312 Alexander Ln · Lake Bridgeport, TX 76426

$150,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 216 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1960 10,542 sqft lot $694/sqft · 363% above area Est $180k · 17% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• Appreciation +4.6/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +3.2/5.0
• 1% rule +2.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

CALLING ALL CAR ENTHUSIAST or MACHINIST!!! This property Offers a Man's dream garage and workshop with lake views. You are only one lot from the lake, and the property consist of multiple lots. Seller has additional surrounding lots available from $1000-$2300. This property also offers a small cabin like structure with electric ran to it. Great lot, with a lot of potential. Bring all the cars or toys you can handle and keep them under covered parking or put them in a garage- you have plenty of space for all of it. The main house is in some need of minor updating and repairs, and the cabin would need a new ceiling, and floors. Overall great property with tons of potential for a lake cabin or a rental. COME AND CHECK IT OUT. Square footage of main house is an estimate and has not been confirmed.

Key facts

• Dream garage
• Multiple lots
• Covered parking

Tags

• DREAM GARAGE
• WORKSHOP
• LAKE VIEWS
• MULTIPLE LOTS
• COVERED PARKING

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $150k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $8 ($100/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $113k (24.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $113k (24.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 65/100 on livability (#692 in TX) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, crime A; Watch: health & safety D+, schools F, amenities F.
• Bridgeport ISD (rural): math 41% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #356 of 826 in TX (top 43%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 338 active listings in the ZIP; solid renter incomes; 460 units permitted in Wise County in 2024 (243 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent is only 15% of the median local income ($92k/yr) — well below the 30% rent-burden line; pricing power to push rent on renewal without tenant pushback.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-0.8%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $1k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Wise County population projected at +27% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 2 sale attempts since 2y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $30k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 6→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $112,627 (24.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1960 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.75% ✗
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.24%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 11.1

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $179,900
• List price: $150,000
• Delta: —
• Verdict: FAIR
• Comps: 5 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-0.82% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -5.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.77×
• Total profit: $-9,623
• Equity at exit: $37,505

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.13×
• Total profit: $5,471
• Equity at exit: $40,500

Cash invested: $42,000 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 76426

• Home prices YoY: -0.2%
• Active inventory: 338
• Price-to-rent: 11.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,126 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$787
• Tax from tax record: −$32 /mo · $388/yr
• Insurance: −$62
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$237
• Net cashflow: $8

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,116

Max offer price $150,000

Occupancy floor 94%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $37,500
• Closing costs: $4,500
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 5 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $150,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   pricedays on marketlisting id $150,000 Active 1 DOM
3. 2025-09-25
   listed $179,900 Active 804-char remark

   Show marketing remark (804 chars)

   CALLING ALL CAR ENTHUSIAST or MACHINIST!!! This property Offers a Man's dream garage and workshop with lake views. You are only one lot from the lake, and the property consist of multiple lots. Seller has additional surrounding lots available from $1000-$2300. This property also offers a small cabin like structure with electric ran to it. Great lot, with a lot of potential. Bring all the cars or toys you can handle and keep them under covered parking or put them in a garage- you have plenty of space for all of it. The main house is in some need of minor updating and repairs, and the cabin would need a new ceiling, and floors. Overall great property with tons of potential for a lake cabin or a rental. COME AND CHECK IT OUT. Square footage of main house is an estimate and has not been confirmed.

4. 2025-02-02
   historical
5. 2024-03-04
   listed $180,000 Active

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $388 · $32/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $2,745 · $229/mo
• Expected delta: +$2,357/yr (+$196/mo · 608.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 7/10 Severe 6 d/yr ≥113°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 19% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $13,515
• − Mortgage interest: −$8,402
• − Property taxes: −$388
• − Insurance: −$750
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,081
• − Management: −$1,081
• − Depreciation: −$4,364
• Taxable loss: −$2,551
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$612
• After-tax cash flow: $712/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Bridgeport ISD
• NCES district ID: 4811340
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -4.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▲ 3.00%
• Median HH income: $51,866
• Composite: 35.51/100
• National rank: #4913
• State rank: #356 of 826 in TX

Livability — Lake Bridgeport

• Score: 65/100
• State rank: #692
• US rank: #12943

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety D+ User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lake Bridgeport, TX
• County: Wise County · 49,037 people
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• Population (ZIP): 11,632
• Household income: $92,130
• Rent vs Own: 25.0% rent · 75.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 74.0

Population outlook (Wise County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 71,620 people
• By 2030: 75,858 · +5.9%
• By 2040: 83,908 · +17.2%
• By 2050: 90,717 · +26.7%
• By 2075: 107,583 · +50.2%
• By 2100: 114,996 · +60.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (60%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 60% Hispanic / Latino 32% Two or more races 9% Black 2% Asian 1% Native American 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 31%
• Common ancestry: Slovak 1% Lithuanian 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 72% English-only · Spanish 27%

Political lean MEDSL · Wise

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+70.0) · D 14.7% · R 84.7%
• 2008→2024 swing: -14.3pp toward R · 2008: -55.7pp · 2024: -70.0pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+70.0 2020: R+68.2 2016: R+69.9 2012: R+67.5 2008: R+55.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -0.82%
• Current HPI: 417.89
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

-0.1% since first listed

3 events — show timeline

• 2025-09-25 Listed $179,900 NTREIS
• 2025-02-02 Listing Removed — NTREIS
• 2024-03-04 Listed $180,000 NTREIS

Property tax history

+29.5%/yr

Latest (2023): $388 · +15.8% YoY. Source: county tax records.