38% FRL).
• Zoned-school proficiency averages 60% at this address vs 46% district-wide (+15 pts) — the actual schools serving this property are materially stronger than the Onslow County Schools average implies; a family-tenant draw the district grade alone would hide.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.6%/yr); 333 active listings in the ZIP; 9 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,246 units permitted in Onslow County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 32% of the median local income ($67k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 66 days — a 6% lower offer ($214k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 24y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $175k; 30% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $178,221 (21.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 66 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 22% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.47%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.65%
• DSCR: 1.03
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $273,480
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
314 Dayrell Dr	0.37mi	3/2.0	1,351 (+5%)	1mo	$275,000	$204	74
327 Buckhead Rd	0.45mi	3/2.0	1,249 (-3%)	3mo	$265,000	$212	72
306 Foxtrace Ln	0.28mi	3/2.0	1,450 (+12%)	3mo	$244,995	$169	64
503 Amber Ave	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,201 (-7%)	1mo	$275,000	$229	62
608 Calabash Dr	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,182 (-8%)	1mo	$249,000	$211	59
266 Parnell Rd	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,198 (-7%)	1mo	$260,000	$217	59
502 Waldorf Ct	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,139 (-12%)	3mo	$253,000	$222	56
601 Cannon Ct	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,184 (-8%)	2mo	$257,000	$217	56
203 Inman Ct	0.47mi	3/2.0	1,138 (-12%)	3mo	$243,000	$214	56
142 Rosemary Ave	0.60mi	3/2.0	1,433 (+11%)	1mo	$270,000	$188	53
423 Dion Dr	0.66mi	3/2.0	1,412 (+10%)	1mo	$285,000	$202	53
128 Daphne Dr	0.72mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,449 (+12%)	1mo	$263,000	$182	40

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.61% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -15.7%
• Equity multiple: 0.44×
• Total profit: $-35,543
• Equity at exit: $33,996

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-31,354
• Equity at exit: $19,713

Cash invested: $63,840 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State North Carolina: 85 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

10-day notice; preempted; landlord-favorable but court speed varies.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 28539

• Home prices YoY: -23.9%
• Rents YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 333
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,782 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,196
• Tax from tax record: −$83 /mo · $994/yr
• Insurance: −$95
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$374
• Net cashflow: $34

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,739

Max offer price $228,000

Occupancy floor 93%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $164	-5% $99	+0% $34	+5% $-30	+10% $-95
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-36	+0% $34	+5% $105	+10% $175
Rate	-1.0pp $149	-0.5pp $92	base $34	+0.5pp $-25	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,000
• Closing costs: $6,840
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 9 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
212 W Volant St Hubert, NC	3.0	2.0	1223	$1,750	$1.43	23d	1	0.25mi
400 Dayrell Dr Hubert, NC	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,800	$1.42	23d	1	0.39mi
135 Rosemary Ave Hubert, NC	3.0	2.5	1610	$2,100	$1.30	23d	1	0.60mi
21 Crown Point Rd Hubert, NC	4.0	2.5	1290	$1,450	$1.12	23d	1	0.72mi
136 Byrum Run Hubert, NC	3.0	2.0	1164	$1,800	$1.55	23d	1	0.78mi
309 N Winchester Ln Hubert, NC	4.0	2.0	1456	$1,700	$1.17	23d	1	1.14mi
104 Parrot Landing Dr Hubert, NC	2.0	2.5	1300	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	1.35mi
104 Parrot Landing Dr Unit 104 Hubert, NC	2.0	2.5	1300	$1,650	$1.27	23d	1	1.35mi
202 Lanieve Ct #4 Hubert, NC	2.0	2.5	1008	$1,400	$1.39	23d	1	1.43mi

Listing history 33 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $228,000 Active 66 DOM
2. 2026-06-19
   days on market $228,000 Active 64 DOM
3. 2026-06-18
   days on market $228,000 Active 63 DOM
4. 2026-06-17
   days on market $228,000 Active 62 DOM
5. 2026-06-16
   days on market $228,000 Active 61 DOM
6. 2026-06-15
   days on market $228,000 Active 60 DOM
7. 2026-06-14
   days on market $228,000 Active 58 DOM
8. 2026-06-13
   days on market $228,000 Active 57 DOM
9. 2026-06-10
   days on market $228,000 Active 55 DOM
10. 2026-06-09
    days on market $228,000 Active 54 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $228,000 Active 53 DOM
12. 2026-06-07
    days on market $228,000 Active 52 DOM
13. 2026-06-03
    days on market $228,000 Active 48 DOM
14. 2026-06-02
    days on market $228,000 Active 47 DOM
15. 2026-06-01
    days on market $228,000 Active 46 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $228,000 Active 45 DOM
17. 2026-05-30
    days on market $228,000 Active 44 DOM
18. 2026-04-04
    listed $228,000 Active
19. 2021-08-24
    soldstatus $175,000 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    Looking for a home near Camp Lejeune, shopping centers, and restaurants? 638 Sand Ridge may be the one for you. The inside of the home has been updates in recent years and the kitchen is very spacious. The backyard is great for the kids and pets to enjoy some privacy while keeping them in with the fenced in backyard. This is a great starter home for anyone looking for convenience and a great location. If this sounds like the home you've been searching for, don't delay, schedule your showing today.

20. 2021-08-24
    soldstatus $175,000

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    Looking for a home near Camp Lejeune, shopping centers, and restaurants? 638 Sand Ridge may be the one for you. The inside of the home has been updates in recent years and the kitchen is very spacious. The backyard is great for the kids and pets to enjoy some privacy while keeping them in with the fenced in backyard. This is a great starter home for anyone looking for convenience and a great location. If this sounds like the home you've been searching for, don't delay, schedule your showing today.

21. 2021-05-13
    listed $175,000 502-char remark

    Show marketing remark (502 chars)

    Looking for a home near Camp Lejeune, shopping centers, and restaurants? 638 Sand Ridge may be the one for you. The inside of the home has been updates in recent years and the kitchen is very spacious. The backyard is great for the kids and pets to enjoy some privacy while keeping them in with the fenced in backyard. This is a great starter home for anyone looking for convenience and a great location. If this sounds like the home you've been searching for, don't delay, schedule your showing today.

22. 2019-07-23
    historical
23. 2019-07-23
    listed $156,900
24. 2018-08-14
    soldstatus $135,000
25. 2018-07-11
    listed $135,000
26. 2018-05-21
    soldstatus $70,000
27. 2018-05-16
    soldstatus $70,000
28. 2017-07-13
    listed $83,500
29. 2006-07-12
    soldstatus $102,900
30. 2006-07-07
    soldstatus $102,900
31. 2006-05-22
    listed $102,900
32. 2003-03-06
    soldstatus $78,000
33. 2002-11-01
    listed $83,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NC · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $994 · $83/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,870 · $156/mo
• Expected delta: +$876/yr (+$73/mo · 88.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥105°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,387
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,772
• − Property taxes: −$994
• − Insurance: −$1,140
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,711
• − Management: −$1,711
• − Depreciation: −$6,633
• Taxable loss: −$3,573
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$858
• After-tax cash flow: $1,271/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Onslow County Schools
• NCES district ID: 3703450
• Math proficiency: 42% ▲ 6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▲ 5.00%
• Median HH income: $46,076
• Composite: 38.66/100
• National rank: #4148
• State rank: #84 of 178 in NC

Livability — Swansboro

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #32
• US rank: #3124

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Onslow County · 164,453 people
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• Population (ZIP): 18,351
• Household income: $66,976
• Rent vs Own: 23.8% rent · 76.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 602.0

Population outlook (Onslow County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 189,789 people
• By 2030: 194,463 · +2.5%
• By 2040: 193,629 · +2.0%
• By 2050: 193,248 · +1.8%
• By 2075: 196,995 · +3.8%
• By 2100: 201,513 · +6.2%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (82%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 82% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 6% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 3% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 3% Romanian 3% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 93% English-only · Spanish 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Onslow

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+35.9) · D 31.5% · R 67.5% · Other 1.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.5pp toward R · 2008: -21.5pp · 2024: -35.9pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+35.9 2020: R+30.2 2016: R+34.6 2012: R+27.0 2008: R+21.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -58.68%
• Current HPI: 186.871
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.61%
• Metro: Jacksonville, NC
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 26

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NC)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	2	$213B
▸Retail	2	$95B
▸Industrial Conglomerate	1	$38B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$35B
▸Utilities	1	$30B
▸Industrial Machinery	1	$19B

Price history

+174.7% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-04 Listed $228,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-08-24 Sold (Public Records) $175,000 Public Records
• 2021-08-24 Sold (MLS) $175,000 Hive MLS
• 2021-05-13 Listed $175,000 Hive MLS
• 2019-07-23 Listing Removed — Hive MLS
• 2019-07-23 Listed $156,900 Hive MLS
• 2018-08-14 Sold (MLS) $135,000 Hive MLS
• 2018-07-11 Listed $135,000 Hive MLS
• 2018-05-21 Sold (MLS) $70,000 Hive MLS
• 2018-05-16 Sold (Public Records) $70,000 Public Records
• 2017-07-13 Listed $83,500 Hive MLS
• 2006-07-12 Sold (Public Records) $102,900 Public Records
• 2006-07-07 Sold (MLS) $102,900 Hive MLS
• 2006-05-22 Listed $102,900 Hive MLS
• 2003-03-06 Sold (MLS) $78,000 Hive MLS
• 2002-11-01 Listed $83,000 Hive MLS

Property tax history

+2.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $994 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.