2 Carefree Ln · Saratoga Springs, NY 12831

$549,900

5 bd · 2.5 ba · 2,016 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 21 Days on market

Built 1972 0.48 ac lot $273/sqft · at area comps Est $658k · 16% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the D- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +14.9/15.0
• Cash flow +7.3/30.0
• Schools +6.1/10.0
• Livability +4.1/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• DSCR +1.4/10.0
• 1% rule +1.2/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Sold before Print

Key facts

• New subflooring
• Finished lower level
• 0.48 acre lot

Tags

• BRAND NEW ROOF WITH WARRANTY
• NEW SUBFLOORING
• COMPLETELY RENOVATED KITCHEN
• FINISHED LOWER LEVEL

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (2 spaces); Driveway parking — total 6 parking spaces
• Utilities: Septic tank
• Home design: Single family residence; Living area approximately 2,460
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Shingle/asphalt roof
• Exterior features: Deck; Driveway paved

Interior

• Kitchen: Range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Primary bedroom on second level; Additional bedrooms on first and second levels
• Flooring: Tile; Vinyl; Hardwood
• Bathrooms: Three full bathrooms (one on first level, two on second level)
• Heating & cooling: Forced air heating (natural gas); Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Built-in features; Ceramic tile bath; Basement (other); Two fireplaces
• Laundry & utility: Main-level laundry room; Washer and dryer included

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 5-bed/2.5-bath single-family listed at $550k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-742 ($-9k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $419k (23.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $340k (38.2% below list).
• Recommended offer: $340k (38.2% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 4.7% vs local median 2.0% in Saratoga Springs — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 82/100 on livability (#83 in NY, #1,284 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, health & safety A; Watch: amenities D+, cost of living F.
• Saratoga Springs City SD (suburban): math 67% / reading 72% proficiency, ranked #138 of 590 in NY (top 23%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease; only 15% free/reduced lunch — higher-income household profile.
• Zoned schools: Dorothy Nolan Elementary School (math 69% / reading 68%, grade B+, #517 of 2,108 statewide, top 25%, 688 students, 22% FRL); Maple Avenue Middle School (math 46% / reading 69%, grade B, #187 of 729 statewide, top 26%, 1,392 students, 27% FRL); Saratoga Springs High School (math 98% / reading 92%, grade A+, #83 of 1,100 statewide, top 8%, 1,947 students, 26% FRL).
• Market conditions: 115 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 1,132 units permitted in Saratoga County in 2024 (378 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 41% of the median local income ($100k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $4k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $16k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Saratoga County population projected at +4% by 2050 — modest demand growth; plan on rents tracking national, not racing it.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 21 days — a 2% lower offer ($542k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $363k; list at $550k implies a 51% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate flood risk — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $339,782 (38.2% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are A-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.62% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.67%
• Cash-on-cash: -5.78%
• DSCR: 0.74
• GRM: 13.5

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $657,583
• List price: $549,900
• Delta: -16.38%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 11 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
288 Northern Pines Rd	0.09mi	4/2.5 (-1)	1,908 (-5%)	2mo	$447,000	$234	80
50 Fieldstone Dr	0.21mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,000 (-1%)	13mo	$550,000	$275	73
276 Northern Pines Rd	0.17mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,918 (-5%)	9mo	$456,000	$238	70
12 Deer Run	0.35mi	5/3.0	2,183 (+8%)	6mo	$689,900	$316	64
31 Fairway Blvd	0.35mi	5/2.0	2,203 (+9%)	16mo	$475,000	$216	53
9 Rolling Hills Dr	0.63mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,918 (-5%)	9mo	$405,000	$211	48
63 Hearthstone Dr	0.45mi	4/3.5 (-1)	2,292 (+14%)	2mo	$800,000	$349	46
19 Cobble Hill Dr	0.53mi	4/3.0 (-1)	2,259 (+12%)	23mo	$565,000	$250	29
16 Carr Rd	0.69mi	4/2.0 (-1)	1,769 (-12%)	16mo	$386,000	$218	27
9 Greylock Dr	0.67mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,312 (+15%)	16mo	$545,000	$236	26
227 Northern Pines Rd	0.61mi	4/2.5 (-1)	2,316 (+15%)	21mo	$500,000	$216	24

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -26.3%
• Equity multiple: 0.11×
• Total profit: $-136,539
• Equity at exit: $81,992

10-year hold

• IRR: -23.4%
• Equity multiple: -0.17×
• Total profit: $-180,466
• Equity at exit: $47,545

Cash invested: $153,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 12831

• Home prices YoY: -12.8%
• Active inventory: 115
• Price-to-rent: 13.5×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $3,398 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$2,884
• Tax from tax record: −$313 /mo · $3,760/yr
• Insurance: −$229
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$714
• Net cashflow: $-742

Break-even live

Break-even rent $4,337

Max offer price $418,839

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-431	-5% $-586	+0% $-742	+5% $-898	+10% $-1,053
Rent	-10% $-1,010	-5% $-876	+0% $-742	+5% $-608	+10% $-473
Rate	-1.0pp $-465	-0.5pp $-602	base $-742	+0.5pp $-884	+1.0pp $-1,029

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $137,475
• Closing costs: $16,497
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 18 events

1. 2026-06-18
   status $549,900 Pending 21 DOM
2. 2026-06-18
   days on market $549,900 Active 21 DOM
3. 2026-06-17
   days on market $549,900 Active 20 DOM
4. 2026-06-16
   days on market $549,900 Active 19 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   days on market $549,900 Active 18 DOM
6. 2026-06-14
   days on market $549,900 Active 16 DOM
7. 2026-06-13
   days on market $549,900 Active 15 DOM
8. 2026-06-10
   days on market $549,900 Active 13 DOM
9. 2026-06-09
   days on market $549,900 Active 12 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $549,900 Active 11 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $549,900 Active 10 DOM
12. 2026-06-05
    status $549,900 Active 7 DOM
13. 2026-05-14
    status Pending 1275-char remark
14. 2026-05-07
    listed $549,900 Active 1275-char remark
15. 2025-11-24
    soldstatus $363,000 Closed 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    Sold before Print

16. 2025-11-24
    listed $425,000 Active 17-char remark

    Show marketing remark (17 chars)

    Sold before Print

17. 2025-10-29
    soldstatus $363,000
18. 2004-06-03
    soldstatus $210,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,760 · $313/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,527 · $544/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,767/yr (+$231/mo · 73.6%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 5/10 Major 24% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 2/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 3/10 Moderate 7 d/yr ≥97°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 4% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $40,774
• − Mortgage interest: −$30,803
• − Property taxes: −$3,760
• − Insurance: −$2,750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$3,262
• − Management: −$3,262
• − Depreciation: −$15,997
• Taxable loss: −$19,059
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$4,574
• After-tax cash flow: $-4,329/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Saratoga Springs City SD
• NCES district ID: 3625770
• Math proficiency: 67% ▼ -10.00%
• Reading proficiency: 72% ▲ 6.00%
• Median HH income: $69,864
• Composite: 60.83/100
• National rank: #818
• State rank: #138 of 590 in NY

Livability — Saratoga Springs

• Score: 82/100
• State rank: #83
• US rank: #1284

Category grades

Amenities D+ Commute A- Cost of living F Crime B Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety A User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Saratoga County · 166,192 people
• City population: 40,057
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• Population (ZIP): 18,025
• Household income: $100,024
• Rent vs Own: 22.8% rent · 77.2% own
• Severe rent burden: 497.0

Population outlook (Saratoga County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 238,889 people
• By 2030: 243,681 · +2.0%
• By 2040: 249,118 · +4.3%
• By 2050: 248,638 · +4.1%
• By 2075: 241,675 · +1.2%
• By 2100: 213,150 · -10.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (92%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 92% Hispanic / Latino 3% Two or more races 3% Asian 1%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 11% Romanian 4% Iranian 2%
• Foreign-born: 3% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 2% Russian/Polish/Slavic 1% Other Indo-European 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Saratoga

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 50.9% · R 49.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -1.6pp toward R · 2008: 3.4pp · 2024: 1.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+1.8 2020: D+5.4 2016: R+4.4 2012: D+2.1 2008: D+3.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -51.79%
• Current HPI: 351.6972
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Albany-Schenectady-Troy, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+161.9% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-04 Relisted — Global MLS
• 2026-05-14 Pending — Global MLS
• 2026-05-07 Listed $549,900 Global MLS
• 2025-11-24 Listed $425,000 Global MLS
• 2025-11-24 Sold (MLS) $363,000 Global MLS
• 2025-10-29 Sold (Public Records) $363,000 Public Records
• 2004-06-03 Sold (Public Records) $210,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+0.8%/yr

Latest (2025): $3,760 · -1.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.