1307 E River Hills Cir # 17 Cir · Jacksonville, FL 32211

$5,000

2 bd · 3.0 ba · 1,590 sqft · Condo public records · 2 Days on market

Built 1986

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Why this score? — see what drove the D+ grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +15.0/30.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• 1% rule +5.0/10.0
• DSCR +5.0/10.0
• Livability +4.2/5.0
• Schools +3.9/10.0
• Rent growth +3.1/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Back on the market as buyer failed to obtain financing. Gated waterfront 2 bedroom, 2.5 baths condominium townhouse that is one of the few units that have been completely remodeled! Balcony views from living room and primary bedroom overlooking the Arlington River. Enjoy going boating down the St Johns River or out to the ocean from your own boat slip with a 10' x 40' 12,000lb boat lift capable of a large boat over 30 feet depending on the width of the boat. Take in a football game with a 5-10 min boat ride to the stadium or along the river to one of the waterfront restaurants. Residence enjoy an in ground pool, gazebo, bath house all in a gated community. Condo fees include water/sewer and all common area maintenance, including the marina! Dining room could be used as an office or converted for a third bedroom. One reserved parking spot. Furniture included with purchase as pictured but adds no value. Freshly painted and ready for it's new owner!

Key facts

• Built 1986
• Listed 2 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Home design: Residential condominium
• Exterior features: Condo zoning

Interior

• Bathrooms: Two full bathrooms; One half bathroom
• Interior features: Directions: From Downtown head south on I-95 to Atlantic Blvd, then left on River Hills Drive E; condo on the right.

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/3.0-bath condo listed at $5k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $628 ($8k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($2k rent vs $5k).
• Cap rate 173.0% vs local median 4.0% in Jacksonville — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 83/100 on livability (#50 in FL, #911 nationally) — a professional / high-income tenant draw. Strengths: amenities A+, commute A+, housing A+.
• Duval (urban): math 46% / reading 45% proficiency, ranked #48 of 73 in FL (top 66%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: Rents rising (+2.5%/yr); 142 active listings in the ZIP; 27 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 21d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); 6,503 units permitted in Duval County in 2024 (1,131 in 5+ unit buildings).
• This rent runs 33% of the median local income ($57k/yr) — at the standard rent-burdened threshold; future hikes will face affordability resistance.

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $35 of loan paydown is wiped out by about $150 of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Duval County population projected at +19% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.
• At projected returns (-3.0% appreciation + 2.5% rent growth), your $1k cash investment doubles in ~1 year — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• Only 2 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.
• 5 sale attempts since 19y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo; HOA is 32% of rent.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $5,000

Questions for the listing agent

1. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
2. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
3. Any open or pending special assessments — roof, HVAC, plumbing, elevator, façade? What's the per-unit balance and payoff schedule, and is the seller paying it off at close or rolling it to the buyer?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are B-rated — typically a magnet for longer-tenancy family renters. What's the average tenant stay here, and is there a school-zone premium baked into asking?
6. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
7. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
8. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
9. How much new apartment / multifamily construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply (>2% of stock underway) typically softens rents 12–24 months out; light construction supports rent growth.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 31.11% ✓
• Cap rate: 172.96%
• Cash-on-cash: 595.22%
• DSCR: 27.48
• GRM: 0.3

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 2.5% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 28.70×
• Total profit: $38,778
• Equity at exit: $746

10-year hold

• IRR: —
• Equity multiple: 60.72×
• Total profit: $83,614
• Equity at exit: $432

Cash invested: $1,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32211

• Rents YoY: 2.5%
• Active inventory: 142
• Price-to-rent: 0.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,556 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$26
• Tax est. 1.5%: −$6 /mo · $75/yr
• Insurance: −$2
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA est. from 3 same-building comps: −$500
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$327
• Net cashflow: $628

Break-even live

Break-even rent $761

Max offer price $5,000

Occupancy floor 55%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $1,250
• Closing costs: $150
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 27 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
1307 River Hills Cir E #16 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1600	$1,670	$1.04	19d	1	0.02mi
1620 Bartram Rd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1259	$1,659	$1.32	3d	14	0.50mi
538 Aiken Rd Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1600	$1,900	$1.19	23d	1	0.74mi
2441 University Blvd S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1558	$2,100	$1.35	21d	1	0.88mi
5201 Atlantic Blvd Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1140	$1,480	$1.30	1d	3	0.89mi
607 Garden Cliff Ct Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1076	$1,395	$1.30	7d	1	0.92mi
7600 Free Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1229	$1,745	$1.42	23d	1	1.09mi
5350 Arlington Expy Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.0–2.0	1137	$1,439	$1.27	3d	43	1.11mi
237 Aralia Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1502	$1,875	$1.25	23d	1	1.12mi
246 Aralia Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1502	$1,900	$1.26	23d	1	1.12mi
7632 Hare Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1169	$1,690	$1.45	23d	1	1.15mi
7528 Arlington Expy Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1057	$1,325	$1.25	1d	4	1.26mi
7201 Arlington Expy Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	934	$1,122	$1.20	4d	14	1.27mi
7811 Aquarius Cir S Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1298	$1,760	$1.36	23d	1	1.28mi
1201 Douglas St Jacksonville, FL	3.0	1.5	1152	$1,325	$1.15	23d	1	1.29mi
1201 Douglas St #4 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1154	$1,325	$1.15	23d	1	1.29mi
421 Aralia Ln Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1492	$1,681	$1.13	21d	1	1.29mi
3000 Coronet Ln Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1017	$1,369	$1.35	23d	5	1.32mi
1217 Underhill Dr Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.0	1100	$1,100	$1.00	23d	5	1.35mi
8000 Dandy Ave Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.0	1330	$1,761	$1.32	7d	1	1.35mi
1135 Caliente Dr Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1400	$950	$0.68	7d	1	1.35mi
1135 Caliente Dr Jacksonville, FL	3.0	3.0	1400	$950	$0.68	4d	1	1.35mi
1913 Art Museum Dr Jacksonville, FL	1.0–2.0	1.0–2.0	1000	$1,315	$1.31	23d	2	1.36mi
7557 Arlington Expy Jacksonville, FL	1.0–3.0	1.0–2.0	1025	$1,464	$1.43	1d	15	1.42mi
1278 Easter St Unit 2 Jacksonville, FL	3.0	2.5	1509	$1,598	$1.06	4d	1	1.44mi
1200 Bretta St #2 Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,200	$1.14	21d	1	1.45mi
1200 Bretta St Jacksonville, FL	2.0	1.5	1056	$1,175	$1.11	7d	2	1.46mi

HOA detail condo

• Monthly dues: $0 · $0/yr
• Likely covers: watersewerpoolsecurity
• Assessments: None detected in remarks — confirm with the listing agent.

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $5,000 Active 2 DOM
2. 2026-06-16
   remarks 307-char remark
3. 2026-06-16
   listed $5,000 Active 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 75% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 1/10 Low
• 🌡 Heat 9/10 Extreme 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 4/10 Moderate 6 unhealthy d/yr today · 6 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $18,668
• − Mortgage interest: −$280
• − Property taxes: −$75
• − Insurance: −$822
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,493
• − Management: −$1,493
• − HOA: −$6,000
• − Depreciation: −$145
• Taxable income: $8,358
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$2,006
• After-tax cash flow: $5,530/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Duval
• NCES district ID: 1200480
• Math proficiency: 46% ▼ -11.00%
• Reading proficiency: 45% ▼ -4.00%
• Median HH income: $48,987
• Composite: 38.97/100
• National rank: #4076
• State rank: #48 of 73 in FL

Livability — Jacksonville

• Score: 83/100
• State rank: #50
• US rank: #911

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A+ Cost of living A Crime C Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A+ User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Census place: Jacksonville, FL
• County: Duval County · 1,015,274 people
• City population: 979,034
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• Population (ZIP): 36,762
• Household income: $57,021
• Rent vs Own: 44.3% rent · 55.7% own
• Severe rent burden: 2350.0

Population outlook (Duval County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 1,013,010 people
• By 2030: 1,059,228 · +4.6%
• By 2040: 1,141,439 · +12.7%
• By 2050: 1,205,258 · +19.0%
• By 2075: 1,324,282 · +30.7%
• By 2100: 1,319,620 · +30.3%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.70)
• Race & ethnicity: White 41% Black 33% Hispanic / Latino 15% Two or more races 13% Asian 4%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 4% Puerto Rican 3% Cuban 3%
• Common ancestry: Hispanic 2% Slovak 2% Lithuanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 14% · Canada, Vietnam, Jamaica
• Languages at home: 79% English-only · Spanish 14% French/Haitian/Cajun 2% Tagalog/Filipino 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Duval

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.7% · R 50.1% · Other 1.2%
• 2008→2024 swing: +0.4pp no change · 2008: -1.9pp · 2024: -1.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+1.5 2020: D+3.8 2016: R+1.5 2012: R+3.6 2008: R+1.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -187.46%
• Current HPI: 330.4724
• Rent YoY: ▲ 2.50%
• Metro: Jacksonville, FL
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-99.6% since first listed

16 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-16 Listed $5,000 NFMLS
• 2021-12-17 Sold (Public Records) $285,000 Public Records
• 2021-12-14 Sold (MLS) $285,000 realMLS
• 2021-12-03 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-11-06 Contingent — realMLS
• 2021-10-05 Relisted — realMLS
• 2021-09-30 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-08-26 Contingent — realMLS
• 2021-07-22 Listed $300,000 realMLS
• 2013-08-02 Sold (Public Records) $68,500 Public Records
• 2013-07-31 Sold (MLS) $68,500 realMLS
• 2013-04-27 Listed $65,000 realMLS
• 2007-08-23 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2007-02-23 Listed $289,900 realMLS
• 1987-12-01 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 1987-04-03 Sold (Public Records) $1,400,000 Public Records

Property tax history

+12.9%/yr

Latest (2025): $4,089 · -0.7% YoY. Source: county tax records.