4210 E Carter Ave · St. Louis, MO 63115

$39,900

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,150 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 118 Days on market

Built 1910 3,388 sqft lot $35/sqft · 26% below area Est $54k · 26% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +3.3/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +1.2/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Welcome to your next investment opportunity! This 2 bed 1 bath ranch home with over 1,100+ sqft in the OFallon neighborhood. Property has been well maintained and ready for excellent monthly cashflow. Freshly painted, new luxury vinyl plank flooring, and updated systems. Property being sold as is.

Key facts

• 3,388 sq ft lot
• Built 1910
• Listed 118 days

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $40k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $514 ($6k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($961 rent vs $40k).
• Recommended offer: $36k (9.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 21.7% vs local median 5.0% in St. Louis — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade B — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• St. Louis City (urban): math 10% / reading 18% proficiency, ranked #312 of 324 in MO (top 96%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 80% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 97 active listings in the ZIP; 18 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 44d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 50% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; lower-income renter base — watch delinquency; 294 units permitted in St. Louis city in 2024 (227 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 38% of the median local income ($31k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $276 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• St. Louis County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $11k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 118 days — a 9% lower offer ($36k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 7y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (20%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $28k; 42% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1910 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→21/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $36,309 (9.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 118 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 9% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1910 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 2.41% ✓
• Cap rate: 21.75%
• Cash-on-cash: 55.19%
• DSCR: 3.46
• GRM: 3.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $53,723
• List price: $39,900
• Delta: -25.73%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
4250 E Kossuth Ave	0.30mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,100 (-4%)	4mo	$70,000	$64	70
4207 W San Francisco Ave	0.47mi	2/1.0	1,138 (-1%)	16mo	$60,000	$53	63
4400 San Francisco Ave	0.60mi	2/1.0	1,167 (+2%)	8mo	$7,000	$6	63
4416 San Francisco Ave	0.62mi	2/1.5	1,167 (+2%)	6mo	$29,900	$26	62
4202 E Carter Ave	0.02mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,296 (+13%)	15mo	$75,000	$58	61
4627 Korte Ave	0.62mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,072 (-7%)	2mo	$18,100	$17	53
4339 Linton	0.52mi	2/0.5	1,025 (-11%)	9mo	$33,333	$33	48
4625 Kossuth Ave	0.73mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,128 (-2%)	13mo	$29,900	$27	47
4207 College Ave	0.45mi	2/1.5	1,013 (-12%)	13mo	$70,000	$69	46
4610 Penrose St	0.66mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,053 (-8%)	3mo	$80,000	$76	45
4561 Carter Ave	0.62mi	2/1.0	1,062 (-8%)	16mo	$17,000	$16	45
4514 Bircher Blvd	0.70mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,222 (+6%)	4mo	$30,000	$25	44

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 53.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.35×
• Total profit: $26,257
• Equity at exit: $5,949

10-year hold

• IRR: 58.6%
• Equity multiple: 6.82×
• Total profit: $64,989
• Equity at exit: $3,450

Cash invested: $11,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Missouri: 81 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Generally landlord-friendly; St Louis has some habitability requirements.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 63115

• Home prices YoY: -2.6%
• Active inventory: 97
• Price-to-rent: 3.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $961 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$209
• Tax from tax record: −$20 /mo · $236/yr
• Insurance: −$17
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$202
• Net cashflow: $514

Break-even live

Break-even rent $311

Max offer price $39,900

Occupancy floor 42%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $9,975
• Closing costs: $1,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 18 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
4223 Red Bud Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1167	$895	$0.77	43d	1	0.12mi
4426 Holly Ave Unit B St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,100	$1.10	14d	1	0.14mi
4493 Bessie Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	880	$1,250	$1.42	43d	1	0.51mi
4497 Lee Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1012	$1,000	$0.99	16d	1	0.56mi
4460 Bircher Blvd Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	1100	$725	$0.66	10d	1	0.61mi
3819 Kossuth Ave Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.5	816	$725	$0.89	23d	1	0.67mi
4642 Farlin Ave Unit 1F St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	1056	$800	$0.76	43d	1	0.80mi
2046 Obear Ave Unit A St. Louis, MO	3.0	1.5	1456	$1,070	$0.73	43d	1	0.89mi
4040 Shreve Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	1.0	1201	$1,250	$1.04	43d	1	0.94mi
5200 Von Phul St Saint Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	800	$1,050	$1.31	23d	1	0.94mi
2002 Obear Ave St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	4d	1	0.95mi
4847 Calvin Ave Saint Louis, MO	3.0	2.0	1000	$1,473	$1.47	2d	1	0.98mi
1906 Obear Ave #1 St. Louis, MO	2.0	1.5	1024	$970	$0.95	21d	1	0.98mi
3644 Natural Bridge Ave Apt 303 St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	710	$825	$1.16	43d	1	1.02mi
4908 W Florissant Ave Apt A St. Louis, MO	1.0	1.0	750	$695	$0.93	43d	1	1.11mi
4919 Thekla Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	931	$700	$0.75	43d	1	1.12mi
2603 Belle Glade Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	945	$800	$0.85	4d	1	1.24mi
4627 Maffitt Ave Saint Louis, MO	2.0	1.0	704	$795	$1.13	43d	1	1.30mi

Listing history 39 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $39,900 Active 118 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $39,900 Active 117 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $39,900 Active 116 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $39,900 Active 115 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   pricedays on market $39,900 Active 113 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $50,000 Active 109 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 108 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $50,000 Active 107 DOM
9. 2026-06-05
   days on market $50,000 Active 104 DOM
10. 2026-06-03
    days on market $50,000 Active 103 DOM
11. 2026-06-02
    days on market $50,000 Active 102 DOM
12. 2026-06-01
    days on market $50,000 Active 101 DOM
13. 2026-05-31
    days on market $50,000 Active 100 DOM
14. 2026-02-27
    status Active 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    Welcome to your next investment opportunity! This 2 bed 1 bath ranch home with over 1,100+ sqft in the OFallon neighborhood. Property has been well maintained and ready for excellent monthly cashflow. Freshly painted, new luxury vinyl plank flooring, and updated systems. Property being sold as is.

15. 2026-01-27
    status Pending 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    Welcome to your next investment opportunity! This 2 bed 1 bath ranch home with over 1,100+ sqft in the OFallon neighborhood. Property has been well maintained and ready for excellent monthly cashflow. Freshly painted, new luxury vinyl plank flooring, and updated systems. Property being sold as is.

16. 2026-01-21
    listed $50,000 Active 298-char remark

    Show marketing remark (298 chars)

    Welcome to your next investment opportunity! This 2 bed 1 bath ranch home with over 1,100+ sqft in the OFallon neighborhood. Property has been well maintained and ready for excellent monthly cashflow. Freshly painted, new luxury vinyl plank flooring, and updated systems. Property being sold as is.

17. 2025-06-27
    price $79,900
18. 2025-05-16
    listed $89,900 Active
19. 2025-05-08
    historical
20. 2024-06-12
    historical
21. 2024-05-08
    status Active
22. 2024-04-26
    historical
23. 2024-04-04
    price $67,400
24. 2024-02-29
    price $69,200
25. 2024-01-28
    price $71,900
26. 2024-01-16
    price $74,900
27. 2023-12-13
    listed $80,000 Active
28. 2022-08-12
    soldstatus $28,000
29. 2022-08-10
    soldstatus Closed
30. 2022-07-27
    status Pending
31. 2022-05-19
    listed $45,000 Active
32. 2022-05-19
    historical $45,000
33. 2019-06-18
    soldstatus $20,000
34. 2019-06-11
    historical
35. 2019-06-10
    status Pending
36. 2019-06-07
    soldstatus Closed
37. 2019-05-18
    listed $24,900 Active
38. 2018-08-13
    price $14,900
39. 2018-07-26
    soldstatus $3,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MO · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $236 · $20/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $387 · $32/mo
• Expected delta: +$151/yr (+$13/mo · 63.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 5/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 21 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 5 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,535
• − Mortgage interest: −$2,235
• − Property taxes: −$236
• − Insurance: −$200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$923
• − Management: −$923
• − Depreciation: −$1,161
• Taxable income: $5,858
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,406
• After-tax cash flow: $4,760/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: St. Louis City
• NCES district ID: 2929280
• Math proficiency: 10% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 18% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $35,685
• Composite: 11.54/100
• National rank: #9699
• State rank: #312 of 324 in MO

Livability — St. Louis

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: St. Louis, MO
• County: Saint Louis City · 254,015 people
• City population: 283,259
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• Population (ZIP): 14,488
• Household income: $30,622
• Rent vs Own: 57.7% rent · 42.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 1655.0

Population outlook (St. Louis County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 315,737 people
• By 2030: 313,865 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 305,439 · -3.3%
• By 2050: 296,529 · -6.1%
• By 2075: 271,028 · -14.2%
• By 2100: 255,359 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly Black (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 95% White 2% Two or more races 2%
• Foreign-born: 0%

Political lean MEDSL · St. Louis

• 2024 margin: Solid D (+64.7) · D 81.4% · R 16.7% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -3.5pp toward R · 2008: 68.2pp · 2024: 64.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+64.7 2020: D+66.2 2016: D+63.7 2012: D+66.6 2008: D+68.2

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -3.42%
• Current HPI: 127.3403
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: St. Louis, MO-IL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.84%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MO)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$163B
▸Insurance	1	$21B
▸Industrial Technology	1	$17B
▸Retail	1	$16B
▸Industrial Distribution	1	$10B
▸Utilities	1	$9B

Price history

+1566.7% since first listed

26 events — show timeline

• 2026-02-27 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-27 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-01-21 Listed $50,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-06-27 Price Changed $79,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-16 Listed $89,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-05-08 Coming Soon — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-06-12 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-05-08 Relisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-26 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-04-04 Price Changed $67,400 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-02-29 Price Changed $69,200 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-28 Price Changed $71,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2024-01-16 Price Changed $74,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2023-12-13 Listed $80,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-08-12 Sold (Public Records) $28,000 Public Records
• 2022-08-10 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-07-27 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-19 Listed $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2022-05-19 Coming Soon $45,000 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-18 Sold (Public Records) $20,000 Public Records
• 2019-06-11 Delisted — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-10 Pending — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-06-07 Sold (MLS) — MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2019-05-18 Listed $24,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-08-13 Price Changed $14,900 MARIS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2018-07-26 Sold (Public Records) $3,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-2.3%/yr

Latest (2024): $236 · +4.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.