280 Split Rail Dr · Tuscaloosa, AL 35405

$219,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,412 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 3 Days on market

Built 2006 7,841 sqft lot Est $239k · 8% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.6/30.0
• ARV discount +11.0/15.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Rent growth +3.9/5.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• 1% rule +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

GREAT HOME WITH LOTS OF UPGRADES, READY TO MOVE IN! NEW CARPET IN LIVING ROOM, GORGEOUS CHERRY HARDWOODS IN FOYER, KITCHEN AND DINING AREA, GRANITE COUNTER-TOPS AND SIDE BY SIDE REFRIGERATOR IN KITCHEN. LARGE LOT/SIDE YARD, LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD WITH COVERED PATIO, VERY WELL MAINTAINED HOME.

Key facts

• Open floor plan
• Level yard
• Newer dishwasher

Tags

• HARDWOOD-STYLE LVP FLOORING
• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• NEWER DISHWASHER
• LEVEL YARD

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $220k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $52 ($626/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $171k (22.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $171k (22.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 3.4% in Tuscaloosa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 77/100 on livability (#9 in AL, #2,909 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, health & safety A+, cost of living A; Watch: crime F, employment D-.
• Tuscaloosa County (suburban): math 21% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #47 of 129 in AL (top 36%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Englewood Elementary School (math 19% / reading 48%, grade F, #318 of 627 statewide, top 51%, 512 students, 74% FRL); Hillcrest High School (math 18% / reading 26%, grade F, #142 of 305 statewide, top 51%, 1,356 students, 65% FRL) — zoned schools average 69% FRL vs 45% district-wide (24 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+5.4%/yr); 462 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 46d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 88% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 622 units permitted in Tuscaloosa County in 2024 (69 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($62k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Tuscaloosa County population projected at +26% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 3 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 3 sale attempts since 8y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $166k; 32% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 59% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $170,507 (22.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
2. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
3. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.78% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.58%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.02%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 10.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $238,628
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
9046 Cotton Field Cir	0.04mi	3/2.0	1,478 (+5%)	5mo	$204,150	$138	86
200 Roscommon Rd	0.24mi	3/2.0	1,380 (-2%)	0mo	$230,000	$167	85
128 Roscommon Rd Rd	0.25mi	3/2.0	1,438 (+2%)	3mo	$235,000	$163	82
198 Wexford Way Way	0.19mi	3/2.0	1,339 (-5%)	0mo	$215,000	$161	82
335 Old Bridge Rd	0.14mi	3/2.0	1,508 (+7%)	3mo	$258,900	$172	80
165 Roscommon Rd	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,473 (+4%)	7mo	$215,000	$146	77
333 Prairie Field Drive Dr	0.26mi	3/2.0	1,465 (+4%)	6mo	$255,900	$175	76
402 Barn Wood Rd	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,570 (+11%)	7mo	$254,900	$162	70
162 Wexford Way	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,269 (-10%)	6mo	$214,900	$169	70
9332 Parkway Gardens Loop	0.53mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+6%)	3mo	$284,900	$190	58
9218 Parkway Gardens Loop	0.61mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,497 (+6%)	3mo	$274,900	$184	54
9374 Parkway Gardens Loop	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,617 (+14%)	5mo	$279,350	$173	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 5.42% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.54×
• Total profit: $-28,169
• Equity at exit: $32,788

10-year hold

• IRR: -0.5%
• Equity multiple: 0.96×
• Total profit: $-2,369
• Equity at exit: $19,013

Cash invested: $61,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 35405

• Home prices YoY: -26.9%
• Rents YoY: 5.4%
• Active inventory: 462
• Price-to-rent: 10.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,705 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,153
• Tax from tax record: −$50 /mo · $600/yr
• Insurance: −$92
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$358
• Net cashflow: $52

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,639

Max offer price $219,900

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $177	-5% $114	+0% $52	+5% $-10	+10% $-72
Rent	-10% $-82	-5% $-15	+0% $52	+5% $120	+10% $187
Rate	-1.0pp $163	-0.5pp $108	base $52	+0.5pp $-5	+1.0pp $-63

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,975
• Closing costs: $6,597
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
9046 Cotton Field Cir Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1478	$1,645	$1.11	45d	1	0.04mi
146 Wexford Way Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1498	$1,745	$1.16	23d	1	0.18mi
9332 Parkway Gardens Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1497	$1,706	$1.14	45d	1	0.53mi
9212 Parkway Gardens Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,796	$1.01	45d	1	0.60mi
9230 Parkway Gardens Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1774	$1,995	$1.12	45d	1	0.62mi
9576 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1493	$1,795	$1.20	45d	1	0.69mi
9594 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	3.0	2.0	1679	$1,795	$1.07	45d	1	0.71mi
9295 Havenridge Loop Tuscaloosa, AL	4.0	2.0	1583	$1,745	$1.10	45d	1	0.86mi

Listing history 7 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-20
   listed $219,900 Active
3. 2025-11-08
   price $239,900
4. 2025-10-13
   listed $245,000 Active
5. 2018-05-18
   soldstatus $166,450 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   GREAT HOME WITH LOTS OF UPGRADES, READY TO MOVE IN! NEW CARPET IN LIVING ROOM, GORGEOUS CHERRY HARDWOODS IN FOYER, KITCHEN AND DINING AREA, GRANITE COUNTER-TOPS AND SIDE BY SIDE REFRIGERATOR IN KITCHEN. LARGE LOT/SIDE YARD, LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD WITH COVERED PATIO, VERY WELL MAINTAINED HOME.

6. 2018-05-18
   soldstatus $166,450

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   GREAT HOME WITH LOTS OF UPGRADES, READY TO MOVE IN! NEW CARPET IN LIVING ROOM, GORGEOUS CHERRY HARDWOODS IN FOYER, KITCHEN AND DINING AREA, GRANITE COUNTER-TOPS AND SIDE BY SIDE REFRIGERATOR IN KITCHEN. LARGE LOT/SIDE YARD, LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD WITH COVERED PATIO, VERY WELL MAINTAINED HOME.

7. 2018-04-03
   listed $169,905 293-char remark

   Show marketing remark (293 chars)

   GREAT HOME WITH LOTS OF UPGRADES, READY TO MOVE IN! NEW CARPET IN LIVING ROOM, GORGEOUS CHERRY HARDWOODS IN FOYER, KITCHEN AND DINING AREA, GRANITE COUNTER-TOPS AND SIDE BY SIDE REFRIGERATOR IN KITCHEN. LARGE LOT/SIDE YARD, LARGE PRIVATE BACKYARD WITH COVERED PATIO, VERY WELL MAINTAINED HOME.

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $600 · $50/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $902 · $75/mo
• Expected delta: +$302/yr (+$25/mo · 50.3%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥108°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 59% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $20,461
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,318
• − Property taxes: −$600
• − Insurance: −$1,100
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,637
• − Management: −$1,637
• − Depreciation: −$6,397
• Taxable loss: −$3,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$775
• After-tax cash flow: $1,401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Tuscaloosa County
• NCES district ID: 0103390
• Math proficiency: 21% ▼ -24.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $53,000
• Composite: 28.88/100
• National rank: #6641
• State rank: #47 of 129 in AL

Livability — Tuscaloosa

• Score: 77/100
• State rank: #9
• US rank: #2909

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute C Cost of living A Crime F Employment D- Housing A- Health & safety A+ User ratings D+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Tuscaloosa County · 206,491 people
• City population: 134,228
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• Population (ZIP): 49,420
• Household income: $62,301
• Rent vs Own: 45.6% rent · 54.4% own
• Severe rent burden: 1963.0

Population outlook (Tuscaloosa County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 228,293 people
• By 2030: 240,551 · +5.4%
• By 2040: 263,856 · +15.6%
• By 2050: 286,491 · +25.5%
• By 2075: 335,783 · +47.1%
• By 2100: 370,520 · +62.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.56)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 56% White 35% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Lithuanian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 5% · Canada, China
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 1% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Tuscaloosa

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+20.4) · D 39.4% · R 59.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: -4.4pp toward R · 2008: -16.0pp · 2024: -20.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+20.4 2020: R+14.8 2016: R+19.5 2012: R+17.4 2008: R+16.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -71.25%
• Current HPI: 193.1929
• Rent YoY: ▲ 5.42%
• Metro: Tuscaloosa, AL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

+29.4% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — WAMLS
• 2026-04-20 Listed $219,900 WAMLS
• 2025-11-08 Price Changed $239,900 WAMLS
• 2025-10-13 Listed $245,000 WAMLS
• 2018-05-18 Sold (Public Records) $166,450 Public Records
• 2018-05-18 Sold (MLS) $166,450 WAMLS
• 2018-04-03 Listed $169,905 WAMLS

Property tax history

+4.5%/yr

Latest (2025): $600 · +7.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.