470 Moonlight Graham Blvd · Ward, AR 72176

$240,000

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 1,892 sqft · SingleFamily · 76 Days on market

Built 2026 Good condition 6,098 sqft lot Est $327k · 27% under $25/mo HOA · 1% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.7/30.0
• Appreciation +7.7/10.0
• Schools +4.0/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +2.4/10.0
• DSCR +1.8/10.0

Listing remarks

This is a newly built home in a developing neighborhood. Short distance from Cabot and Beebe. Quick access to Interstate 57. The school district is listed as 4 WA, Ward, City.

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2026

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size approximately 0.14 acre; Living area reported as approximately 1,892
• HOA & community: Annual association fee of $300

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage for 2 cars
• Utilities: Public sewer; Public water; Electric service via cooperative; All utilities underground
• Home design: Single-family property
• Construction: Slab foundation
• Exterior features: Hardie Board siding; Architectural shingle roof; Level, cleared lot; Paved road access; Inside city limits

Interior

• Kitchen: Free-standing stove; Microwave; Dishwasher; Garbage disposal; Pantry
• Flooring: Carpet; Luxury vinyl
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms; 1 half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Central electric heat; Central electric cooling
• Interior features: Washer connection; Electric dryer connection; Electric water heater
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room; Washer connection; Dryer connection (electric)

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $240k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-282 ($-3k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $199k (17.0% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $177k (26.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $177k (26.1% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 69/100 on livability (#66 in AR) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime B; Watch: amenities F, commute F.
• Cabot School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 43% proficiency, ranked #29 of 238 in AR (top 12%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Ward Central Elementary (math 57% / reading 42%, grade D, #93 of 454 statewide, top 23%, 494 students, 62% FRL); Cabot Middle School North (math 52% / reading 41%, grade D+, #49 of 201 statewide, top 26%, 907 students, 42% FRL); Cabot High School (math 29% / reading 45%, grade F, #64 of 292 statewide, top 26%, 2,198 students, 36% FRL) — zoned schools average 47% FRL vs 30% district-wide (17 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 156 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 185 units permitted in Lonoke County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 31% of the median local income ($69k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $15k of equity ($2k loan paydown + $13k appreciation (5.3% local appreciation)).
• Lonoke County population projected at +12% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 76 days — a 6% lower offer ($226k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→19/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $177,453 (26.1% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 76 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 26% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
5. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.74% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.88%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.03%
• DSCR: 0.78
• GRM: 11.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $327,316
• Comps found: 4

Show comp detail 4 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
470 Moonlight Graham Blvd	0.41mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,891 (-0%)	4mo	$229,000	$121	73
21 Libra Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,830 (-3%)	3mo	$315,000	$172	51
20 Libra Ln	0.70mi	4/2.0 (-1)	2,000 (+6%)	5mo	$345,000	$173	46
19 Libra Ln	0.72mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,773 (-6%)	7mo	$309,000	$174	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

5.35% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 9.6%
• Equity multiple: 1.63×
• Total profit: $42,303
• Equity at exit: $141,203

10-year hold

• IRR: 11.1%
• Equity multiple: 3.10×
• Total profit: $141,332
• Equity at exit: $248,109

Cash invested: $67,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arkansas: 92 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+14
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Only US state where non-payment is criminal. Strongly landlord-favorable; very few tenant protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 72176

• Home prices YoY: 2.6%
• Active inventory: 156
• Price-to-rent: 11.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,775 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,259
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$300 /mo · $3,600/yr
• Insurance: −$100
• HOA: −$25
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$373
• Net cashflow: $-282

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,131

Max offer price $199,236

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-116	-5% $-199	+0% $-282	+5% $-365	+10% $-448
Rent	-10% $-422	-5% $-352	+0% $-282	+5% $-212	+10% $-142
Rate	-1.0pp $-161	-0.5pp $-221	base $-282	+0.5pp $-344	+1.0pp $-407

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $60,000
• Closing costs: $7,200
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
21 Kasidyann Ct Ward, AR	4.0	2.0	1415	$1,795	$1.27	25d	1	1.04mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $25 · $300/yr

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $240,000 Active 76 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $240,000 Active 73 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $240,000 Active 72 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $240,000 Active 71 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $240,000 Active 70 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $240,000 Active 68 DOM
7. 2026-06-10
   days on market $240,000 Active 65 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $240,000 Active 64 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $240,000 Active 63 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $240,000 Active 62 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $240,000 Active 59 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $240,000 Active 58 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $240,000 Active 57 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $240,000 Active 56 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 55 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $240,000 Active 54 DOM
17. 2026-04-06
    listed $240,000 New Listing

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥109°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 3/10 Moderate 8% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $21,294
• − Mortgage interest: −$13,444
• − Property taxes: −$3,600
• − Insurance: −$1,200
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,704
• − Management: −$1,704
• − HOA: −$300
• − Depreciation: −$6,982
• Taxable loss: −$7,638
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,833
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,547/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 6 photos

Good 80/100 None rehab

This newly built home in a developing neighborhood is in good condition with minimal maintenance required. It offers a good starting point for investors looking to make minor updates for increased value.

Value-add opportunities

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics
• Both Install smart home devices — Modern technology can increase home's appeal and market value
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Well-lit exterior can improve safety and curb appeal

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Both Paint interior walls — Fresh paint can enhance curb appeal and interior aesthetics ↑
• Both Install smart home devices — Modern technology can increase home's appeal and market value ↑
• Both Add outdoor lighting — Well-lit exterior can improve safety and curb appeal ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Cabot School District
• NCES district ID: 0503750
• Math proficiency: 48% ▼ -14.00%
• Reading proficiency: 43% ▼ -10.00%
• Median HH income: $55,993
• Composite: 39.66/100
• National rank: #3912
• State rank: #29 of 238 in AR

Livability — Ward

• Score: 69/100
• State rank: #66
• US rank: #8464

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime B Employment B Housing A+ Health & safety C+ User ratings A-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Lonoke County · 46,130 people
• City population: 8,678
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• Population (ZIP): 8,678
• Household income: $68,840
• Rent vs Own: 28.2% rent · 71.8% own
• Severe rent burden: 90.0

Population outlook (Lonoke County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 78,072 people
• By 2030: 80,673 · +3.3%
• By 2040: 84,977 · +8.8%
• By 2050: 87,778 · +12.4%
• By 2075: 91,398 · +17.1%
• By 2100: 87,858 · +12.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (85%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 85% Two or more races 7% Hispanic / Latino 6% Black 2% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2%
• Common ancestry: Russian 2% Iranian 1% Slovak 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% Tagalog/Filipino 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Lonoke

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+53.7) · D 22.2% · R 75.8% · Other 2.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -6.2pp toward R · 2008: -47.5pp · 2024: -53.7pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+53.7 2020: R+52.8 2016: R+53.3 2012: R+50.9 2008: R+47.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 5.35%
• Current HPI: 208.9387
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Little Rock-North Little Rock-Conway, AR
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.80%
• F500 in state: 10

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AR)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Retail	1	$681B
▸Food / Agriculture	1	$53B
▸Retail / Energy	1	$22B
▸Transportation / Logistics	1	$12B
▸Energy	1	$4B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-04-06 Listed $240,000 CARMLS