9527 Fm 1003 Rd · Kountze, TX 77625

$175,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,216 sqft · Manufactured public records · 27 Days on market

Built 2014

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +13.5/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• 1% rule +2.7/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to Honey Island! Situated on nearly an acre across two lots, this well maintained home offers the perfect blend of country living and modern comfort. Inside, you’ll find an open concept layout with spacious living areas, updated flooring, and a beautiful kitchen featuring dark cabinetry, farmhouse sink, stainless appliances, and plenty of storage. The oversized primary bedroom provides a relaxing retreat with ample space for additional seating or office setup. Outside, enjoy wide open green space, a large metal carport ideal for RV or boat storage, plus a storage building/workshop for all your tools and hobbies. Peaceful surroundings with room to spread out while still being c

Key facts

• Beautiful kitchen
• Stainless appliances
• Storage building

Tags

• OPEN CONCEPT LAYOUT
• BEAUTIFUL KITCHEN
• FARMHOUSE SINK
• STAINLESS APPLIANCES
• LARGE METAL CARPORT
• STORAGE BUILDING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Carport with 2 spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank sewer
• Home design: Residential mobile home; Mobile home with land; Located in Out Of Town subdivision
• Exterior features: Composition roof; On-site storage structure

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating (electric); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Dishwasher; Microwave; Range

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $175k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $7 ($82/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $134k (23.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $134k (23.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 73/100 on livability (#219 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools D+, amenities F, commute F.
• Kountze ISD (rural): math 35% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #506 of 826 in TX (top 61%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 129 active listings in the ZIP; 358 units permitted in Hardin County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($172k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→25/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $134,393 (23.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.77% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.17%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 10.9

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -16.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.43×
• Total profit: $-27,997
• Equity at exit: $26,093

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.51×
• Total profit: $-24,122
• Equity at exit: $15,131

Cash invested: $49,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77625

• Home prices YoY: -22.0%
• Active inventory: 129
• Price-to-rent: 10.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,344 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$918
• Tax from tax record: −$64 /mo · $771/yr
• Insurance: −$73
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$282
• Net cashflow: $7

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,335

Max offer price $175,000

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $106	-5% $56	+0% $7	+5% $-43	+10% $-92
Rent	-10% $-99	-5% $-46	+0% $7	+5% $60	+10% $113
Rate	-1.0pp $95	-0.5pp $51	base $7	+0.5pp $-39	+1.0pp $-85

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $43,750
• Closing costs: $5,250
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $175,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $175,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $175,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $175,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-14
   days on market $175,000 Active 22 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $175,000 Active 21 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $175,000 Active 19 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $175,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $175,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $175,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $175,000 Active 13 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $175,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $175,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $175,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $175,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-30
    days on market $175,000 Active 8 DOM
17. 2026-05-23
    listed $175,000 Active
18. 2016-09-23
    soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $771 · $64/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $3,202 · $267/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,432/yr (+$203/mo · 315.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 4/10 Moderate FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 20% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 6/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥111°F today · 25 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $16,127
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,803
• − Property taxes: −$771
• − Insurance: −$875
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,290
• − Management: −$1,290
• − Depreciation: −$5,091
• Taxable loss: −$2,993
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$718
• After-tax cash flow: $800/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Kountze ISD
• NCES district ID: 4825920
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $50,702
• Composite: 30.42/100
• National rank: #6244
• State rank: #506 of 826 in TX

Livability — Kountze

• Score: 73/100
• State rank: #219
• US rank: #5401

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A+ Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 9,384

Population outlook (Hardin County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 57,780 people
• By 2030: 58,296 · +0.9%
• By 2040: 58,421 · +1.1%
• By 2050: 57,391 · -0.7%
• By 2075: 53,132 · -8.0%
• By 2100: 44,905 · -22.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 8% Black 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 6%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 8% Italian 3% Slovak 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 91% English-only · Spanish 8% French/Haitian/Cajun 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Hardin

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+75.8) · D 11.9% · R 87.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.6pp toward R · 2008: -61.2pp · 2024: -75.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+75.8 2020: R+73.8 2016: R+73.9 2012: R+67.6 2008: R+61.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -41.86%
• Current HPI: 148.6087
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-23 Listed $175,000 BBOR
• 2016-09-23 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+2.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $771 · +12.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.