Benchmark Plan · Conroe, TX 77318

$377,990

4 bd · 3.5 ba · 2,600 sqft · SingleFamily · 344 Days on market

Good condition

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Schools +3.8/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Cash flow +3.3/30.0
• Rent growth +2.0/5.0
• 1% rule +0.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

4 Bedrooms | 3.5 Bathrooms | Approx. 2,600 Sq. Ft. The Benchmark is a thoughtfully designed two-story home that balances modern comfort with functional living spaces, making it ideal for everyday life and special gatherings alike. From the welcoming foyer, the first floor opens into a bright dining area that flows seamlessly into the great room and kitchen, creating a connected living space perfect for entertaining or relaxing with family. The kitchen offers a spacious layout with a large island, pantry storage, and abundant counter and cabinet space. The tech space off the kitchen provides a perfect spot for homework, organization, or remote work. Nearby, a powder room and central laundry add everyday ease. Outdoor living is enhanced with an optional covered patio or extended covered patio, creating additional space for entertaining or quiet evenings outside. The primary suite, located privately on the main level, offers a peaceful retreat with a well-appointed bath featuring dual vanities, a spacious shower, and a generous walk-in closet. Optional enhancements include an enlarged shower, shower seat, or soaking tub for added luxury. Upstairs, a spacious game room anchors the second floor and creates a flexible area for recreation or relaxation. Three secondary bedrooms are thoughtfully arranged with convenient access to two full baths, providing privacy and comfort for family or guests. The media room adds even more versatility for movie nights or hobby space.

Key facts

• 2 garage spots
• Listed 343 days

🏗️ New construction. The $377,990 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $539,800.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $378k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-2k ($-20k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $297k (21.5% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $259k (31.3% below list).
• Recommended offer: $259k (31.3% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 2.6% vs local median 3.5% in Conroe — below-typical yield; the buyer is paying a premium for something (appreciation thesis, condition, location) that the cap rate doesn't capture.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#169 in TX, #4,447 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, amenities B; Watch: commute F, health & safety F.
• Willis ISD (rural): math 33% / reading 40% proficiency, ranked #458 of 826 in TX (top 55%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: W Lloyd Meador El (math 45% / reading 44%, grade F, #1,155 of 4,322 statewide, top 29%, 617 students, 43% FRL); Robert P Brabham Middle (math 33% / reading 41%, grade F, #756 of 1,662 statewide, top 47%, 1,117 students, 52% FRL); Willis H S (math 19% / reading 46%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,521 students, 57% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-2.1%/yr); 1569 active listings in the ZIP; 6 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 43d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; solid renter incomes; 13,259 units permitted in Montgomery County in 2024 (1,402 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 34% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Montgomery County population projected at +65% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 344 days — a 12% lower offer ($333k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Recommended offer $259,496 (31.3% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 344 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 31% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.48% ✗
• Cap rate: 2.56%
• Cash-on-cash: -13.34%
• DSCR: 0.41
• GRM: 17.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $539,800
• List price: $377,990
• Delta: -29.98%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
608 Spotted Sunfish Dr	0.39mi	4/3.0	2,633 (+1%)	1mo	$398,897	$151	77
359 Skyline Ridge Dr	0.33mi	3/3.0 (-1)	2,630 (+1%)	0mo	$329,000	$125	75
246 Congo Bay Cir	0.48mi	4/3.0	2,587 (-0%)	2mo	$477,534	$185	73
218 Woods Rose Ct	0.43mi	4/3.5	2,701 (+4%)	0mo	$395,999	$147	73
111 Yellow Perch Way	0.35mi	4/3.0	2,368 (-9%)	1mo	$415,900	$176	66
211 Warbler Song Dr	0.55mi	4/3.0	2,507 (-4%)	1mo	$404,990	$162	66
218 Ayana Forest Trl	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,301 (-12%)	3mo	$364,900	$159	56
326 Irenic Mist Ct	0.39mi	3/3.5 (-1)	2,937 (+13%)	2mo	$599,900	$204	54
506 Tawny Rim Dr	0.55mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,447 (-6%)	3mo	$391,900	$160	53
348 Rockrose Path	0.54mi	4/3.0	2,260 (-13%)	1mo	$359,000	$159	50
510 Tawny Rim Dr	0.54mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,220 (-15%)	1mo	$359,900	$162	40
406 Elf Owl Ct	0.59mi	3/2.5 (-1)	2,220 (-15%)	2mo	$408,900	$184	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -44.5%
• Equity multiple: -0.34×
• Total profit: $-202,063
• Equity at exit: $80,486

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: -1.27×
• Total profit: $-342,996
• Equity at exit: $46,672

Cash invested: $151,144 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

Buyer's market Market conditions within 1.0 mi — comparable homes for sale

Active competition Active MLS

• For sale now: 216 active · 51 under contract
• Months of supply: 23.6 mo (4%/mo absorbed)
• Median asking: $440,467 ($180/sqft)
• Median days on market: 121 d
• This list price: 16% of active listings are priced below it
• ARV vs active asking: +15.6% above current asking $/sqft

Closed sales set the value; these active listings set current market conditions and a practical price ceiling.

ZIP-level market 77318

• Home prices YoY: -32.7%
• Rents YoY: -2.1%
• Active inventory: 1569
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,831
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$675 /mo · $8,097/yr
• Insurance: −$225
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $-1,680

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,722

Max offer price $296,642

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-1,307	-5% $-1,494	+0% $-1,680	+5% $-1,867	+10% $-2,053
Rent	-10% $-1,885	-5% $-1,783	+0% $-1,680	+5% $-1,578	+10% $-1,475
Rate	-1.0pp $-1,409	-0.5pp $-1,543	base $-1,680	+0.5pp $-1,820	+1.0pp $-1,963

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $134,950
• Closing costs: $16,194
• Club membership (one-time): —
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 6 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
347 Skyline Ridge Dr Willis, TX	3.0	3.0	3000	$3,100	$1.03	139d	1	0.33mi
142 Scarlet Maple Ct Willis, TX	4.0	3.0	2320	$2,516	$1.08	4d	1	0.39mi
272 Warbler Song Dr Willis, TX	4.0	2.5	2200	$1,277	$0.58	43d	1	0.45mi
202 Brecon Buff Dr Unit 1596557P Willis, TX	4.0	3.0	2701	$6,693	$2.48	0d	1	0.60mi
322 Fanpalm Ct Unit Na Willis, TX	3.0	2.0	2000	$2,500	$1.25	20d	1	0.62mi
216 Elianne Lace Ct Willis, TX	5.0	2.5	2962	$3,095	$1.04	49d	1	0.83mi

Listing history 50 events

1. 2026-09-24
   days on market $377,990 Active 344 DOM
2. 2026-09-23
   days on market $377,990 Active 343 DOM
3. 2026-09-22
   days on market $377,990 Active 342 DOM
4. 2026-09-21
   days on market $377,990 Active 341 DOM
5. 2026-09-20
   days on market $377,990 Active 340 DOM
6. 2026-09-19
   days on market $377,990 Active 339 DOM
7. 2026-09-18
   days on market $377,990 Active 338 DOM
8. 2026-09-17
   days on market $377,990 Active 337 DOM
9. 2026-09-16
   days on market $377,990 Active 336 DOM
10. 2026-09-15
    days on market $377,990 Active 335 DOM
11. 2026-09-14
    days on market $377,990 Active 334 DOM
12. 2026-09-13
    days on market $377,990 Active 333 DOM
13. 2026-09-12
    days on market $377,990 Active 332 DOM
14. 2026-09-11
    days on market $377,990 Active 331 DOM
15. 2026-09-05
    days on market $377,990 Active 325 DOM
16. 2026-09-04
    days on market $377,990 Active 324 DOM
17. 2026-09-03
    days on market $377,990 Active 323 DOM
18. 2026-08-29
    days on market $377,990 Active 318 DOM
19. 2026-08-28
    days on market $377,990 Active 317 DOM
20. 2026-08-27
    days on market $377,990 Active 316 DOM
21. 2026-08-25
    days on market $377,990 Active 314 DOM
22. 2026-08-24
    days on market $377,990 Active 313 DOM
23. 2026-08-23
    days on market $377,990 Active 312 DOM
24. 2026-08-22
    days on market $377,990 Active 311 DOM
25. 2026-08-21
    days on market $377,990 Active 310 DOM
26. 2026-08-20
    days on market $377,990 Active 309 DOM
27. 2026-08-19
    days on market $377,990 Active 308 DOM
28. 2026-08-18
    days on market $377,990 Active 307 DOM
29. 2026-08-17
    days on market $377,990 Active 306 DOM
30. 2026-08-16
    days on market $377,990 Active 305 DOM
31. 2026-08-15
    days on market $377,990 Active 304 DOM
32. 2026-08-14
    days on market $377,990 Active 303 DOM
33. 2026-08-13
    days on market $377,990 Active 302 DOM
34. 2026-08-12
    days on market $377,990 Active 301 DOM
35. 2026-08-11
    days on market $377,990 Active 300 DOM
36. 2026-08-10
    days on market $377,990 Active 299 DOM
37. 2026-08-09
    days on market $377,990 Active 298 DOM
38. 2026-08-08
    days on market $377,990 Active 297 DOM
39. 2026-08-06
    days on market $377,990 Active 295 DOM
40. 2026-08-05
    days on market $377,990 Active 294 DOM
41. 2026-08-04
    days on market $377,990 Active 293 DOM
42. 2026-08-03
    days on market $377,990 Active 292 DOM
43. 2026-07-31
    days on market $377,990 Active 289 DOM
44. 2026-07-30
    days on market $377,990 Active 287 DOM
45. 2026-07-28
    days on market $377,990 Active 286 DOM
46. 2026-07-26
    days on market $377,990 Active 284 DOM
47. 2026-07-24
    days on market $377,990 Active 282 DOM
48. 2026-07-23
    days on market $377,990 Active 281 DOM
49. 2026-07-22
    days on market $377,990 Active 280 DOM
50. 2026-07-21
    days on market $377,990 Active 279 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,237
• − Property taxes: −$8,097
• − Insurance: −$2,699
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − Depreciation: −$15,703
• Taxable loss: −$30,579
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$7,339
• After-tax cash flow: $-12,826/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab Est. rehab $13,000–$39,000 screening

This two-story home is in good condition with a modern kitchen and bathrooms, a well-maintained exterior, and hardwood flooring. It has potential for minor cosmetic upgrades to enhance its curb appeal and interior aesthetics.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Painting the exterior and interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics. ↑
• Both Landscaping improvements — Enhanced landscaping can boost curb appeal and attract potential buyers/tenants. ↑
• Both New flooring in bathrooms — Replacing old flooring with modern options can improve the look and feel of the bathrooms. ↑
• Both Upgrading kitchen appliances — Modernizing the kitchen with new appliances can make the space more functional and appealing to potential buyers/tenants. ↑

ⓘ Rehab cost is a screening estimate — Cosmetic scope × the home's square footage at US $/sqft rules of thumb (the same model as the Flip Finder). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting.

F Composite school gradezoned avg 38/100

Zoned Schools

Elementary W Lloyd Meador El F TX #1,155/4,322 Nat'l #16,061/41,679 Middle Robert P Brabham Middle F TX #756/1,662 Nat'l #6,830/14,009 High Willis H S F TX #1,029/1,632 Nat'l #10,333/17,239

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Willis ISD
• NCES district ID: 4845900
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 40% ▼ -2.00%
• Median HH income: $57,828
• Composite: 32.32/100
• National rank: #5746
• State rank: #458 of 826 in TX

B Composite livability gradescore 74/100

Livability — Conroe

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #169
• US rank: #4447

Category grades

Amenities B Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B- Employment B- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Conroe, TX
• County: Montgomery County · 713,896 people
• City population: 205,417
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 20,792
• Household income: $92,415
• Rent vs Own: 19.3% rent · 80.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 0% of renters

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Population outlook (Montgomery County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 713,896 people
• By 2030: 805,263 · +12.8%
• By 2040: 992,708 · +39.1%
• By 2050: 1,179,590 · +65.2%
• By 2075: 1,628,084 · +128.1%
• By 2100: 1,937,880 · +171.5%

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Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (72%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 72% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 14% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 12%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 4% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 6% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 10%

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Political lean MEDSL · Montgomery

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+45.5) · D 26.8% · R 72.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: +7.2pp toward D · 2008: -52.7pp · 2024: -45.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+45.5 2020: R+43.8 2016: R+51.4 2012: R+60.7 2008: R+52.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -114.58%
• Current HPI: 236.256
• Rent YoY: ▼ -2.09%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

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Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+0.5% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-01-31 Price Changed $367,990 Zillow
• 2026-01-09 Price Changed $357,990 Zillow
• 2025-11-04 Price Changed $352,990 Zillow
• 2025-10-15 Listed $365,990 Zillow