7351 Larkspur Dr · Mancelona, MI 49659

$99,900

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 896 sqft · Manufactured public records · 191 Days on market

Built 1990 0.40 ac lot $111/sqft · 21% below area Est $195k · 49% under $33/mo HOA · 3% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +20.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• DSCR +6.3/10.0
• 1% rule +5.1/10.0
• Livability +3.9/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

More pictures will be added by 12/16/25- 3 bedroom 1.5 bath. Priced to sell in an area of few homes for sale in Northern. Michigan located in LAKES OF THE NORTH: offers four seasons of outdoor activities for members and their guests. Amenities include an 18-hole Golf Course and Pro Shop, an airport, and a full-service Restaurant and Tavern--all open to the public. Member-exclusive areas feature beach houses on Pencil Lake and Harold Lake, the Activities Clubhouse with an indoor pool, whirlpool, water slide, and gym room, along with outdoor tennis and pickleball courts, shuffleboard, horseshoes, and a playground. During the winter months, members enjoy the Winter Sports Area with an ice rink, cross-country ski, and snowshoe trails that transform into scenic hiking paths in summer. Campers Village provides a year-round retreat for outdoor enthusiasts, and the surrounding region offers hundreds of miles of ATV and snowmobile trails that connect directly to the communityDespite its impressive size and extensive amenities, Lakes of the North remains one of the most affordable associations in Michigan. This balance of scale, value, and natural beauty has made it a standout destination for families, property owners, and outdoor enthusiasts alike. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from Boyne Mountain and Shanty Creek Resorts, 25 minutes from Gaylord, 32 minutes from Torch Lake, and less than an hour's drive to the shores of Lake Michigan, Lakes of the North offers the very best of Northern Michigan living.

Key facts

• Water slide
• Whirlpool
• 18 hole golf course

Tags

• 18 HOLE GOLF COURSE
• FULL SERVICE RESTAURANT
• INDOOR POOL
• WHIRLPOOL
• WATER SLIDE
• GYM ROOM

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $100k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $123 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($1k rent vs $100k).
• Recommended offer: $88k (12.0% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.
• Cap rate 7.8% vs local median 3.3% in Mancelona — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 78/100 on livability (#105 in MI, #2,568 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: cost of living A+, housing A+, health & safety A+; Watch: schools D-, amenities F, commute F.
• Mancelona Public Schools (rural): math 28% / reading 41% proficiency, ranked #310 of 540 in MI (top 57%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 60% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 151 active listings in the ZIP; 101 units permitted in Antrim County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $691 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $3k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Antrim County population projected at -27% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 191 days — a 12% lower offer ($88k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 4 sale attempts since 3y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $20k (17%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $100k implies a 53% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $87,912 (12.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 191 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 12% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Why hasn't it sold? Are there any deal-killer items the seller is aware of (foundation, flood, title, zoning, code violations)?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
7. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
8. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.01% ✓
• Cap rate: 7.77%
• Cash-on-cash: 5.28%
• DSCR: 1.23
• GRM: 8.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (median comp): $195,425
• List price: $99,900
• Delta: -48.88%
• Verdict: UNDERPRICED
• Comps: 20 within 1.0 mi

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -8.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.70×
• Total profit: $-8,349
• Equity at exit: $14,895

10-year hold

• IRR: 1.4%
• Equity multiple: 1.10×
• Total profit: $2,833
• Equity at exit: $8,638

Cash invested: $27,972 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 62 Landlord-Friendly
• State Michigan: 62 Landlord-Friendly · EVEN
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

7-day pay-or-quit; mixed climate; Detroit/AA have some protections.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 49659

• Home prices YoY: -29.7%
• Active inventory: 151
• Price-to-rent: 8.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,006 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$524
• Tax from tax record: −$73 /mo · $877/yr
• Insurance: −$42
• HOA: −$33
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$211
• Net cashflow: $123

Break-even live

Break-even rent $850

Max offer price $99,900

Occupancy floor 83%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $24,975
• Closing costs: $2,997
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $33 · $396/yr
• Likely covers: waterpoolgym

Listing history 23 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $99,900 Active 191 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $99,900 Active 190 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $99,900 Active 189 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $99,900 Active 188 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $99,900 Active 186 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $99,900 Active 185 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $99,900 Active 182 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   price $99,900 Active 181 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $119,900 Active 181 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $119,900 Active 180 DOM
11. 2026-06-05
    days on market $119,900 Active 178 DOM
12. 2026-06-04
    days on market $119,900 Active 176 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $119,900 Active 175 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $119,900 Active 174 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 173 DOM
16. 2026-05-31
    days on market $119,900 Active 172 DOM
17. 2025-12-10
    listed $119,900 Active 1526-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1526 chars)

    More pictures will be added by 12/16/25- 3 bedroom 1.5 bath. Priced to sell in an area of few homes for sale in Northern. Michigan located in LAKES OF THE NORTH: offers four seasons of outdoor activities for members and their guests. Amenities include an 18-hole Golf Course and Pro Shop, an airport, and a full-service Restaurant and Tavern--all open to the public. Member-exclusive areas feature beach houses on Pencil Lake and Harold Lake, the Activities Clubhouse with an indoor pool, whirlpool, water slide, and gym room, along with outdoor tennis and pickleball courts, shuffleboard, horseshoes, and a playground. During the winter months, members enjoy the Winter Sports Area with an ice rink, cross-country ski, and snowshoe trails that transform into scenic hiking paths in summer. Campers Village provides a year-round retreat for outdoor enthusiasts, and the surrounding region offers hundreds of miles of ATV and snowmobile trails that connect directly to the communityDespite its impressive size and extensive amenities, Lakes of the North remains one of the most affordable associations in Michigan. This balance of scale, value, and natural beauty has made it a standout destination for families, property owners, and outdoor enthusiasts alike. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from Boyne Mountain and Shanty Creek Resorts, 25 minutes from Gaylord, 32 minutes from Torch Lake, and less than an hour's drive to the shores of Lake Michigan, Lakes of the North offers the very best of Northern Michigan living.

18. 2025-12-09
    listed $119,900 Active 1537-char remark

    Show marketing remark (1537 chars)

    More pictures will be added by 12/16/25 - 3 bedroom 1.5 bath. Priced to sell in an area of few homes for sale in Northern. Michigan located in LAKES OF THE NORTH: offers four seasons of outdoor activities for members and their guests. Amenities include an 18-hole Golf Course and Pro Shop, an airport, and a full-service Restaurant and Tavern—all open to the public. Member-exclusive areas feature beach houses on Pencil Lake and Harold Lake, the Activities Clubhouse with an indoor pool, whirlpool, water slide, and gym room, along with outdoor tennis and pickleball courts, shuffleboard, horseshoes, and a playground. During the winter months, members enjoy the Winter Sports Area with an ice rink, cross-country ski, and snowshoe trails that transform into scenic hiking paths in summer. Campers Village provides a year-round retreat for outdoor enthusiasts, and the surrounding region offers hundreds of miles of ATV and snowmobile trails that connect directly to the community Despite its impressive size and extensive amenities, Lakes of the North remains one of the most affordable associations in Michigan. This balance of scale, value, and natural beauty has made it a standout destination for families, property owners, and outdoor enthusiasts alike. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from Boyne Mountain and Shanty Creek Resorts, 25 minutes from Gaylord, 32 minutes from Torch Lake, and less than an hour's drive to the shores of Lake Michigan, Lakes of the North offers the very best of Northern Michigan living.

19. 2025-12-09
    listed $119,900 Active

    Show marketing remark (1537 chars)

    More pictures will be added by 12/16/25 - 3 bedroom 1.5 bath. Priced to sell in an area of few homes for sale in Northern. Michigan located in LAKES OF THE NORTH: offers four seasons of outdoor activities for members and their guests. Amenities include an 18-hole Golf Course and Pro Shop, an airport, and a full-service Restaurant and Tavern—all open to the public. Member-exclusive areas feature beach houses on Pencil Lake and Harold Lake, the Activities Clubhouse with an indoor pool, whirlpool, water slide, and gym room, along with outdoor tennis and pickleball courts, shuffleboard, horseshoes, and a playground. During the winter months, members enjoy the Winter Sports Area with an ice rink, cross-country ski, and snowshoe trails that transform into scenic hiking paths in summer. Campers Village provides a year-round retreat for outdoor enthusiasts, and the surrounding region offers hundreds of miles of ATV and snowmobile trails that connect directly to the community Despite its impressive size and extensive amenities, Lakes of the North remains one of the most affordable associations in Michigan. This balance of scale, value, and natural beauty has made it a standout destination for families, property owners, and outdoor enthusiasts alike. Conveniently located just 20 minutes from Boyne Mountain and Shanty Creek Resorts, 25 minutes from Gaylord, 32 minutes from Torch Lake, and less than an hour's drive to the shores of Lake Michigan, Lakes of the North offers the very best of Northern Michigan living.

20. 2023-02-17
    soldstatus $65,100
21. 2023-02-16
    soldstatus $65,100
22. 2023-01-23
    listed $65,000
23. 2007-10-31
    soldstatus $27,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast MI · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $877 · $73/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,208 · $101/mo
• Expected delta: +$331/yr (+$28/mo · 37.7%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥93°F today · 13 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 1/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,070
• − Mortgage interest: −$5,596
• − Property taxes: −$877
• − Insurance: −$500
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$966
• − Management: −$966
• − HOA: −$396
• − Depreciation: −$2,906
• Taxable loss: −$136
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$33
• After-tax cash flow: $1,509/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Mancelona Public Schools
• NCES district ID: 2622350
• Math proficiency: 28% ▼ -5.00%
• Reading proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Median HH income: $39,613
• Composite: 28.89/100
• National rank: #6639
• State rank: #310 of 540 in MI

Livability — Mancelona

• Score: 78/100
• State rank: #105
• US rank: #2568

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime A Employment D- Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings A+

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Lakes of the North, MI
• Population (ZIP): 7,226

Population outlook (Antrim County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 21,804 people
• By 2030: 20,814 · -4.5%
• By 2040: 18,394 · -15.6%
• By 2050: 15,981 · -26.7%
• By 2075: 11,712 · -46.3%
• By 2100: 7,651 · -64.9%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (93%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 93% Two or more races 4% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 7% Romanian 5% Italian 4%
• Foreign-born: 1% · Canada

Political lean MEDSL · Antrim

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+23.8) · D 37.5% · R 61.2% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: -13.4pp toward R · 2008: -10.3pp · 2024: -23.8pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+23.8 2020: R+23.8 2016: R+29.6 2012: R+21.3 2008: R+10.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -103.79%
• Current HPI: 245.5937
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.37%
• F500 in state: 28

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in MI)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Automotive Parts	3	$48B
▸Automotive	2	$372B
▸Chemicals	1	$45B
▸Automotive Retail	1	$29B
▸Healthcare / Medical Devices	1	$23B
▸Automotive Technology	1	$20B

Price history

+344.1% since first listed

7 events — show timeline

• 2025-12-10 Listed $119,900 REALCOMP
• 2025-12-09 Listed $119,900 MiRealSource-MiMLS
• 2025-12-09 Listed $119,900 SW Michigan MLS
• 2023-02-17 Sold (Public Records) $65,100 Public Records
• 2023-02-16 Sold (MLS) $65,100 WWMLS
• 2023-01-23 Listed $65,000 WWMLS
• 2007-10-31 Sold (Public Records) $27,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+3.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $877 · -16.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.