1409 Erie St · Utica, NY 13502

$105,000

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,114 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 18 Days on market

Built 1890 1,727 sqft lot Est $121k · 14% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the B+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +13.6/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

* * Step Into Charm and Serenity in This Beautifully Refreshed Home! * * Immerse yourself in the inviting ambiance of this lovingly updated single-family retreat. A contemporary palette and new flooring flow effortlessly through each room, with sunlight streaming through energy-efficient vinyl windows to create a bright, uplifting atmosphere. The updated kitchen shines with crisp white cabinets, adding a touch of modern elegance and functionality. Start your mornings or unwind in the cozy enclosed porch—your perfect nook for coffee, reading, or quiet reflection. Upstairs, discover a versatile walk-through room, ideal as an extra bedroom or private home office. With first-floor washer and dryer hookups, a 100-amp circuit breaker, a reliable Utica boiler, and a private driveway, this home blends thoughtful details with classic charm, making it ready to welcome you!

Key facts

• Off street parking
• Updated interior
• Enclosed porch

Tags

• UPDATED INTERIOR
• ENCLOSED PORCH
• CLASSIC CLAW FOOT TUB
• NEW INSULATION
• OFF STREET PARKING

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected (circuit breakers); Public water connected; Sewer connected
• Home design: 2-story house; Resale property; City street frontage; Rectangular residential lot; Near public transit
• Construction: Spray foam insulation; Vinyl siding; Copper plumbing; Asphalt roof; Rolled/Hot Mop roofing; Block and stone foundation; Built as existing structure
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Enclosed porch; Open porch; Partial fencing; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Gas oven; Gas range; Range hood; Exhaust fan; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: One bedroom on the main level; Two additional bedrooms on the second level; One bedroom on the first level
• Flooring: Laminate flooring; Varies
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Heating present; Electric heating; Gas heating; Radiator heating; Steam heating
• Interior features: Thermal windows; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Bedroom on main level; Partial basement
• Laundry & utility: Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath single-family listed at $105k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $824 ($10k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $105k).
• Recommended offer: $103k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 15.7% vs local median 7.7% in Utica — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 80/100 on livability (#104 in NY, #1,589 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: commute A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: employment D, schools D-, crime F.
• Utica City School District (urban): math 33% / reading 38% proficiency, ranked #562 of 590 in NY (top 95%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 71% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 150 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals lingering (median 45d on market — plan ~5-8 weeks vacancy on turnover, expect pricing pressure); 100% of comp listings sitting > 30 days — soft ceiling on asking rent; 204 units permitted in Oneida County in 2024 (68 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($58k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $726 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Oneida County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $29k cash investment doubles in ~4 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 18 days — a 2% lower offer ($103k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 11y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $90k; 17% above their basis — modest negotiation headroom, anchor on the comps not their cost.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: built in 1890 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $103,425 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1890 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.79% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.71%
• Cash-on-cash: 33.62%
• DSCR: 2.50
• GRM: 4.6

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $121,426
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1409 Erie St	0.00mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,114 (0%)	9mo	$90,000	$81	88
6 Bryant St	0.21mi	2/2.0 (-1)	1,084 (-3%)	1mo	$104,680	$97	78
1007 Warren St	0.49mi	3/1.5	1,133 (+2%)	8mo	$45,000	$40	67
11 Bryant St	0.19mi	2/1.0 (-1)	999 (-10%)	6mo	$109,000	$109	61
2133 Mcbride Ave	0.60mi	3/1.0	1,200 (+8%)	8mo	$154,500	$129	51
1216 Oak St	0.71mi	3/1.0	1,196 (+7%)	3mo	$69,000	$58	50
2206 Caroline St	0.74mi	4/1.0 (+1)	1,155 (+4%)	7mo	$212,000	$184	46
1209 Ney Ave	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,250 (+12%)	1mo	$162,500	$130	42
913 Champlin Ave	0.74mi	3/1.5	1,252 (+12%)	7mo	$135,000	$108	39
1310 Oak St	0.70mi	3/1.0	1,254 (+13%)	7mo	$160,000	$128	38
1308 Maple St	0.65mi	3/2.0	1,275 (+14%)	10mo	$205,000	$161	36
1212 Oak St	0.72mi	2/1.0 (-1)	973 (-13%)	6mo	$26,000	$27	33

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 28.9%
• Equity multiple: 2.21×
• Total profit: $35,443
• Equity at exit: $15,656

10-year hold

• IRR: 36.3%
• Equity multiple: 4.35×
• Total profit: $98,382
• Equity at exit: $9,078

Cash invested: $29,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13502

• Home prices YoY: -12.1%
• Active inventory: 150
• Price-to-rent: 4.6×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,882 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$551
• Tax from tax record: −$69 /mo · $825/yr
• Insurance: −$44
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$395
• Net cashflow: $824

Break-even live

Break-even rent $839

Max offer price $105,000

Occupancy floor 51%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $883	-5% $854	+0% $824	+5% $794	+10% $764
Rent	-10% $675	-5% $749	+0% $824	+5% $898	+10% $972
Rate	-1.0pp $877	-0.5pp $850	base $824	+0.5pp $797	+1.0pp $769

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $26,250
• Closing costs: $3,150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1224 Whitesboro St Unit 1 Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1100	$1,125	$1.02	45d	1	0.13mi
11 Noyes St Unit 4 Utica, NY	2.0	1.0	1000	$1,125	$1.12	45d	1	0.97mi
4 1st St Yorkville, NY	3.0	1.0	888	$2,100	$2.36	45d	1	1.10mi
239 Genesee St Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1200	$2,700	$2.25	45d	15	1.12mi
119 Hotel St Utica, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1053	$2,300	$2.18	45d	14	1.27mi
221 Elizabeth St #2 Utica, NY	2.0	1.0	1100	$2,000	$1.82	45d	1	1.30mi
1503 Fox Pl Utica, NY	3.0	1.0	1119	$2,000	$1.79	45d	1	1.36mi
9646 River Rd Marcy, NY	2.0	1.0	768	$1,600	$2.08	45d	1	1.49mi

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-19
   days on market $105,000 Active 18 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $105,000 Active 17 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $105,000 Active 16 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $105,000 Active 15 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $105,000 Active 14 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $105,000 Active 12 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $105,000 Active 11 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $105,000 Active 9 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $105,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $105,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $105,000 Active 6 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $105,000 Active 2 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    remarks 687-char remark
14. 2026-06-01
    listed $105,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $825 · $69/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,300 · $108/mo
• Expected delta: +$475/yr (+$40/mo · 57.5%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $22,586
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,882
• − Property taxes: −$825
• − Insurance: −$525
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,807
• − Management: −$1,807
• − Depreciation: −$3,055
• Taxable income: $8,686
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,085
• After-tax cash flow: $7,801/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Utica City School District
• NCES district ID: 3629370
• Math proficiency: 33% ▼ -7.00%
• Reading proficiency: 38% ▲ 2.00%
• Median HH income: $31,834
• Composite: 29.01/100
• National rank: #6613
• State rank: #562 of 590 in NY

Livability — Utica

• Score: 80/100
• State rank: #104
• US rank: #1589

Category grades

Amenities A Commute A+ Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment D Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings C-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Utica, NY
• County: Oneida County · 89,710 people
• City population: 72,968
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• Population (ZIP): 34,037
• Household income: $57,835
• Rent vs Own: 40.8% rent · 59.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 1604.0

Population outlook (Oneida County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 225,223 people
• By 2030: 220,384 · -2.1%
• By 2040: 209,071 · -7.2%
• By 2050: 197,920 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 175,541 · -22.1%
• By 2100: 148,491 · -34.1%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (71%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 71% Hispanic / Latino 11% Black 9% Two or more races 7% Asian 5%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5% Dominican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Lithuanian 3% American 2%
• Foreign-born: 12% · Canada, Philippines, China
• Languages at home: 81% English-only · Spanish 7% Russian/Polish/Slavic 4% Other Asian/Pacific 3%

Political lean MEDSL · Oneida

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+21.3) · D 39.4% · R 60.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.2pp toward R · 2008: -6.1pp · 2024: -21.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+21.3 2020: R+15.5 2016: R+21.1 2012: R+5.3 2008: R+6.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -50.76%
• Current HPI: 368.3955
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Utica-Rome, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+356.5% since first listed

9 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-01 Listed $105,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-29 Sold (MLS) $90,000 CNYIS
• 2025-09-04 Sold (Public Records) $90,000 Public Records
• 2025-05-15 Pending — CNYIS
• 2025-01-30 Listed $95,000 CNYIS
• 2025-01-22 Listing Removed — CNYIS
• 2024-11-15 Listed $115,000 CNYIS
• 2016-02-17 Sold (MLS) $18,500 CNYIS
• 2015-04-01 Listed $22,999 CNYIS

Property tax history

-0.3%/yr

Latest (2025): $825 · -33.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.