157 Hollybrook Rd · Brighton, NY 14623

$199,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,025 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 8 Days on market

Built 1955 0.41 ac lot $195/sqft · 21% below area Est $253k · 21% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the C- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• Cash flow +13.6/30.0
• 1% rule +5.5/10.0
• Schools +5.2/10.0
• DSCR +4.1/10.0
• Rent growth +4.0/5.0
• Livability +4.0/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 157 Hollybrook Rd in Henrietta, a 1,025 SF Ranch offering 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths & an attached 1-car garage. A charming front porch & newer front door welcome you inside to an entryway featuring hardwood floors & a convenient coat closet. The bright living room flows into the updated eat-in kitchen complete w/ maple cabinets, tile flooring, tile backsplash, double sink, movable island, dishwasher, gas stove & refrigerator (’25). Down the hall are 3 large bedrooms, each offering great closet space, along w/ a beautifully renovated full bathroom featuring tile flooring & a tiled tub/shower surround. The finished basement provides additional liv

Key facts

• Charming front porch
• Brick patio
• Huge family room

Tags

• CHARMING FRONT PORCH
• UPDATED EAT-IN KITCHEN
• FINISHED BASEMENT
• HUGE FAMILY ROOM
• LARGE JACUZZI TUB
• BRICK PATIO

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage; 1-car garage
• Utilities: High-speed internet available; Public water connected; Sewer connected; Circuit breaker electric
• Home design: Single-story home; Existing construction; Block foundation
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Asphalt roof; Block foundation; Built (existing)
• Exterior features: Blacktop driveway; Open patio and porch; Patio; Porch; Shed(s)/storage

Interior

• Kitchen: Eat-in kitchen; Gas oven; Gas range; Dishwasher; Refrigerator
• Bedrooms: Three main-level bedrooms; Bedroom 1 on first level; Bedroom 2 on first level; Bedroom 3 on first level
• Flooring: Carpet; Hardwood; Tile; Varies
• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One main-level bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Gas forced-air heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Entrance foyer; Eat-in kitchen; Separate/formal living room; Jetted tub; Storage; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer; Dryer; Laundry in basement; Gas water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $200k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $12 ($140/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $200k).
• Cap rate 6.4% vs local median 3.9% in Brighton — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 81/100 on livability (#89 in NY, #1,379 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: housing A+, health & safety A+, schools B+; Watch: crime D+, amenities D-.
• Rush-Henrietta Central School District (suburban): math 62% / reading 57% proficiency, ranked #237 of 590 in NY (top 40%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Market conditions: Rents rising fast (+6.1%/yr); 48 active listings in the ZIP; 4 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,169 units permitted in Monroe County in 2024 (591 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 39% of the median local income ($65k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $1k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $6k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Monroe County population projected to shrink 6% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.

Negotiation context

• Only 8 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $88k; list at $200k implies a 126% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.1% of price; built in 1955 — expect roof / HVAC / electrical / plumbing capex.

Recommended offer $199,900

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1955 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
5. Crime grade is D in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.05% ✓
• Cap rate: 6.36%
• Cash-on-cash: 0.25%
• DSCR: 1.01
• GRM: 7.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $252,531
• List price: $199,900
• Delta: -20.84%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
16 Burt Dr	0.12mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-2%)	7mo	$176,000	$176	80
48 Coronet Rd	0.28mi	3/1.0	1,008 (-2%)	3mo	$270,000	$268	77
292 Hollybrook Rd	0.32mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,025 (0%)	3mo	$261,000	$255	76
199 Castle Rd	0.46mi	3/1.0	1,050 (+2%)	2mo	$226,000	$215	69
384 Hollybrook Rd	0.52mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-2%)	2mo	$285,000	$285	68
16 Down St	0.47mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-2%)	6mo	$210,000	$210	65
48 Rouge Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	2mo	$250,000	$244	65
39 Castle Rd	0.55mi	3/1.0	1,025 (0%)	7mo	$245,000	$239	64
432 Hollybrook Rd	0.63mi	3/1.0	1,000 (-2%)	0mo	$230,000	$230	62
7 Rouge Rd	0.73mi	3/1.5	1,000 (-2%)	1mo	$242,000	$242	59
87 Colony Ln	0.66mi	3/1.0	1,120 (+9%)	7mo	$235,000	$210	44
1108 Farnsworth Rd S	0.74mi	3/1.0	1,108 (+8%)	6mo	$220,000	$199	43

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 6.06% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -11.8%
• Equity multiple: 0.56×
• Total profit: $-24,796
• Equity at exit: $29,806

10-year hold

• IRR: 2.0%
• Equity multiple: 1.17×
• Total profit: $9,250
• Equity at exit: $17,284

Cash invested: $55,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 14623

• Rents YoY: 6.1%
• Active inventory: 48
• Price-to-rent: 7.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,098 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,048
• Tax from tax record: −$514 /mo · $6,172/yr
• Insurance: −$83
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$441
• Net cashflow: $12

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,083

Max offer price $199,900

Occupancy floor 94%

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $125	-5% $68	+0% $12	+5% $-45	+10% $-101
Rent	-10% $-154	-5% $-71	+0% $12	+5% $95	+10% $177
Rate	-1.0pp $112	-0.5pp $63	base $12	+0.5pp $-40	+1.0pp $-93

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $49,975
• Closing costs: $5,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 4 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
2001-2055 E Henrietta Rd Rochester, NY	2.0	1.0	650	$1,525	$2.35	3d	8	0.52mi
2655 Brighton Henrietta Town Line Rd Rochester, NY	1.0–2.0	1.0	769	$1,870	$2.43	3d	6	1.28mi
1656 Jefferson Rd Rochester, NY	3.0	2.0	1050	$2,500	$2.38	44d	1	1.30mi
168 Surrey Hill Way Rochester, NY	2.0	1.5	1008	$1,700	$1.69	3d	1	1.47mi

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-05-13
   listed $199,900 Active 1328-char remark
2. 2004-11-01
   soldstatus $88,500
3. 2002-08-30
   soldstatus $89,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $6,172 · $514/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $6,172 · $514/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥96°F today · 15 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $25,179
• − Mortgage interest: −$11,198
• − Property taxes: −$6,172
• − Insurance: −$1,000
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,014
• − Management: −$2,014
• − Depreciation: −$5,815
• Taxable loss: −$3,034
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$728
• After-tax cash flow: $868/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Rush-Henrietta Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3625170
• Math proficiency: 62% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 57% ▲ 1.00%
• Median HH income: $58,682
• Composite: 51.52/100
• National rank: #1720
• State rank: #237 of 590 in NY

Livability — Brighton

• Score: 81/100
• State rank: #89
• US rank: #1379

Category grades

Amenities D- Commute B- Cost of living C+ Crime D+ Employment B+ Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Monroe County · 674,131 people
• City population: 38,703
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• Population (ZIP): 26,032
• Household income: $65,342
• Rent vs Own: 49.4% rent · 50.6% own
• Severe rent burden: 1161.0

Population outlook (Monroe County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 759,460 people
• By 2030: 757,154 · -0.3%
• By 2040: 740,644 · -2.5%
• By 2050: 714,443 · -5.9%
• By 2075: 645,883 · -15.0%
• By 2100: 547,084 · -28.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (67%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 67% Asian 15% Black 8% Two or more races 6% Hispanic / Latino 6%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Puerto Rican 3%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 4% Iranian 2% Lithuanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 14% · China, Canada, Vietnam
• Languages at home: 84% English-only · Chinese 4% Other Indo-European 3% Spanish 2%

Political lean MEDSL · Monroe

• 2024 margin: D (+19.1) · D 59.5% · R 40.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: +1.4pp toward D · 2008: 17.7pp · 2024: 19.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+19.1 2020: D+21.0 2016: D+14.1 2012: D+17.4 2008: D+17.7

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -180.68%
• Current HPI: 262.8187
• Rent YoY: ▲ 6.06%
• Metro: Rochester, NY
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+124.6% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-21 Pending — UNYREIS
• 2026-05-13 Listed $199,900 UNYREIS
• 2004-11-01 Sold (Public Records) $88,500 Public Records
• 2002-08-30 Sold (Public Records) $89,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+7.7%/yr

Latest (2025): $6,172 · +62.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.