159 Goodrich Ave · Lexington-Fayette, KY 40503

$165,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,000 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 1 Days on market

Built 1925 8,055 sqft lot Est $258k · 36% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +16.6/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +5.2/10.0
• 1% rule +3.7/10.0
• Rent growth +3.6/5.0
• Schools +3.4/10.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Charming 2-bedroom, 1-bath bungalow located in the established Pensacola Park neighborhood. This brick home features a cozy family room with fireplace and a unique primary bedroom with double doors leading to a private porch?perfect for relaxing or future enhancement. Situated on a lot with mature trees and established landscaping, this property offers a wonderful setting in a convenient location close to schools, shopping, parks, and medical facilities. Home is in need of remodeling and is priced accordingly, making it an excellent opportunity for investors or buyers looking to renovate and add value. Property will not qualify for FHA or VA financing. (Property has been condemned for sani

Key facts

• Private porch
• Mature trees
• 8,055 sq ft lot

Tags

• PRIVATE PORCH
• MATURE TREES
• ESTABLISHED LANDSCAPING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer; Electricity connected; Natural gas connected; Water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: Single-story house
• Construction: Brick veneer and vinyl siding exterior; Composition roof; Block foundation; Built area about 1,000
• Exterior features: Neighborhood view

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 total rooms
• Flooring: Wood floors
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Electric cooling
• Interior features: Fireplace; Partial unfinished basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry on lower level

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $165k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $101 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $143k (13.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $143k (13.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 7.0% vs local median 3.8% in Lexington-Fayette — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade C — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Fayette County (urban): math 35% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #27 of 165 in KY (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Picadome Elementary School (math 32% / reading 42%, grade F, #255 of 676 statewide, top 42%, 430 students, 56% FRL); Morton Middle School (math 41% / reading 58%, grade C, #25 of 217 statewide, top 12%, 705 students, 43% FRL); Lafayette High School (math 47% / reading 54%, grade D+, #10 of 254 statewide, top 4%, 2,432 students, 38% FRL) — zoned schools at 46% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+4.4%/yr); 81 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 25d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,036 units permitted in Fayette County in 2024 (542 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $5k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Fayette County population projected at +35% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 1 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1925 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $143,150 (13.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1925 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
4. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
5. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.87% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.03%
• Cash-on-cash: 2.61%
• DSCR: 1.12
• GRM: 9.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $258,000
• Comps found: 11

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
2564 Millbrook Dr	0.56mi	3/1.0 (+1)	988 (-1%)	4mo	$247,620	$251	64
269 Bradford Dr	0.57mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,025 (+2%)	2mo	$280,000	$273	62
2401 Maplewood Dr	0.53mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,025 (+2%)	6mo	$272,000	$265	61
554 Stratford Dr	0.64mi	2/1.0	978 (-2%)	14mo	$252,500	$258	54
370 Sheridan Dr	0.36mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,112 (+11%)	10mo	$257,400	$231	51
2410 Millbrook Dr	0.43mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (+5%)	20mo	$273,900	$261	50
165 Suburban Ct	0.30mi	3/2.0 (+1)	1,075 (+8%)	18mo	$260,000	$242	49
2383 Millbrook Dr	0.46mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,050 (+5%)	21mo	$265,000	$252	48
503 Lone Oak Dr	0.71mi	2/1.5	1,106 (+11%)	1mo	$287,225	$260	46
202 Westwood Ct	0.70mi	3/1.0 (+1)	1,083 (+8%)	13mo	$279,000	$258	38
2525 Southview Dr	0.64mi	3/1.5 (+1)	1,098 (+10%)	19mo	$305,000	$278	31

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 4.4% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -10.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.60×
• Total profit: $-18,328
• Equity at exit: $24,602

10-year hold

• IRR: 0.2%
• Equity multiple: 1.02×
• Total profit: $742
• Equity at exit: $14,266

Cash invested: $46,200 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Kentucky: 83 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+16
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit (URLTA cities); generally landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 40503

• Rents YoY: 4.4%
• Active inventory: 81
• Price-to-rent: 9.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,432 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$865
• Tax from tax record: −$96 /mo · $1,154/yr
• Insurance: −$69
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$301
• Net cashflow: $101

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,304

Max offer price $165,000

Occupancy floor 88%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $194	-5% $147	+0% $101	+5% $54	+10% $7
Rent	-10% $-12	-5% $44	+0% $101	+5% $157	+10% $214
Rate	-1.0pp $184	-0.5pp $143	base $101	+0.5pp $58	+1.0pp $14

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $41,250
• Closing costs: $4,950
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1901 Nicholasville Rd Unit 2 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,450	$1.32	25d	1	0.30mi
1729 Nicholasville Rd Unit 1737-313 Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	741	$1,800	$2.43	25d	1	0.39mi
1489 Elizabeth St Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	1182	$1,950	$1.65	15d	1	0.84mi
476 Bob O Link Dr Unit B Lexington, KY	2.0	1.0	1002	$1,300	$1.30	25d	1	0.87mi
342 Waller Ave Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0–1.5	720	$1,400	$1.94	25d	1	0.93mi
120 Burley Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	1.0	928	$1,500	$1.62	25d	1	1.21mi
2504 Larkin Rd Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	850	$1,174	$1.38	25d	10	1.26mi
140 Gazette Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	1.5	875	$1,750	$2.00	25d	1	1.26mi
2331 Harrodsburg Rd Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	15d	1	1.26mi
2181 Cypress Dr Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$875	$1.25	25d	1	1.29mi
2181 Cypress Dr Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$850	$1.21	15d	1	1.29mi
2177 Cypress Dr Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	750	$850	$1.13	15d	1	1.29mi
2151 Cypress Dr Unit A Lexington, KY	1.0	1.0	700	$895	$1.28	25d	1	1.38mi
261 Simpson Ave Lexington, KY	3.0	2.0	1025	$1,710	$1.67	15d	1	1.41mi
2070 Garden Springs Dr Lexington, KY	1.0–2.0	1.0	712	$1,150	$1.61	23d	9	1.42mi

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-05-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-05-19
   listed $165,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast KY · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,154 · $96/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,419 · $118/mo
• Expected delta: +$265/yr (+$22/mo · 22.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥101°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 2% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $17,178
• − Mortgage interest: −$9,243
• − Property taxes: −$1,154
• − Insurance: −$825
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,374
• − Management: −$1,374
• − Depreciation: −$4,800
• Taxable loss: −$1,592
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$382
• After-tax cash flow: $1,590/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Fayette County
• NCES district ID: 2101860
• Math proficiency: 35% ▼ -16.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -13.00%
• Median HH income: $49,245
• Composite: 34.38/100
• National rank: #5211
• State rank: #27 of 165 in KY

Livability — Lexington-Fayette

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• County: Fayette County · 317,143 people
• City population: 321,882
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• Population (ZIP): 27,451
• Household income: $76,482
• Rent vs Own: 38.3% rent · 61.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 1151.0

Population outlook (Fayette County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 363,454 people
• By 2030: 388,270 · +6.8%
• By 2040: 438,688 · +20.7%
• By 2050: 490,667 · +35.0%
• By 2075: 625,394 · +72.1%
• By 2100: 721,354 · +98.5%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (81%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 81% Hispanic / Latino 7% Two or more races 7% Asian 6% Black 3%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 4% Italian 3% Serbian 3%
• Foreign-born: 11% · Canada, China, India
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Indo-European 3% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Fayette

• 2024 margin: D (+18.1) · D 58.0% · R 39.9% · Other 2.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: +13.3pp toward D · 2008: 4.8pp · 2024: 18.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+18.1 2020: D+20.8 2016: D+9.5 2012: D+1.0 2008: D+4.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -280.10%
• Current HPI: 241.5612
• Rent YoY: ▲ 4.40%
• Metro: Lexington-Fayette, KY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.81%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in KY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Healthcare	1	$118B
▸Food / Beverage	1	$7B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — ImagineMLS
• 2026-05-19 Listed $165,000 ImagineMLS

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2015): $1,154 · +0.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.