8562 Fernwood Loop N · Semmes, AL 36575

$320,000

4 bd · 3.0 ba · 2,622 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 168 Days on market

Built 2015 0.31 ac lot Est $375k · 15% under ↓ 2% since listing

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.1/30.0
• ARV discount +14.1/15.0
• DSCR +4.6/10.0
• 1% rule +3.1/10.0
• Livability +3.0/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautiful USDA 4BR/3BA home with an open floor plan, trey ceilings in the Great Room & Primary Suite, and a spacious kitchen featuring stainless steel appliances, all-wood cabinetry, pantry, and hop-up bar overlooking the living area. The Primary Suite offers dual walk-in closets, double vanities, a garden tub, and separate shower. Cozy wood-burning fireplace with gas starter in the Great Room. Enjoy a large covered back porch overlooking tranquil, dedicated treelined green space-perfect for relaxing without the upkeep of a large yard. Low-maintenance backyard + seller offering concession toward privacy fence or custom outdoor solution with acceptable offer. Buyer to verify all measur

Key facts

• Pantry
• Open floor plan
• Recessed lighting

Tags

• OPEN FLOOR PLAN
• LARGE COVERED REAR PORCH
• RECESSED LIGHTING
• PANTRY
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• ALL WOOD CABINETS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/3.0-bath single-family listed at $320k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $104 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $260k (18.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $260k (18.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.7% vs local median 5.3% in Semmes — meaningfully above typical; check what's discounted (condition, days-on-market, listing class) to confirm the premium yield is real.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 60/100 on livability (#311 in AL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F, amenities F, commute F.
• Mobile County (urban): math 15% / reading 39% proficiency, ranked #81 of 129 in AL (top 63%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover; 67% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Zoned schools: Allentown Elementary School (math 31% / reading 59%, grade D-, #169 of 627 statewide, top 27%, 776 students, 53% FRL); Semmes Middle School (math 8% / reading 35%, grade F, #185 of 257 statewide, top 73%, 1,318 students, 68% FRL); Mary G Montgomery High School (math 13% / reading 18%, grade F, #211 of 305 statewide, top 69%, 1,965 students, 53% FRL).
• Market conditions: 185 active listings in the ZIP; 1 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; 1,678 units permitted in Mobile County in 2024 (264 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $10k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Mobile County population projected to shrink 8% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 168 days — a 12% lower offer ($282k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $259,500 (18.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 168 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 19% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
5. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.81% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.68%
• Cash-on-cash: 1.39%
• DSCR: 1.06
• GRM: 10.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $374,946
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
8562 Fernwood Loop N	0.00mi	4/3.0	2,622 (0%)	1mo	$320,000	$122	99
2268 Edison Dr	0.11mi	4/3.0	2,348 (-10%)	4mo	$315,000	$134	74
2345 Laurel St	0.39mi	4/3.5	2,495 (-5%)	10mo	$355,000	$142	64
2288 PHILSDALE Ln	0.35mi	4/2.5	2,324 (-11%)	0mo	$320,000	$138	62
2610 Crary Ave W	0.44mi	4/3.0	2,486 (-5%)	14mo	$349,000	$140	59
2358 Laurel St	0.43mi	4/3.0	2,374 (-10%)	7mo	$374,000	$158	59
2121 W MEADOWVIEW Loop	0.49mi	4/3.0	2,486 (-5%)	14mo	$364,900	$147	57
8275 Philsdale Ln S	0.40mi	5/3.0 (+1)	2,939 (+12%)	5mo	$402,000	$137	52
9078 Howells Ferry Rd	0.75mi	4/3.0	2,732 (+4%)	9mo	$450,000	$165	51
8310 Philsdale Ln S	0.38mi	4/2.5	2,306 (-12%)	14mo	$350,975	$152	48
8800 Floyd Crabtree Way	0.60mi	4/2.5	2,393 (-9%)	10mo	$345,000	$144	47
2575 Oak Grove Dr	0.58mi	4/2.5	2,308 (-12%)	9mo	$330,000	$143	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -14.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.49×
• Total profit: $-45,378
• Equity at exit: $47,713

10-year hold

• IRR: -5.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.65×
• Total profit: $-31,519
• Equity at exit: $27,668

Cash invested: $89,600 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Alabama: 90 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+15
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Right-to-evict in 7 days for non-payment; no rent control; preempted statewide; courts move quickly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 36575

• Home prices YoY: -21.8%
• Active inventory: 185
• Price-to-rent: 10.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,595 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,678
• Tax from tax record: −$135 /mo · $1,620/yr
• Insurance: −$133
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$545
• Net cashflow: $104

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,464

Max offer price $320,000

Occupancy floor 91%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $285	-5% $194	+0% $104	+5% $13	+10% $-78
Rent	-10% $-101	-5% $1	+0% $104	+5% $206	+10% $309
Rate	-1.0pp $265	-0.5pp $185	base $104	+0.5pp $21	+1.0pp $-64

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $80,000
• Closing costs: $9,600
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 1 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2376 Marigold Loop E Semmes, AL	4.0	3.0	3000	$2,595	$0.86	23d	1	0.47mi

Listing history 4 events

1. 2026-04-27
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-01
   price $320,000
3. 2025-11-10
   listed $330,000 Active
4. 2023-08-10
   price $327,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,620 · $135/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥106°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $31,140
• − Mortgage interest: −$17,925
• − Property taxes: −$1,620
• − Insurance: −$1,600
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,491
• − Management: −$2,491
• − Depreciation: −$9,309
• Taxable loss: −$4,296
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,031
• After-tax cash flow: $2,275/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mobile County
• NCES district ID: 0102370
• Math proficiency: 15% ▼ -28.00%
• Reading proficiency: 39% ▬ 0.00%
• Median HH income: $42,455
• Composite: 22.9/100
• National rank: #8002
• State rank: #81 of 129 in AL

Livability — Semmes

• Score: 60/100
• State rank: #311
• US rank: #19360

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 22,444

Population outlook (Mobile County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 415,303 people
• By 2030: 411,755 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 399,670 · -3.8%
• By 2050: 382,616 · -7.9%
• By 2075: 337,353 · -18.8%
• By 2100: 283,391 · -31.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (73%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 73% Black 19% Hispanic / Latino 5% Two or more races 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Slovak 2% Serbian 2%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 97% English-only · Spanish 2% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Mobile

• 2024 margin: R (+16.4) · D 41.3% · R 57.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.7pp toward R · 2008: -8.7pp · 2024: -16.4pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+16.4 2020: R+11.9 2016: R+13.9 2012: R+9.3 2008: R+8.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -60.58%
• Current HPI: 217.5112
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.94%
• F500 in state: 4

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	1	$8B
▸Healthcare	1	$5B

Price history

-2.1% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Pending — GCMLS AL
• 2026-04-01 Price Changed $320,000 GCMLS AL
• 2025-11-10 Listed $330,000 GCMLS AL
• 2023-08-10 Price Changed $327,000 GCMLS AL

Property tax history

+18.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,620 · +4.3% YoY. Source: county tax records.