154 Cedar Rd E · Mastic Beach, NY 11951

$435,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,440 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 32 Days on market

Built 1950 10,019 sqft lot Est $481k · 10% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.4/30.0
• ARV discount +11.8/15.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +4.7/10.0
• Schools +4.7/10.0
• 1% rule +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks

Come see this charming single-family home nestled in the heart of Mastic Beach. With natural light fills the interior, enhancing the warmth and functionality of the home. The kitchen offers ample cabinetry and workspace, while the bedrooms provide a peaceful retreat. Situated on a spacious lot, the outdoor area presents plenty of potential—perfect for gatherings, gardening, or future expansion. With private parking and a desirable location near local beaches, parks, and major roadways, convenience meets coastal living. Whether you're looking for a starter home, a seasonal getaway, or an investment opportunity, this property offers great potential in a growing Long Island community.

Key facts

• Ample cabinetry
• Desirable location
• Natural light

Tags

• SINGLE-FAMILY HOME
• NATURAL LIGHT
• AMPLE CABINETRY
• SPACIOUS LOT
• PRIVATE PARKING
• DESIRABLE LOCATION

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Driveway; Off-street parking; On-street parking; Attached garage with 1 space
• Utilities: Electric service by PSEG; Cesspool sewer; Cable available; Electricity available and connected; Public trash collection; Water available and connected
• Home design: Single family residence
• Construction: Built with advanced framing techniques; Block foundation
• Exterior features: Back yard; Front yard; Landscaped grounds; Level lot; Near public transit; Fenced yard (vinyl and wood); Gazebo; Not waterfront

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Electric range; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Includes a bedroom on the first floor
• Flooring: Vinyl flooring
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Hot water heating; Baseboard heating; Oil heating; No central cooling
• Interior features: First-floor bedroom; First-floor full bathroom; Beamed ceilings; Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; High ceilings; Natural woodwork; Washer/dryer hookup; Full basement
• Laundry & utility: Laundry located in basement; Washer/dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $435k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $171 ($2k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $385k (11.5% below list).
• Recommended offer: $385k (11.5% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.8% vs local median 4.7% in Mastic Beach — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 61/100 on livability (#936 in NY) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+; Watch: crime D, amenities F, commute F.
• William Floyd Union Free School District (suburban): math 48% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #309 of 590 in NY (top 52%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Tangier Smith Elementary School (math 43% / reading 54%, grade D, #1,181 of 2,108 statewide, top 56%, 755 students, 61% FRL); William Paca Middle School (math 31% / reading 37%, grade F, #497 of 729 statewide, top 69%, 1,009 students, 59% FRL); William Floyd High School (math 65% / reading 87%, grade A-, #616 of 1,100 statewide, top 57%, 3,013 students, 54% FRL) — zoned schools average 58% FRL vs 43% district-wide (15 pts higher); higher-poverty schools than district average — tighter screening recommended.
• Market conditions: 133 active listings in the ZIP; 5 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 2d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,366 units permitted in Suffolk County in 2024 (216 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $47k of equity ($3k loan paydown + $44k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Suffolk County population projected to shrink 5% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $122k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 2, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$75k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 32 days — a 3% lower offer ($422k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $98k; list at $435k implies a 344% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1950 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.
• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 80% chance of damaging wind over 30y — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $385,063 (11.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 32 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 11% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Built in 1950 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.89% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.76%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.68%
• DSCR: 1.07
• GRM: 9.4

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $480,960
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
123 Jefferson Dr	0.21mi	3/2.0	1,461 (+2%)	9mo	$260,000	$178	77
189 Beaver Dr	0.31mi	4/1.5 (+1)	1,470 (+2%)	3mo	$560,000	$381	73
6 Victoria Pl	0.40mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,470 (+2%)	4mo	$470,000	$320	66
155 Dahlia Dr	0.42mi	3/2.0	1,360 (-6%)	4mo	$399,000	$293	64
5 Baker Rd	0.70mi	3/1.5	1,428 (-1%)	3mo	$540,000	$378	61
38 Barclay Rd	0.45mi	2/1.0 (-1)	1,370 (-5%)	6mo	$450,000	$328	61
11 Edwards Rd	0.49mi	3/1.0	1,310 (-9%)	5mo	$465,000	$355	58
184 Bayview Dr	0.52mi	3/2.0	1,302 (-10%)	5mo	$280,000	$215	52
268 Beaver Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,500 (+4%)	7mo	$490,000	$327	51
407 Floyd Rd S	0.55mi	3/2.5	1,540 (+7%)	7mo	$535,000	$347	51
118 Cranberry Dr	0.61mi	3/2.0	1,350 (-6%)	8mo	$451,000	$334	51
49 Barclay Rd	0.51mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,591 (+10%)	1mo	$630,000	$396	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 25.5%
• Equity multiple: 3.03×
• Total profit: $247,752
• Equity at exit: $391,882

10-year hold

• IRR: 22.4%
• Equity multiple: 6.92×
• Total profit: $720,996
• Equity at exit: $845,109

Cash invested: $121,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 11951

• Home prices YoY: 4.3%
• Active inventory: 133
• Price-to-rent: 9.4×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,851 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,281
• Tax from tax record: −$409 /mo · $4,908/yr
• Insurance: −$181
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$809
• Net cashflow: $171

Break-even live

Break-even rent $3,635

Max offer price $435,000

Occupancy floor 91%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $108,750
• Closing costs: $13,050
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 5 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
192 Cypress Dr Mastic Beach, NY	4.0	2.0	1404	$3,800	$2.71	44d	1	0.51mi
149 Washington Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	1.0	1152	$3,400	$2.95	1d	1	0.64mi
165 Lynbrook Dr Mastic Beach, NY	3.0	2.0	1520	$4,000	$2.63	1d	1	0.83mi
126 Flower Rd Shirley, NY	4.0	1.0	1756	$4,100	$2.33	1d	1	1.03mi
6 Fairview Dr Shirley, NY	4.0	2.0	1302	$4,299	$3.30	3d	1	1.39mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-04-21
   status Pending
2. 2026-03-19
   listed $435,000 Active
3. 1994-06-20
   soldstatus $98,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $4,908 · $409/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,130 · $511/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,222/yr (+$102/mo · 24.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 4/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 19 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 8/10 Severe 80% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 3 unhealthy d/yr today · 5 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $46,208
• − Mortgage interest: −$24,367
• − Property taxes: −$4,908
• − Insurance: −$2,175
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,697
• − Management: −$3,697
• − Depreciation: −$12,655
• Taxable loss: −$5,290
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,270
• After-tax cash flow: $3,316/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: William Floyd Union Free School District
• NCES district ID: 3618690
• Math proficiency: 48% ▲ 3.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 11.00%
• Median HH income: $70,564
• Composite: 46.79/100
• National rank: #2383
• State rank: #309 of 590 in NY

Livability — Mastic Beach

• Score: 61/100
• State rank: #936
• US rank: #18216

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living F Crime D Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings C

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Mastic Beach, NY
• City population: 15,830
• Population (ZIP): 15,830

Population outlook (Suffolk County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,505,262 people
• By 2030: 1,498,318 · -0.5%
• By 2040: 1,471,101 · -2.3%
• By 2050: 1,424,848 · -5.3%
• By 2075: 1,337,157 · -11.2%
• By 2100: 1,217,720 · -19.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (68%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 68% Hispanic / Latino 17% Two or more races 9% Black 6% Asian 2%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 1% Puerto Rican 6% Cuban 2%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Spanish 10% Other Indo-European 3% Chinese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Suffolk

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+10.0) · D 45.0% · R 55.0%
• 2008→2024 swing: -16.0pp toward R · 2008: 6.0pp · 2024: -10.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+10.0 2020: R+0.0 2016: R+8.2 2012: D+2.9 2008: D+6.0

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 34.46%
• Current HPI: 829.86
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+343.9% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-21 Pending — OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2026-03-19 Listed $435,000 OneKey® MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-06-20 Sold (Public Records) $98,000 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,908 · +0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.