12904 Windfall Cir · Dallas, TX 75253

$219,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,164 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 28 Days on market

Built 1960 0.49 ac lot Est $212k · at est.

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +14.8/30.0
• ARV discount +6.0/15.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• DSCR +4.5/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.8/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.4/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Move-In Ready Home on Spacious Cul-de-Sac Lot Welcome to this charming 3-bedroom, 1-bath home located in a quiet cul-de-sac in Dallas. Offering approximately 1,164 sq ft of comfortable living space, this home features a bright and functional layout designed for everyday living. Natural light fills the main living area, creating a warm and inviting space to relax or entertain. The kitchen offers ample cabinet and counter space, making meal preparation simple and efficient. Each bedroom is well-proportioned and provides flexibility for family living, guests, or a home office. One of the standout features of this property is the large lot, offering plenty of outdoor space for entertaining,

Key facts

• Cul-de-sac lot
• Large lot
• Outdoor living

Tags

• CUL-DE-SAC LOT
• LARGE LOT
• OUTDOOR LIVING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $219k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $59 ($707/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $209k (4.7% below list).
• Recommended offer: $209k (4.7% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.6% vs local median 2.3% in Dallas — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#24 in TX, #1,380 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Dallas ISD (urban): math 31% / reading 36% proficiency, ranked #559 of 826 in TX (top 68%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 83% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Ebby Halliday El (math 28% / reading 28%, grade F, #2,740 of 4,322 statewide, top 64%, 622 students, 85% FRL); Seagoville Middle (math 18% / reading 23%, grade F, #1,407 of 1,662 statewide, top 86%, 1,419 students, 88% FRL); Seagoville H S (math 15% / reading 21%, grade F, #1,445 of 1,632 statewide, top 89%, 1,779 students, 87% FRL) — zoned schools at 87% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-0.6%/yr); 125 active listings in the ZIP; 7 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 10d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 12,577 units permitted in Dallas County in 2024 (6,829 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($61k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Dallas County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 28 days — a 2% lower offer ($216k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wind risk, 27% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→24/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $208,691 (4.7% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.62%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.15%
• DSCR: 1.05
• GRM: 8.7

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $211,848
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
12904 Windfall Cir	0.00mi	3/1.0	1,164 (0%)	1mo	$219,000	$188	99
13310 Pine Valley Dr	0.55mi	3/2.0	1,289 (+11%)	7mo	$235,000	$182	47
13208 Pine Valley Dr	0.46mi	3/2.0	1,317 (+13%)	18mo	$220,000	$167	38

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.0%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-37,771
• Equity at exit: $32,654

10-year hold

• IRR: -17.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.16×
• Total profit: $-51,373
• Equity at exit: $18,935

Cash invested: $61,320 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 75253

• Home prices YoY: -7.2%
• Rents YoY: -0.6%
• Active inventory: 125
• Price-to-rent: 8.7×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,087 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,148
• Tax from tax record: −$350 /mo · $4,200/yr
• Insurance: −$91
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$438
• Net cashflow: $59

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,012

Max offer price $219,000

Occupancy floor 92%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $183	-5% $121	+0% $59	+5% $-3	+10% $-65
Rent	-10% $-106	-5% $-23	+0% $59	+5% $141	+10% $224
Rate	-1.0pp $169	-0.5pp $115	base $59	+0.5pp $2	+1.0pp $-56

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $54,750
• Closing costs: $6,570
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 7 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2222 Echo Lake Dr Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1350	$1,850	$1.37	18d	1	0.31mi
1759 Round House Ln Unit 1546066P Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1442	$3,430	$2.38	16d	1	0.93mi
1717 Round House Ln Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1260	$2,099	$1.67	9d	1	0.99mi
13660 C F Hawn Fwy Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0–2.0	671	$1,475	$2.20	0d	34	1.13mi
1612 Hunterwood Dr Dallas, TX	2.0	1.0	948	$1,595	$1.68	9d	1	1.33mi
1256 Mosely Cir Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1267	$1,500	$1.18	45d	1	1.40mi
1339 Mosely Cir Dallas, TX	3.0	2.0	1498	$1,000	$0.67	1d	1	1.40mi

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-04-10
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-02
   historical Active Option Contract
3. 2026-03-17
   price $219,000
4. 2026-03-13
   listed $189,900 Active
5. 2018-12-03
   soldstatus

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,200 · $350/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,200 · $350/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥110°F today · 24 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 6/10 Major 27% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,043
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,267
• − Property taxes: −$4,200
• − Insurance: −$1,095
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,003
• − Management: −$2,003
• − Depreciation: −$6,371
• Taxable loss: −$2,897
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$695
• After-tax cash flow: $1,403/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Dallas ISD
• NCES district ID: 4816230
• Math proficiency: 31% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 36% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $42,881
• Composite: 28.41/100
• National rank: #6763
• State rank: #559 of 826 in TX

Livability — Dallas

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #24
• US rank: #1380

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A- Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings B

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Dallas, TX
• County: Dallas County · 2,612,404 people
• City population: 1,168,437
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 24,395
• Household income: $60,874
• Rent vs Own: 31.1% rent · 68.9% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Dallas County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 2,979,839 people
• By 2030: 3,191,823 · +7.1%
• By 2040: 3,619,611 · +21.5%
• By 2050: 4,026,915 · +35.1%
• By 2075: 4,957,073 · +66.4%
• By 2100: 5,508,725 · +84.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Hispanic (70%)
• Race & ethnicity: Hispanic / Latino 70% Two or more races 35% White 15% Black 14% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 64%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 32% · Canada
• Languages at home: 36% English-only · Spanish 62%

Political lean MEDSL · Dallas

• 2024 margin: Strong D (+22.2) · D 60.2% · R 38.0% · Other 1.8%
• 2008→2024 swing: +6.9pp toward D · 2008: 15.3pp · 2024: 22.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+22.2 2020: D+31.6 2016: D+26.2 2012: D+15.4 2008: D+15.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -27.55%
• Current HPI: 357.4375
• Rent YoY: ▼ -0.58%
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

+15.3% since first listed

5 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-10 Pending — NTREIS
• 2026-04-02 Contingent — NTREIS
• 2026-03-17 Price Changed $219,000 NTREIS
• 2026-03-13 Listed $189,900 NTREIS
• 2018-12-03 Sold (Public Records) — Public Records

Property tax history

+6.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,200 · +17.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.