414 Patterson St · Americus, GA 31719

$15,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 728 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1940 4,791 sqft lot ↓ 23% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the B- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +0.7/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Investment opportunity in the center of town. Full Reno or demo and rebuild!

Key facts

• Full reno
• Center of town
• 4,791 sq ft lot

Tags

• INVESTMENT OPPORTUNITY
• CENTER OF TOWN
• FULL RENO

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $15k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $363 ($4k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($600 rent vs $15k).
• Recommended offer: $15k (3.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 35.3% vs local median 4.8% in Americus — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 50/100 on livability (#582 in GA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: schools F, crime F, amenities F.
• Sumter County (rural): math 7% / reading 11% proficiency, ranked #170 of 174 in GA (top 98%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 77% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 16 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 39 units permitted in Sumter County in 2024 (15 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $104 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $450 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Sumter County population projected at -38% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $4k cash investment doubles in ~2 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($15k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1940 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $14,550 (3.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 3% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1940 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 4.00% ✓
• Cap rate: 35.34%
• Cash-on-cash: 103.73%
• DSCR: 5.62
• GRM: 2.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $48,048
• Comps found: 1

Show comp detail 1 sale within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
310 Tabby Ln	0.52mi	3/1.0	828 (+14%)	2mo	$55,000	$66	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 5.93×
• Total profit: $20,707
• Equity at exit: $2,237

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 12.40×
• Total profit: $47,862
• Equity at exit: $1,297

Cash invested: $4,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Georgia: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Magistrate court evictions in 10-30 days; no rent control; preempted; few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 31719

• Active inventory: 16
• Price-to-rent: 2.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $600 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$79
• Tax from tax record: −$26 /mo · $312/yr
• Insurance: −$6
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$126
• Net cashflow: $363

Break-even live

Break-even rent $140

Max offer price $15,000

Occupancy floor 34%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $3,750
• Closing costs: $450
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
606 Lowe St Unit B Americus, GA	2.0	1.0	720	$600	$0.83	43d	1	0.94mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-23
   status Under Contract
2. 2026-04-04
   price $15,000
3. 2026-03-22
   listed $19,500 New

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast GA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $312 · $26/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 4/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 3/10 Moderate 2 unhealthy d/yr today · 3 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $7,200
• − Mortgage interest: −$840
• − Property taxes: −$312
• − Insurance: −$75
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$576
• − Management: −$576
• − Depreciation: −$436
• Taxable income: $4,384
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,052
• After-tax cash flow: $3,305/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sumter County
• NCES district ID: 1304620
• Math proficiency: 7% ▼ -15.00%
• Reading proficiency: 11% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $33,494
• Composite: 7.21/100
• National rank: #9961
• State rank: #170 of 174 in GA

Livability — Americus

• Score: 50/100
• State rank: #582
• US rank: #25593

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Americus, GA
• Population (ZIP): 9,085

Population outlook (Sumter County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 26,953 people
• By 2030: 24,861 · -7.8%
• By 2040: 20,500 · -23.9%
• By 2050: 16,694 · -38.1%
• By 2075: 9,901 · -63.3%
• By 2100: 5,570 · -79.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.58)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 57% White 30% Hispanic / Latino 9% Two or more races 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Cuban 4%
• Common ancestry: Italian 1% Slovak 1% Scottish 1%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 94% English-only · Spanish 6%

Political lean MEDSL · Sumter

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 48.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.8pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: 2.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+2.2 2020: D+4.8 2016: D+2.2 2012: D+8.4 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -85.05%
• Current HPI: 117.0001
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.66%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in GA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Paper / Packaging	2	$29B
▸Retail	1	$160B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$91B
▸Airlines	1	$62B
▸Consumer Goods	1	$47B
▸Utilities	1	$25B

Price history

-23.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-23 Pending — GAMLS
• 2026-04-04 Price Changed $15,000 GAMLS
• 2026-03-22 Listed $19,500 GAMLS

Property tax history

+4.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $312 · +10.9% YoY. Source: county tax records.