37816 W Amalfi Ave · Maricopa, AZ 85138

$294,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,555 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 55 Days on market

Built 2019 5,401 sqft lot $190/sqft · 14% below area Est $345k · 14% under $28/mo HOA · 1% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.0/15.0
• Cash flow +7.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• Livability +3.6/5.0
• Rent growth +2.9/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Schools +2.3/10.0
• DSCR +1.7/10.0
• 1% rule +1.4/10.0

Listing remarks

Fall in love with this stunning 3-bedroom, 2-bathroom gem where modern style meets everyday comfort. Step into the heart of the home--a chef-inspired kitchen boasting elegant granite countertops and sleek stainless-steel appliances. The smart, open layout features tile in all the right places, ensuring easy maintenance and a cool, crisp feel throughout. From vibrant dinner parties to cozy movie nights, this move-in-ready home provides the perfect backdrop for your best memories.

Key facts

• 5,401 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2019

Property features AI

Finance

• Financial info: Current financing: FHA
• HOA & community: Has association; Association fee approximately $84.50 quarterly; Association covers grounds maintenance

Exterior

• Parking: 2 covered parking spaces; 2 open parking spaces; 2-car garage
• Utilities: City water; Public sewer; 220 volts available in kitchen (electric)
• Home design: Single family residence; Fee simple ownership; Asphalt road access
• Construction: Stucco and painted wood frame construction
• Exterior features: Block fencing; Dirt in back yard; Gravel/stone in front yard; Tile roof

Interior

• Kitchen: 220 volts in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 3 possible bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet; Tile
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Ceiling heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Full bathroom in master bedroom; ENERGY STAR qualified windows
• Laundry & utility: Gas dryer hookup; Washer/dryer hookup only

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $295k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-353 ($-4k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $232k (21.2% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $190k (35.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $190k (35.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.9% vs local median 3.7% in Maricopa — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 72/100 on livability (#28 in AZ) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: housing A+, employment A-, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Maricopa Unified School District (4441) (town): math 20% / reading 29% proficiency, ranked #128 of 249 in AZ (top 51%) — low school quality limits family demand, transient renter base, plan for 1-2y turnover.
• Zoned schools: Santa Cruz Elementary School (math 27% / reading 34%, grade F, #536 of 1,109 statewide, top 49%, 764 students, 59% FRL); Desert Wind Middle School (math 14% / reading 26%, grade F, #127 of 218 statewide, top 60%, 817 students, 52% FRL); Desert Sunrise High School (615 students, 45% FRL).
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+1.8%/yr); 862 active listings in the ZIP; 40 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 17d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 9,504 units permitted in Pinal County in 2024 (776 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.9%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 55 days — a 3% lower offer ($286k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→18/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $189,987 (35.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. It's been on market 55 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 36% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.64% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.85%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.14%
• DSCR: 0.77
• GRM: 12.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $344,556
• List price: $294,900
• Delta: -14.41%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
38031 W San Alvarez Ave	0.17mi	3/2.0	1,573 (+1%)	1mo	$309,000	$196	89
37635 W Capri Ave	0.18mi	3/2.0	1,525 (-2%)	1mo	$295,000	$193	88
38149 W Isabella Ln	0.34mi	3/2.0	1,542 (-1%)	2mo	$299,000	$194	81
38135 W Cannataro Ln	0.28mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,572 (+1%)	1mo	$312,000	$198	79
17530 N Salerno Dr	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	1mo	$354,990	$199	51
38205 W Frascati Ave	0.39mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	2mo	$354,990	$199	50
37064 W Mondragone Ln	0.56mi	3/2.0	1,766 (+14%)	2mo	$298,995	$169	50
38220 W Frascati Ave	0.37mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	4mo	$354,990	$199	50
38190 W Frascati Ave	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	4mo	$355,000	$199	50
38170 W Frascati Ave	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	6mo	$315,990	$177	49
38165 W Frascati Ave	0.38mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,787 (+15%)	6mo	$349,990	$196	48
36796 W Mondragone Ln	0.70mi	3/2.0	1,381 (-11%)	2mo	$260,000	$188	47

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.89% appreciation · 1.78% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -12.9%
• Equity multiple: 0.45×
• Total profit: $-45,604
• Equity at exit: $72,778

10-year hold

• IRR: -7.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-52,689
• Equity at exit: $77,788

Cash invested: $82,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Arizona: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

5-day pay-or-quit; AZ courts known for speed; no state rent control; cities preempted by state law.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 85138

• Home prices YoY: -0.3%
• Rents YoY: 1.8%
• Active inventory: 862
• Price-to-rent: 12.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,900 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,546
• Tax from tax record: −$157 /mo · $1,883/yr
• Insurance: −$123
• HOA: −$28
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$399
• Net cashflow: $-353

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,347

Max offer price $232,471

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-186	-5% $-270	+0% $-353	+5% $-437	+10% $-520
Rent	-10% $-503	-5% $-428	+0% $-353	+5% $-278	+10% $-203
Rate	-1.0pp $-205	-0.5pp $-278	base $-353	+0.5pp $-430	+1.0pp $-508

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $73,725
• Closing costs: $8,847
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 40 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
17878 N Pietra Rd Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1555	$1,625	$1.05	45d	1	0.07mi
37995 W San Ildefanso Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1711	$1,890	$1.10	0d	1	0.20mi
38128 W San Sisto Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1593	$1,995	$1.25	45d	1	0.20mi
17936 N Lettere Cir Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2012	$1,800	$0.89	7d	1	0.24mi
38060 W Frascati Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1790	$1,995	$1.11	45d	1	0.31mi
37392 W Capri Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,695	$0.96	16d	1	0.32mi
37392 W Capri Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1764	$1,695	$0.96	18d	1	0.32mi
38165 W Excussare Way Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1572	$1,995	$1.27	7d	1	0.32mi
38105 W Isabella Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1795	$1,711	$0.95	0d	1	0.32mi
37154 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.5	2223	$1,695	$0.76	26d	1	0.42mi
37144 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,669	$1.10	0d	1	0.43mi
37144 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,839	$1.21	25d	1	0.43mi
38248 W Santa Clara Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$2,150	$1.26	26d	1	0.44mi
37088 W Amalfi Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1516	$1,735	$1.14	45d	1	0.47mi
37128 W Mondragone Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,450	$1.03	45d	1	0.55mi
37078 W Mondragone Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1409	$1,600	$1.14	0d	1	0.56mi
36837 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,695	$1.33	45d	1	0.72mi
36837 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1278	$1,595	$1.25	0d	1	0.72mi
36822 W Maddaloni Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1825	$1,775	$0.97	3d	1	0.74mi
36990 W Nola Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1769	$1,639	$0.93	12d	1	0.76mi
36605 W Mondragone Ln Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1170	$1,595	$1.36	12d	1	0.82mi
36502 W San Ildefanso Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.5	2104	$2,400	$1.14	0d	1	0.89mi
36419 W San Ildefanso Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1849	$1,795	$0.97	16d	1	0.93mi
36355 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,050	$1.45	3d	1	0.99mi
36355 W Mediterranean Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1411	$2,050	$1.45	0d	1	0.99mi
37014 W Prado St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,700	$1.08	18d	1	1.00mi
18853 N Vemto St Maricopa, AZ	4.0	3.0	2233	$1,895	$0.85	26d	1	1.01mi
37043 W Vera Cruz Dr Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1832	$2,300	$1.26	0d	1	1.01mi
36972 W Prado St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1568	$1,700	$1.08	18d	1	1.02mi
17589 N Del Mar Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1177	$1,895	$1.61	46d	1	1.02mi
36085 W San Sisto Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1605	$2,500	$1.56	0d	1	1.10mi
36043 W Santa Clara Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1700	$1,895	$1.11	3d	1	1.16mi
19270 N Costa Verdez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,645	$1.35	0d	1	1.17mi
19270 N Costa Verdez Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1220	$1,610	$1.32	45d	1	1.17mi
35963 W San Alvarez Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1922	$1,995	$1.04	26d	1	1.18mi
36033 W San Clemente Ave Maricopa, AZ	4.0	2.0	1775	$1,700	$0.96	45d	1	1.22mi
36635 W Honeycutt Rd Maricopa, AZ	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	972	$2,259	$2.32	0d	83	1.27mi
18392 N Los Gabrieles Way Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,785	$1.07	6d	1	1.38mi
39696 W Lococo St Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1130	$1,604	$1.42	45d	1	1.39mi
35579 W San Capistrano Ave Maricopa, AZ	3.0	2.0	1662	$1,650	$0.99	7d	1	1.43mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $28 · $336/yr

Listing history 19 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $294,900 Active 55 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $294,900 Active 52 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $294,900 Active 51 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $294,900 Active 50 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $294,900 Active 49 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 47 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $294,900 Active 46 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $294,900 Active 43 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $294,900 Active 42 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $294,900 Active 41 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $294,900 Active 38 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $294,900 Active 37 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $294,900 Active 36 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $294,900 Active 35 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $294,900 Active 34 DOM
16. 2026-04-27
    listed $294,900 Active 483-char remark
17. 2017-10-17
    soldstatus $6,365,000
18. 2012-10-03
    soldstatus $11,950,000
19. 2006-07-05
    soldstatus $1,700,270

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast AZ · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $1,883 · $157/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,946 · $162/mo
• Expected delta: +$63/yr (+$5/mo · 3.4%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (shaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥114°F today · 18 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,798
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,519
• − Property taxes: −$1,883
• − Insurance: −$1,474
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,824
• − Management: −$1,824
• − HOA: −$336
• − Depreciation: −$8,579
• Taxable loss: −$9,641
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,314
• After-tax cash flow: $-1,927/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Maricopa Unified School District (4441)
• NCES district ID: 0404720
• Math proficiency: 20% ▼ -18.00%
• Reading proficiency: 29% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $63,725
• Composite: 22.92/100
• National rank: #7993
• State rank: #128 of 249 in AZ

Livability — Maricopa

• Score: 72/100
• State rank: #28
• US rank: #5943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A- Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Maricopa, AZ
• County: Pinal County · 399,947 people
• City population: 76,044
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• Population (ZIP): 55,260
• Household income: $95,867
• Rent vs Own: 17.7% rent · 82.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 432.0

Population outlook (Pinal County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 437,574 people
• By 2030: 446,903 · +2.1%
• By 2040: 452,589 · +3.4%
• By 2050: 444,126 · +1.5%
• By 2075: 430,300 · -1.7%
• By 2100: 393,536 · -10.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.69)
• Race & ethnicity: White 45% Hispanic / Latino 30% Two or more races 17% Black 13% Native American 3% Asian 3% Pacific Islander 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 26% Puerto Rican 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Romanian 2% Italian 2%
• Foreign-born: 10% · Canada
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 16% Other Asian/Pacific 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Pinal

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+22.1) · D 38.5% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -7.6pp toward R · 2008: -14.5pp · 2024: -22.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+22.1 2020: R+17.3 2016: R+19.3 2012: R+17.1 2008: R+14.5

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.89%
• Current HPI: 258.1461
• Rent YoY: ▲ 1.78%
• Metro: Phoenix-Mesa-Chandler, AZ
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 4.54%
• F500 in state: 20

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in AZ)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Technology	2	$13B
▸Mining / Metals	1	$23B
▸Environmental Services	1	$16B
▸Metals / Steel	1	$14B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$9B
▸Homebuilding	1	$8B

Price history

-82.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-27 Listed $294,900 ARMLS
• 2017-10-17 Sold (Public Records) $6,365,000 Public Records
• 2012-10-03 Sold (Public Records) $11,950,000 Public Records
• 2006-07-05 Sold (Public Records) $1,700,270 Public Records

Property tax history

+22.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,883 · +3.6% YoY. Source: county tax records.