115 Gulls Cut St · Baytown, TX 77523

$99,000

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 840 sqft · Manufactured · 55 Days on market

Built 2016 Poor condition 4,521 sqft lot $118/sqft · 31% below area Est $143k · 31% under $30/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• Schools +3.2/10.0
• Condition / age +1.0/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

This charming 2 bedroom, 2-bathroom mobile home nestled in the quiet waterfront community of Bay Oaks Harbor in Baytown, offers am open layout with a bright living area, dining space, and kitchen. The primary bedroom is complemented with a private on suite. It also has a secondary room for family members, guests, and/or office The property also offers easy access to the fishing pier, neighborhood pool, and playground area. It is close to the heart of historic Baytown, so you will find many fine dining/shopping options. This property does not have utility connection. However, it does have all of the permits needed for the connections and surveys All rooms size are approximate size and must

Key facts

• Private on suite
• Waterfront community
• Open layout

Tags

• WATERFRONT COMMUNITY
• OPEN LAYOUT
• PRIVATE ON SUITE
• EASY ACCESS TO FISHING PIER
• NEIGHBORHOOD POOL
• PLAYGROUND AREA

Property features AI

Finance

• HOA & community: Association (JDH) with monthly fee of $30; Association amenities: clubhouse, golf course, playground, pool; Community pool

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Residential property; Built in 2016; Pillar/post/pier foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding; Metal roof
• Exterior features: Subdivision lot; Concrete road surface

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen (14 x 12)
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on first floor (12 x 15); Bedroom on first floor (13 x 12); Total of 4 rooms
• Flooring: Laminate
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air (electric)
• Interior features: Kitchen/family room combo; Tub with shower
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $99k. Condition is rated poor.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $512 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $99k).
• Recommended offer: $96k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 13.3% vs local median 4.2% in Baytown — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#412 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D+, crime F, amenities F.
• Goose Creek CISD (urban): math 37% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #473 of 826 in TX (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 61% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Horace Mann J H (math 34% / reading 28%, grade F, #1,015 of 1,662 statewide, top 62%, 811 students, 87% FRL); High Point School (12 students, 75% FRL) — zoned schools average 81% FRL vs 61% district-wide (20 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 16% of the median local income ($124k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $684 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.4% rent growth), your $28k cash investment doubles in ~6 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($96k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,030 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Have any recent inspections been done? Can we get a copy of the seller's disclosures and any deferred-maintenance estimates?
3. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
4. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.65% ✓
• Cap rate: 13.30%
• Cash-on-cash: 25.03%
• DSCR: 2.11
• GRM: 5.0

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $142,826
• List price: $99,000
• Delta: -30.68%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 3 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
135 Canvasback Cay S	0.35mi	1/1.0 (-1)	736 (-12%)	11mo	$99,900	$136	45

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 15.5%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $17,327
• Equity at exit: $14,761

10-year hold

• IRR: 24.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.17×
• Total profit: $60,269
• Equity at exit: $8,560

Cash invested: $27,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 5.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,636 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$519
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$124 /mo · $1,485/yr
• Insurance: −$41
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$30
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$344
• Net cashflow: $512

Break-even live

Break-even rent $988

Max offer price $99,000

Occupancy floor 64%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $580	-5% $546	+0% $512	+5% $478	+10% $443
Rent	-10% $382	-5% $447	+0% $512	+5% $576	+10% $641
Rate	-1.0pp $562	-0.5pp $537	base $512	+0.5pp $486	+1.0pp $460

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,750
• Closing costs: $2,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $30 · $360/yr
• Likely covers: waterpool

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,000 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,000 Active 54 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,000 Active 53 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,000 Active 52 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,000 Active 50 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,000 Active 46 DOM
7. 2026-06-07
   days on market $99,000 Active 44 DOM
8. 2026-06-04
   days on market $99,000 Active 41 DOM
9. 2026-06-03
   days on market $99,000 Active 40 DOM
10. 2026-06-02
    days on market $99,000 Active 39 DOM
11. 2026-06-01
    days on market $99,000 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-05-31
    days on market $99,000 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-04-24
    listed $99,000 Active 761-char remark

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (shaded) · 73% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $19,630
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,546
• − Property taxes: −$1,485
• − Insurance: −$1,292
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,570
• − Management: −$1,570
• − HOA: −$360
• − Depreciation: −$2,880
• Taxable income: $4,927
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,182
• After-tax cash flow: $4,958/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Poor 20/100 Extensive rehab

This mobile home is in poor condition with significant overgrown vegetation and potential structural issues. Immediate repairs and maintenance are needed to improve its value and curb appeal.

Repairs flagged

• Major Weeds and grass around the mobile home — Overgrown vegetation indicates poor maintenance and potential issues with the foundation.
• Major Mobile home on stilts — Stilts may indicate potential water damage or structural issues, requiring inspection and repairs.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Trimming overgrown vegetation — Improves curb appeal and may indicate better maintenance.
• Both Inspecting and repairing the mobile home's foundation — Ensures structural integrity and prevents potential water damage

Renovation cost estimate screening

Repair item	Severity	Est. cost
Weeds and grass around the mobile home · Overgrown vegetation indicates poor maintenance and potential issues with the foundation.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Mobile home on stilts · Stilts may indicate potential water damage or structural issues, requiring inspection and repairs.	Major	$15,000–50,000
Total estimated repair cost · 2 items		$30,000–100,000

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Trimming overgrown vegetation — Improves curb appeal and may indicate better maintenance. ↑
• Both Inspecting and repairing the mobile home's foundation — Ensures structural integrity and prevents potential water damage ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Goose Creek CISD
• NCES district ID: 4821150
• Math proficiency: 37% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $52,468
• Composite: 31.84/100
• National rank: #5877
• State rank: #473 of 826 in TX

Livability — Baytown

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #412
• US rank: #8494

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Baytown, TX
• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• City population: 135,579
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-24 Listed $99,000 HARMLS