44 Willow Cir · Cary, IL 60013

$269,900

3 bd · 1.5 ba · 1,304 sqft · Townhouse public records · 14 Days on market

Built 1979 Est $235k · 15% over $265/mo HOA · 10% of rent

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Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +11.8/30.0
• 1% rule +4.5/10.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Livability +3.8/5.0
• DSCR +3.5/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• ARV discount +0.8/15.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Beautifully updated and move-in ready home featuring fresh interior paint, new flooring throughout, updated kitchen cabinets and countertops, and a full appliance package. The thoughtfully refreshed interior offers a bright and inviting atmosphere with modern finishes that appeal to today's buyers. Enjoy comfortable living spaces, functional layout, and numerous improvements completed to enhance both style and value. Conveniently located near shopping, dining, parks, schools, and commuter routes. A great opportunity to own a well-maintained home with many recent updates already completed. Schedule your showing today!

Key facts

• Well maintained home
• $265 HOA
• Garage

Tags

• UPDATED KITCHEN CABINETS
• FULL APPLIANCE PACKAGE
• WELL MAINTAINED HOME
• NUMEROUS IMPROVEMENTS

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Lot size recorded from county records; Directions: US-14 (Northwest Hwy) to Three Oaks Rd, south to Oak Valley Dr, left to Willow Cir, right to property
• HOA & community: Monthly association fee of $265; HOA covers insurance, exterior maintenance, and lawn care; Pets allowed (cats and dogs)

Exterior

• Parking: Attached garage (1 garage space, 1 total parking space)
• Utilities: Public water; Public sewer
• Home design: Attached single-family (townhouse) — two-story model "Hickory"; Entry level: 1; Fee-simple ownership with HOA
• Construction: Vinyl siding and brick exterior; Age: 41–50 years
• Exterior features: Subdivision: Bright Oaks; School bus service

Interior

• Kitchen: Kitchen on main level (8 x 5)
• Bedrooms: Three bedrooms (master and two bedrooms on second floor, one bedroom listed without level); Master bedroom on second floor (14 x 10); Bedroom 2 on second floor (10 x 10); Bedroom 3 on second floor (11 x 10)
• Bathrooms: One full bathroom; One half bathroom
• Heating & cooling: Natural gas heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Six total rooms; Eating area; Dining room; Family room; Living room
• Laundry & utility: Laundry room

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.5-bath townhouse listed at $270k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-73 ($-877/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $257k (4.8% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $257k (5.0% below list).
• Recommended offer: $257k (5.0% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.
• Cap rate 6.0% vs local median 4.2% in Cary — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 75/100 on livability (#227 in IL, #4,227 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: crime A+, employment A+, housing A+; Watch: amenities F, commute F, health & safety F.
• Chsd 155 (suburban): math 41% / reading 42% proficiency, ranked #98 of 620 in IL (top 16%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 60 active listings in the ZIP; 3 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals leasing fast (median 3d on market — plan ~1-2 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 1,595 units permitted in McHenry County in 2024 (485 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $8k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• McHenry County population projected at -12% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.

Negotiation context

• Only 14 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• Current owner paid $95k; list at $270k implies a 184% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $256,514 (5.0% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Built in 1979 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.95% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.97%
• Cash-on-cash: -1.16%
• DSCR: 0.95
• GRM: 8.8

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $234,720
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
1100 Oak Valley Dr #1100	0.11mi	3/1.5	1,386 (+6%)	4mo	$214,750	$155	81
64 Bright Oaks Cir	0.29mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+4%)	0mo	$218,000	$161	77
60 Forest Ln	0.27mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+4%)	8mo	$245,000	$181	72
134 Bright Oaks Cir #134	0.35mi	3/1.5	1,386 (+6%)	2mo	$239,900	$173	71
50 Bright Oaks Cir	0.30mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+4%)	8mo	$223,000	$164	70
36 Bright Oaks Cir	0.36mi	3/1.5	1,386 (+6%)	9mo	$260,000	$188	65
64 Wildwood Trl	0.38mi	3/2.0	1,357 (+4%)	11mo	$250,000	$184	64
120 Bright Oaks Cir	0.34mi	3/1.5	1,410 (+8%)	8mo	$250,000	$177	64
44 Wildwood Trl	0.44mi	3/1.5	1,386 (+6%)	10mo	$249,900	$180	61
1173 Amber Dr	0.41mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,359 (+4%)	8mo	$307,000	$226	58
1169 Amber Dr	0.42mi	2/2.5 (-1)	1,359 (+4%)	11mo	$301,950	$222	56
12 Oak Valley Dr	0.45mi	2/1.5 (-1)	1,140 (-13%)	0mo	$200,000	$175	53

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -18.1%
• Equity multiple: 0.36×
• Total profit: $-48,207
• Equity at exit: $40,243

10-year hold

• IRR: -10.2%
• Equity multiple: 0.38×
• Total profit: $-47,229
• Equity at exit: $23,336

Cash invested: $75,572 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning
• State Illinois: 43 Moderately Tenant-Leaning · D+7
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

Chicago RTLO is among the strongest tenant ordinances in the Midwest; downstate is more landlord-friendly.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 60013

• Active inventory: 60
• Price-to-rent: 8.8×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,565 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,415
• Tax from tax record: −$307 /mo · $3,680/yr
• Insurance: −$112
• HOA: −$265
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$539
• Net cashflow: $-73

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,658

Max offer price $256,990

Occupancy floor 98%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $67,475
• Closing costs: $8,097
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 3 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
815 Sandra Ln Cary, IL	3.0	1.0	936	$2,529	$2.70	3d	1	0.67mi
1399 New Haven Dr Cary, IL	2.0	3.0	1873	$2,700	$1.44	6d	1	1.36mi
252 New Haven Dr Cary, IL	2.0	2.0	1872	$2,500	$1.34	1d	1	1.49mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $265 · $3,180/yr

Listing history 9 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $269,900 Active 14 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $269,900 Active 13 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $269,900 Active 12 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $269,900 Active 11 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $269,900 Active 9 DOM
6. 2026-06-09
   days on market $269,900 Active 5 DOM
7. 2026-06-08
   days on market $269,900 Active 4 DOM
8. 2026-06-07
   remarks 624-char remark
9. 2026-06-07
   listed $269,900 Active 3 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast IL · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $3,680 · $307/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $4,904 · $409/mo
• Expected delta: +$1,223/yr (+$102/mo · 33.2%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 2/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥100°F today · 14 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 2 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $30,782
• − Mortgage interest: −$15,119
• − Property taxes: −$3,680
• − Insurance: −$1,350
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$2,463
• − Management: −$2,463
• − HOA: −$3,180
• − Depreciation: −$7,852
• Taxable loss: −$5,324
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,278
• After-tax cash flow: $401/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Chsd 155
• NCES district ID: 1711370
• Math proficiency: 41% ▼ -9.00%
• Reading proficiency: 42% ▼ -7.00%
• Median HH income: $87,560
• Composite: 39.33/100
• National rank: #3982
• State rank: #98 of 620 in IL

Livability — Cary

• Score: 75/100
• State rank: #227
• US rank: #4227

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living B- Crime A+ Employment A+ Housing A+ Health & safety F User ratings B-

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Cary, IL
• City population: 26,503
• Population (ZIP): 26,503

Population outlook (McHenry County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 305,342 people
• By 2030: 301,491 · -1.3%
• By 2040: 288,211 · -5.6%
• By 2050: 268,430 · -12.1%
• By 2075: 226,209 · -25.9%
• By 2100: 181,247 · -40.6%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (80%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 80% Hispanic / Latino 14% Two or more races 9%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 10% Puerto Rican 2%
• Common ancestry: Romanian 11% Italian 2% Portuguese 2%
• Foreign-born: 7% · Canada
• Languages at home: 88% English-only · Spanish 8% Russian/Polish/Slavic 2%

Political lean MEDSL · McHenry

• 2024 margin: Lean R (+5.3) · D 46.6% · R 51.9% · Other 1.5%
• 2008→2024 swing: -10.6pp toward R · 2008: 5.3pp · 2024: -5.3pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+5.3 2020: R+2.5 2016: R+8.1 2012: R+8.8 2008: D+5.3

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -157.47%
• Current HPI: 201.8071
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 1.59%
• F500 in state: 60

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in IL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Insurance	4	$201B
▸Consumer Goods	4	$87B
▸Industrial Machinery	3	$64B
▸Healthcare	2	$55B
▸Retail / Pharmacy	1	$148B
▸Agriculture / Food	1	$86B

Price history

+383.7% since first listed

4 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-05 Listed $269,900 MRED as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 1994-05-02 Sold (Public Records) $95,000 Public Records
• 1990-06-12 Sold (Public Records) $88,000 Public Records
• 1984-05-01 Sold (Public Records) $55,800 Public Records

Property tax history

+1.4%/yr

Latest (2024): $3,680 · +1.5% YoY. Source: county tax records.