5002 Creekside Ave · Cove, TX 77523

$299,000

5 bd · 3.5 ba · 3,160 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 62 Days on market

Built 2009 9,539 sqft lot $95/sqft · 19% below area Est $368k · 19% under $42/mo HOA · 2% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +11.3/30.0
• Schools +6.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.4/5.0
• DSCR +3.3/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Spacious, well-located, and priced to move—this 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in Barbers Hill ISD checks all the boxes. Designed with room to live and grow, the home offers a functional layout with generously sized bedrooms, multiple living areas, and a large upstairs game room perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The open feel carries throughout, giving you flexibility for everyday living and hosting. Situated on a spacious lot, you’ll enjoy an extended patio ideal for outdoor gatherings, morning coffee, or unwinding at the end of the day. Located in a centrally positioned neighborhood, you’re just minutes from top-rated schools, shopping, and everyday conveniences.

Key facts

• Extended patio
• 9,539 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots

Tags

• LARGE UPSTAIRS GAME ROOM
• EXTENDED PATIO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/3.5-bath single-family listed at $299k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-111 ($-1k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $279k (6.6% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $266k (11.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $266k (11.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 64/100 on livability (#766 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: schools D, amenities F, commute F.
• Barbers Hill ISD (rural): math 72% / reading 65% proficiency, ranked #12 of 826 in TX (top 2%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 776 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; high-income renter base; 629 units permitted in Chambers County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Chambers County population projected at +46% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 62 days — a 6% lower offer ($281k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 2 sale attempts since 17y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $26k (8%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→26/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $266,199 (11.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 62 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.59%
• DSCR: 0.93
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $367,825
• List price: $299,000
• Delta: -18.71%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8511 Holly Spring Ln	0.07mi	5/2.5	3,069 (-3%)	2mo	$385,000	$125	86
4727 Bay Vista Dr	0.27mi	5/3.0	2,929 (-7%)	4mo	$384,600	$131	70
4703 Bay Vista Dr	0.32mi	5/3.0	2,929 (-7%)	4mo	$368,881	$126	68
8438 Bay Oaks Dr	0.35mi	5/3.0	2,929 (-7%)	4mo	$369,900	$126	66
8427 Tranquil Bay Ct	0.32mi	5/3.0	2,929 (-7%)	6mo	$398,292	$136	65
8414 Bay Oaks Dr	0.34mi	5/3.0	2,929 (-7%)	6mo	$384,900	$131	65
4815 Manila Bay Cir	0.15mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,692 (-15%)	0mo	$419,900	$156	61
5122 Creekside Ave	0.13mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,690 (-15%)	5mo	$360,000	$134	60
8614 Briar Oaks Ln	0.25mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,778 (-12%)	2mo	$359,998	$130	60
8215 Shady Grove St	0.23mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,532 (+12%)	9mo	$380,000	$108	57
8003 Dogwood Ct	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	3,415 (+8%)	9mo	$549,900	$161	53
14118 Little River Dr	0.57mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,762 (-13%)	6mo	$420,000	$152	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.35×
• Total profit: $-54,271
• Equity at exit: $44,582

10-year hold

• IRR: -9.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.39×
• Total profit: $-51,169
• Equity at exit: $25,852

Cash invested: $83,720 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77523

• Home prices YoY: -31.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 776
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,662 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,568
• Tax from tax record: −$480 /mo · $5,755/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$42
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$559
• Net cashflow: $-111

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,803

Max offer price $279,359

Occupancy floor 99%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,750
• Closing costs: $8,970
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
8411 Hannah Rd Baytown, TX	4.0	2.5	2329	$2,195	$0.94	24d	1	0.42mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $42 · $504/yr

Listing history 13 events

1. 2026-06-09
   days on market $299,000 Pending 62 DOM
2. 2026-06-08
   days on market $299,000 Pending 61 DOM
3. 2026-06-07
   statusdays on market $299,000 Pending 60 DOM
4. 2026-06-04
   days on market $299,000 Active 57 DOM
5. 2026-06-03
   days on market $299,000 Active 56 DOM
6. 2026-06-02
   days on market $299,000 Active 55 DOM
7. 2026-06-01
   days on market $299,000 Active 54 DOM
8. 2026-05-31
   statusdays on market $299,000 Active 53 DOM
9. 2026-04-27
   price $299,000 689-char remark

   Show marketing remark (689 chars)

   Spacious, well-located, and priced to move—this 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in Barbers Hill ISD checks all the boxes. Designed with room to live and grow, the home offers a functional layout with generously sized bedrooms, multiple living areas, and a large upstairs game room perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The open feel carries throughout, giving you flexibility for everyday living and hosting. Situated on a spacious lot, you’ll enjoy an extended patio ideal for outdoor gatherings, morning coffee, or unwinding at the end of the day. Located in a centrally positioned neighborhood, you’re just minutes from top-rated schools, shopping, and everyday conveniences.

10. 2026-04-08
    listed $325,000 Active 689-char remark

    Show marketing remark (689 chars)

    Spacious, well-located, and priced to move—this 5-bedroom, 3.5-bath home in Barbers Hill ISD checks all the boxes. Designed with room to live and grow, the home offers a functional layout with generously sized bedrooms, multiple living areas, and a large upstairs game room perfect for entertaining or relaxing. The open feel carries throughout, giving you flexibility for everyday living and hosting. Situated on a spacious lot, you’ll enjoy an extended patio ideal for outdoor gatherings, morning coffee, or unwinding at the end of the day. Located in a centrally positioned neighborhood, you’re just minutes from top-rated schools, shopping, and everyday conveniences.

11. 2009-10-28
    soldstatus 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    5 Bedroom, 3.5 Bath, 2 Story. Large front porch with stone columns. Upgraded maple cabinets, tile backsplash, energy efficiency package includes Techshield, garage door opener, complete alarm system. GE appliances. Come See!

12. 2009-10-06
    historical 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    5 Bedroom, 3.5 Bath, 2 Story. Large front porch with stone columns. Upgraded maple cabinets, tile backsplash, energy efficiency package includes Techshield, garage door opener, complete alarm system. GE appliances. Come See!

13. 2009-06-24
    listed $192,550 224-char remark

    Show marketing remark (224 chars)

    5 Bedroom, 3.5 Bath, 2 Story. Large front porch with stone columns. Upgraded maple cabinets, tile backsplash, energy efficiency package includes Techshield, garage door opener, complete alarm system. GE appliances. Come See!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $5,755 · $480/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $5,755 · $480/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 10/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 26 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,944
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,749
• − Property taxes: −$5,755
• − Insurance: −$1,495
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,556
• − Management: −$2,556
• − HOA: −$504
• − Depreciation: −$8,698
• Taxable loss: −$6,368
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,528
• After-tax cash flow: $194/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Barbers Hill ISD
• NCES district ID: 4809450
• Math proficiency: 72% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 65% ▼ -1.00%
• Median HH income: $87,257
• Composite: 61.73/100
• National rank: #737
• State rank: #12 of 826 in TX

Livability — Cove

• Score: 64/100
• State rank: #766
• US rank: #13996

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B+ Crime A Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Chambers County · 30,186 people
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 30,186
• Household income: $124,188
• Rent vs Own: 18.7% rent · 81.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 549.0

Population outlook (Chambers County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 46,946 people
• By 2030: 51,094 · +8.8%
• By 2040: 59,578 · +26.9%
• By 2050: 68,318 · +45.5%
• By 2075: 90,485 · +92.7%
• By 2100: 104,885 · +123.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (62%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 62% Hispanic / Latino 25% Two or more races 11% Black 8% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 22%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1% Serbian 1%
• Foreign-born: 9% · Canada
• Languages at home: 82% English-only · Spanish 17%

Political lean MEDSL · Chambers

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+65.6) · D 16.8% · R 82.4%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.4pp toward R · 2008: -51.2pp · 2024: -65.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+65.6 2020: R+61.7 2016: R+62.1 2012: R+61.1 2008: R+51.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -102.33%
• Current HPI: 222.6999
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.42%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+55.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Price Changed $299,000 HARMLS
• 2026-04-08 Listed $325,000 HARMLS
• 2009-10-28 Sold (MLS) — HARMLS
• 2009-10-06 Listing Removed — HARMLS
• 2009-06-24 Listed $192,550 HARMLS

Property tax history

+2.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $5,755 · +6.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.