Bruckner Plan · Celina, TX 75009

$371,430

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,882 sqft · SingleFamily · 348 Days on market

↓ 11% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Cash flow +5.4/30.0
• Schools +5.0/10.0
• Livability +3.4/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +1.3/5.0
• 1% rule +1.0/10.0
• DSCR +0.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

Key facts

• Gourmet kitchen
• 2 garage spots
• Listed 348 days

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LIVING SPACES
• GOURMET KITCHEN

🏗️ New construction. The $371,430 list price is a builder figure, so every metric below is computed on the value from comparable previous sales — $478,429.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $371k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-1k ($-13k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $327k (11.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $286k (23.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $286k (23.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 3.7% vs local median 2.8% in Celina — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 68/100 on livability (#450 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, schools A; Watch: cost of living C-, amenities F, commute F.
• Celina ISD (rural): math 50% / reading 61% proficiency, ranked #71 of 826 in TX (top 9%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents falling (-4.6%/yr); 2895 active listings in the ZIP; 14 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; high-income renter base; 19,194 units permitted in Collin County in 2024 (3,988 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $3k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $14k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Collin County population projected at +60% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 348 days — a 12% lower offer ($327k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $57k (13%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Recommended offer $286,097 (23.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 348 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 23% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.60% ✗
• Cap rate: 3.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -9.37%
• DSCR: 0.58
• GRM: 13.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $478,429
• List price: $371,430
• Delta: -22.36%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1902 Blue Sage Ct	0.65mi	4/3.0	1,882 (0%)	10mo	$404,259	$215	61
1802 Blue Sage Ct	0.65mi	4/3.0	1,882 (0%)	12mo	$399,169	$212	60
1153 Beautyberry Ln	0.72mi	4/3.0	1,882 (0%)	8mo	$418,418	$222	59
1904 Blue Sage Ct	0.65mi	4/3.0	1,930 (+3%)	8mo	$395,580	$205	59
1205 Sideoats Mews	0.68mi	4/3.0	1,882 (0%)	12mo	$408,000	$217	58
1819 Nimblewell Dr	0.68mi	4/3.0	1,882 (0%)	13mo	$402,894	$214	58
1145 Beautyberry Ln	0.74mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,693 (-10%)	1mo	$354,331	$209	41
1900 Blue Sage Ct	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,693 (-10%)	7mo	$363,314	$215	40
1804 Blue Sage Ct	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,693 (-10%)	8mo	$358,495	$212	39
1234 Beebalm Mews	0.65mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,693 (-10%)	13mo	$394,677	$233	35
1209 Sideoats Mews	0.67mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,693 (-10%)	12mo	$392,243	$232	35
1205 Beebalm Mews	0.70mi	3/2.5 (-1)	1,693 (-10%)	12mo	$390,969	$231	34

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -36.3%
• Equity multiple: -0.14×
• Total profit: $-152,497
• Equity at exit: $71,335

10-year hold

• IRR: -73.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.87×
• Total profit: $-250,815
• Equity at exit: $41,366

Cash invested: $133,960 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75009

• Home prices YoY: -23.1%
• Rents YoY: -4.6%
• Active inventory: 2895
• Price-to-rent: 10.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,861 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,509
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$598 /mo · $7,176/yr
• Insurance: −$199
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$601
• Net cashflow: $-1,046

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,185

Max offer price $327,050

Occupancy floor —

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $119,607
• Closing costs: $14,353
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 14 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1513 Mill Creek Way Celina, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–2.5	1364	$2,995	$2.19	1d	12	0.56mi
2706 Boca Dr Prosper, TX	4.0	3.0	2102	$3,445	$1.64	43d	1	0.67mi
1325 Choate Pkwy Celina, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,893	$1.89	1d	62	0.67mi
1356 Hill Country Pl Celina, TX	3.0	2.5	1888	$2,500	$1.32	43d	1	0.69mi
2009 Brookhurst St Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2386	$2,895	$1.21	18d	1	0.84mi
2600 Kinship Pkwy Celina, TX	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1067	$2,174	$2.04	2d	46	0.86mi
912 Slate Ln Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1879	$2,690	$1.43	43d	1	1.08mi
3008 Evergreen Trl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2503	$2,695	$1.08	12d	1	1.09mi
1637 Palo Duro Way Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2545	$5,800	$2.28	1d	1	1.16mi
716 Bluebird Way Celina, TX	3.0	2.0	2069	$2,550	$1.23	18d	1	1.20mi
2522 Runhappy Ct Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2395	$3,500	$1.46	43d	1	1.29mi
2432 Preakness Pl Celina, TX	4.0	3.0	2309	$3,500	$1.52	43d	1	1.32mi
2806 Morgan Dr Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	2120	$2,150	$1.01	43d	1	1.45mi
512 Mustang Trl Celina, TX	4.0	2.0	1810	$2,250	$1.24	43d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $371,430 Active 348 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $371,430 Active 347 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $371,430 Active 346 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $371,430 Active 345 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $371,430 Active 343 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $371,430 Active 339 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $371,430 Active 338 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   days on market $371,430 Active 337 DOM
9. 2026-06-04
   pricedays on market $371,430 Active 334 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $379,250 Active 333 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $379,250 Active 332 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $379,250 Active 331 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $379,250 Active 330 DOM
14. 2026-03-23
    price $379,250 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

15. 2026-03-07
    price $376,145 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

16. 2026-01-08
    price $388,324 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

17. 2025-12-04
    price $396,674 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

18. 2025-12-01
    price $398,324 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

19. 2025-08-29
    price $389,223 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

20. 2025-08-15
    status Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

21. 2025-08-15
    price $394,223 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

22. 2024-07-13
    historical 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

23. 2024-06-01
    listed $427,990 Active 291-char remark

    Show marketing remark (291 chars)

    Boasting open concept living spaces and stylish designs, the two-story Bruckner is a gorgeous floor plan. Discover the heart of the home, where a gourmet kitchen seamlessly flows into the casual dining area and great room, perfect for those who crave open spaces and effortless entertaining.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $34,332
• − Mortgage interest: −$26,799
• − Property taxes: −$7,176
• − Insurance: −$2,392
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,747
• − Management: −$2,747
• − Depreciation: −$13,918
• Taxable loss: −$21,447
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$5,147
• After-tax cash flow: $-7,406/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Celina ISD
• NCES district ID: 4813290
• Math proficiency: 50% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 61% ▼ -5.00%
• Median HH income: $83,282
• Composite: 50.49/100
• National rank: #1853
• State rank: #71 of 826 in TX

Livability — Celina

• Score: 68/100
• State rank: #450
• US rank: #9135

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living C- Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety B- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Celina, TX
• County: Collin County · 1,159,394 people
• City population: 34,260
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 34,260
• Household income: $168,250
• Rent vs Own: 8.0% rent · 92.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 152.0

Population outlook (Collin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,210,074 people
• By 2030: 1,358,201 · +12.2%
• By 2040: 1,654,061 · +36.7%
• By 2050: 1,937,359 · +60.1%
• By 2075: 2,567,039 · +112.1%
• By 2100: 2,952,048 · +144.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Two or more races 11% Hispanic / Latino 11% Asian 11% Black 8%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 9%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 5% Lithuanian 4% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 83% English-only · Spanish 6% Chinese 3% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Collin

• 2024 margin: R (+11.1) · D 43.1% · R 54.3% · Other 2.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +14.4pp toward D · 2008: -25.6pp · 2024: -11.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+11.1 2020: R+4.3 2016: R+17.0 2012: R+31.6 2008: R+25.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -83.07%
• Current HPI: 276.6307
• Rent YoY: ▼ -4.62%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-11.4% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-03-23 Price Changed $379,250 Zillow
• 2026-03-07 Price Changed $376,145 Zillow
• 2026-01-08 Price Changed $388,324 Zillow
• 2025-12-04 Price Changed $396,674 Zillow
• 2025-12-01 Price Changed $398,324 Zillow
• 2025-08-29 Price Changed $389,223 Zillow
• 2025-08-15 Relisted — Zillow
• 2025-08-15 Price Changed $394,223 Zillow
• 2024-07-13 Delisted — Zillow
• 2024-06-01 Listed $427,990 Zillow