3420 Belen Ct · Oakleaf Plantation, FL 32068

$299,995

4 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,861 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 2021 Good condition 6,098 sqft lot Est $320k · 6% under $57/mo HOA · 2% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.6/30.0
• ARV discount +10.3/15.0
• Schools +5.1/10.0
• Condition / age +4.0/5.0
• Livability +3.5/5.0
• Rent growth +3.3/5.0
• 1% rule +3.2/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to this beautifully maintained and thoughtfully upgraded home in the desirable Cameron Oaks community of Middleburg! Why wait for new construction when this nearly new gem offers transferable builder warranties and is move-in ready today? Designed for both comfortable living and effortless entertaining, it showcases a spacious open floor plan, a fully fenced backyard, an oversized patio, and raised garden beds. Step inside to a welcoming foyer with a stylish drop station adjacent to two split bedrooms and a full bath. The open-concept kitchen features abundant cabinet and counter space and flows seamlessly into the bright great room and dining area. The inviting primary suite includ

Key facts

• 6,098 sq ft lot
• 2 garage spots
• Built 2021

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 4-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $300k. Condition is rated good.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-150 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $273k (8.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $246k (17.8% below list).
• Recommended offer: $246k (17.8% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 5.7% vs local median 4.0% in Oakleaf Plantation — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 70/100 on livability (#446 in FL) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: employment A+, housing A+, crime B+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Clay (suburban): math 58% / reading 59% proficiency, ranked #14 of 73 in FL (top 19%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+3.4%/yr); 611 active listings in the ZIP; 8 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 6d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); solid renter incomes; 1,876 units permitted in Clay County in 2024 (14 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 35% of the median local income ($84k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $9k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Clay County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Recommended offer $246,486 (17.8% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.82% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.69%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.15%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 10.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $320,092
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
3420 Belen Ct	0.00mi	4/2.0	1,861 (0%)	0mo	$308,000	$166	100
3561 Grayson Ln	0.07mi	4/2.0	1,861 (0%)	4mo	$294,000	$158	94
847 Riley Rd	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,861 (0%)	4mo	$315,000	$169	92
3462 Belen Ct	0.10mi	4/2.0	1,861 (0%)	11mo	$315,000	$169	86
631 Sunny Stroll Dr	0.15mi	4/2.0	1,875 (+1%)	8mo	$290,000	$155	85
615 Sunny Stroll Dr	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,800 (-3%)	3mo	$284,900	$158	82
950 Rooster Hollow Way	0.18mi	4/2.0	1,821 (-2%)	9mo	$378,500	$208	81
3522 Cedar Preserve Ln	0.16mi	4/2.0	1,775 (-5%)	6mo	$363,000	$205	80
3542 Cedar Preserve Ln	0.20mi	4/2.0	1,775 (-5%)	11mo	$373,990	$211	74
724 Sunny Stroll Dr	0.42mi	4/2.0	1,695 (-9%)	1mo	$291,000	$172	65
916 Rooster Hollow Way	0.11mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (-15%)	10mo	$348,000	$219	57
3468 Kindlewood Dr	0.15mi	3/2.0 (-1)	1,590 (-15%)	10mo	$362,000	$228	56

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.35% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -19.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.32×
• Total profit: $-57,262
• Equity at exit: $44,730

10-year hold

• IRR: -11.4%
• Equity multiple: 0.31×
• Total profit: $-58,378
• Equity at exit: $25,938

Cash invested: $83,999 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32068

• Home prices YoY: -27.5%
• Rents YoY: 3.4%
• Active inventory: 611
• Price-to-rent: 10.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,465 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,573
• Tax from tax record: −$342 /mo · $4,108/yr
• Insurance: −$125
• HOA: −$57
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$518
• Net cashflow: $-150

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,655

Max offer price $273,443

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $20	-5% $-65	+0% $-150	+5% $-235	+10% $-320
Rent	-10% $-345	-5% $-248	+0% $-150	+5% $-53	+10% $44
Rate	-1.0pp $1	-0.5pp $-74	base $-150	+0.5pp $-228	+1.0pp $-307

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $74,999
• Closing costs: $9,000
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 8 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
728 Sunny Stroll Dr Middleburg, FL	4.0	2.0	1860	$2,200	$1.18	24d	1	0.44mi
3608 York Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1624	$2,299	$1.42	2d	121	0.47mi
824 Integra Park Dr Middleburg, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1047	$2,258	$2.16	3d	10	1.06mi
854 Redtail Ln Middleburg, FL	3.0	3.0	2381	$2,700	$1.13	24d	1	1.32mi
3146 Wandering Oaks Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1890	$2,345	$1.24	5d	1	1.39mi
3764 Athenian Way Middleburg, FL	3.0	2.5	1433	$1,900	$1.33	4d	1	1.40mi
1064 Moosehead Dr Orange Park, FL	4.0	2.0	1713	$2,099	$1.23	5d	1	1.41mi
670 Grover Ln Orange Park, FL	3.0	2.5	1704	$2,100	$1.23	24d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $57 · $684/yr

Listing history 2 events

1. 2026-04-12
   status Pending
2. 2026-04-04
   listed $299,995 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $4,108 · $342/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,108 · $342/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $29,578
• − Mortgage interest: −$16,804
• − Property taxes: −$4,108
• − Insurance: −$1,500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,366
• − Management: −$2,366
• − HOA: −$684
• − Depreciation: −$8,727
• Taxable loss: −$6,978
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,675
• After-tax cash flow: $-129/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Condition & rehab AI · 12 photos

Good 80/100 Cosmetic rehab

This nearly new home in the Cameron Oaks community of Middleburg is move-in ready with a good condition score and minimal maintenance required.

Value-add opportunities

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs

Renovation cost estimate screening

Value-add ROI direction

• Resale Paint exterior trim — Enhances curb appeal and value ↑
• Rental Clean gutters — Keeps property in good condition and reduces maintenance costs ↑

ⓘ Cost ranges are severity-bucket heuristics (US national rule-of-thumb). Get contractor quotes + a written scope before underwriting a rehab budget.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Clay
• NCES district ID: 1200300
• Math proficiency: 58% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 59% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $59,379
• Composite: 50.73/100
• National rank: #1815
• State rank: #14 of 73 in FL

Livability — Oakleaf Plantation

• Score: 70/100
• State rank: #446
• US rank: #8083

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime B+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Oakleaf Plantation, FL
• County: Clay County · 208,450 people
• City population: 40,366
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 58,983
• Household income: $84,431
• Rent vs Own: 20.7% rent · 79.3% own
• Severe rent burden: 975.0

Population outlook (Clay County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 230,495 people
• By 2030: 242,427 · +5.2%
• By 2040: 262,244 · +13.8%
• By 2050: 275,148 · +19.4%
• By 2075: 295,397 · +28.2%
• By 2100: 287,592 · +24.8%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (74%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 74% Hispanic / Latino 13% Two or more races 10% Black 7%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 2% Puerto Rican 5%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 2% Romanian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 87% English-only · Spanish 9% Arabic 1% German/W. Germanic 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Clay

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+39.3) · D 29.9% · R 69.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.6pp toward D · 2008: -42.8pp · 2024: -39.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+39.3 2020: R+37.1 2016: R+44.3 2012: R+45.8 2008: R+42.8

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -115.99%
• Current HPI: 305.2531
• Rent YoY: ▲ 3.35%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-04-12 Pending — realMLS
• 2026-04-04 Listed $299,995 realMLS

Property tax history

+57.4%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,108 · +4.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.