24018 Prairie Dust Dr · Houston, TX 77447

$230,000

3 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,510 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 4 Days on market

Built 2020 4,900 sqft lot Est $231k · at est. $67/mo HOA · 3% of rent

---

Why this score? — see what drove the F grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• ARV discount +7.7/15.0
• Cash flow +6.6/30.0
• 1% rule +4.0/10.0
• Livability +3.7/5.0
• Schools +2.9/10.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• Rent growth +2.1/5.0
• DSCR +0.8/10.0
• Appreciation +0.0/10.0

Listing remarks

Welcome to 24018 Prairie Dust Dr in Windrow, one of Hockley, TX's hidden gems! This move-in ready 1-story home features 3 bedrooms, 2 baths, and a private home office with an open-concept layout filled with natural light. The kitchen offers bright cabinetry, granite countertops, stainless steel appliances, and seamless flow for everyday living and entertaining. Enjoy Texas evenings on the patio and custom fire pit area, perfect for relaxing or gathering with friends. Refrigerator, washer, dryer, and blinds are included. Located minutes from Highway 290 and Grand Parkway 99, with easy access to Cypress, shopping, dining, wineries, horseback riding, and Zube Park. Windrow residents enjoy amen

Key facts

• Custom fire pit area
• Granite countertops
• Private home office

Tags

• PRIVATE HOME OFFICE
• OPEN-CONCEPT LAYOUT
• GRANITE COUNTERTOPS
• STAINLESS STEEL APPLIANCES
• CUSTOM FIRE PIT AREA
• WALKING TRAILS

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/2.0-bath single-family listed at $230k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-383 ($-5k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $162k (29.4% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $207k (10.1% below list).
• Recommended offer: $162k (29.4% below list) — sets the bar for cash-flow.
• Cap rate 4.3% vs local median 3.2% in Houston — top-decile yield for the area; either an underpriced asset or a hidden risk that comps aren't pricing in. Stress-test before assuming the spread holds.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 74/100 on livability (#184 in TX, #4,771 nationally) — a middle-class / working-renter tenant base. Strengths: amenities A+, cost of living A+, housing A+; Watch: crime F.
• Waller ISD (rural): math 30% / reading 35% proficiency, ranked #532 of 826 in TX (top 64%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Zoned schools: Waller H S (math 25% / reading 40%, grade F, #1,029 of 1,632 statewide, top 64%, 2,639 students, 62% FRL) — zoned schools at 62% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: Rents soft (-1.6%/yr); 1790 active listings in the ZIP; 15 comparable units currently listed for rent nearby; rentals at typical pace (median 23d on market — plan ~3-4 weeks tenant-placement turnaround); high-income renter base; 29,883 units permitted in Harris County in 2024 (8,621 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• Local home prices are declining (-3.0%/yr); year-one equity from $2k of loan paydown is wiped out by about $7k of value loss. Plan a longer hold.
• Harris County population projected at +47% by 2050 — long-run rental-demand tailwind backs the buy-and-hold thesis.

Negotiation context

• Only 4 days on market — expect competitive offers; lowballing is unlikely to land.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: property tax is 3.4% of price.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; moderate wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→22/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $162,379 (29.4% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. Property tax is high relative to price — has the assessment been appealed recently, and will the sale trigger a re-assessment?
3. What does the HOA fee cover, when was the last increase, and are there any pending special assessments or reserve-fund shortfalls?
4. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
5. Schools are D-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
6. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
7. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
8. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
9. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
10. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.90% ✗
• Cap rate: 4.30%
• Cash-on-cash: -7.13%
• DSCR: 0.68
• GRM: 9.3

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $231,030
• Comps found: 12

Show comp detail 12 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
24039 Hay Needle Ln	0.11mi	3/2.0	1,510 (0%)	2mo	$245,000	$162	94
23831 Thistle Spud Ln	0.15mi	3/2.0	1,642 (+9%)	4mo	$250,000	$152	75
17826 Juneberry Seed St	0.35mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,539 (+2%)	2mo	$235,000	$153	74
18406 Hilltop Climb Dr	0.53mi	3/2.0	1,505 (-0%)	4mo	$239,999	$159	71
24006 Hay Needle Ln	0.10mi	4/2.5 (+1)	1,621 (+7%)	6mo	$229,900	$142	71
23922 Steep Climb Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+1%)	3mo	$229,999	$151	64
18415 Running Shadow Ct	0.49mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,598 (+6%)	1mo	$224,900	$141	62
23843 Wimble Dr	0.17mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,690 (+12%)	8mo	$254,990	$151	61
23902 Steep Climb Dr	0.68mi	3/2.0	1,524 (+1%)	8mo	$249,000	$163	60
17711 Red Sage Ct	0.36mi	4/2.0 (+1)	1,680 (+11%)	1mo	$265,000	$158	58
18406 Cobalt Cove Ln	0.49mi	3/2.0	1,701 (+13%)	3mo	$245,000	$144	54
18131 Mendocino Ridge Ln	0.51mi	3/2.0	1,290 (-15%)	1mo	$270,000	$209	51

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

-3.0% appreciation · 0.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: -33.1%
• Equity multiple: -0.05×
• Total profit: $-67,415
• Equity at exit: $34,294

10-year hold

• IRR: -71.0%
• Equity multiple: -0.74×
• Total profit: $-112,320
• Equity at exit: $19,886

Cash invested: $64,400 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Texas: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+5
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day notice; statewide preemption; one of the fastest eviction climates; Travis County (Austin) slightly slower.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 77447

• Home prices YoY: -31.1%
• Rents YoY: -1.6%
• Active inventory: 1790
• Price-to-rent: 9.3×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $2,067 high
• Mortgage (P&I): −$1,206
• Tax from tax record: −$647 /mo · $7,765/yr
• Insurance: −$96
• HOA: −$67
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$434
• Net cashflow: $-383

Break-even live

Break-even rent $2,552

Max offer price $162,379

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-253	-5% $-318	+0% $-383	+5% $-448	+10% $-513
Rent	-10% $-546	-5% $-464	+0% $-383	+5% $-301	+10% $-219
Rate	-1.0pp $-267	-0.5pp $-324	base $-383	+0.5pp $-442	+1.0pp $-503

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $57,500
• Closing costs: $6,900
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Rent comps 15 comps

Address	Beds	Baths	Sqft	Rent	$/sqft	DOM	Units	Dist
24006 Hay Needle Ln Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	1621	$2,000	$1.23	6d	1	0.12mi
17858 Plow Horse Ln Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	1619	$2,000	$1.24	25d	1	0.26mi
24215 Becker Hollow Ln Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1860	$2,291	$1.23	0d	1	0.37mi
17811 Pumpkin Vine Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1197	$1,890	$1.58	18d	1	0.40mi
18435 Summit Ranch Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1230	$1,796	$1.46	23d	1	0.51mi
17822 Bullis Gap Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1503	$1,750	$1.16	44d	1	0.76mi
24415 Beef Canyon Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1497	$1,700	$1.14	44d	1	1.06mi
18927 Jasper Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	4.0	2.5	1851	$1,895	$1.02	23d	1	1.09mi
31938 Holland Arbor Trl Hockley, TX	4.0	3.0	1941	$2,195	$1.13	44d	1	1.18mi
23823 Cumberland Ridge Dr Hockley, TX	1.0–4.0	1.0–3.0	1034	$1,954	$1.89	0d	20	1.20mi
17430 Cedar Rock Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.5	1750	$2,000	$1.14	44d	1	1.21mi
24202 Bar Kay Ln Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1402	$1,795	$1.28	44d	1	1.23mi
17203 Osprey Landing Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.5	2160	$1,901	$0.88	6d	1	1.45mi
24543 Eagles Claw Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1466	$1,766	$1.20	23d	1	1.46mi
24115 Palo Dura Dr Hockley, TX	3.0	2.0	1461	$1,430	$0.98	25d	1	1.47mi

HOA detail

• Monthly dues: $67 · $804/yr

Listing history 3 events

1. 2026-06-21
   days on market $230,000 Coming Soon 4 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   remarks 699-char remark
3. 2026-06-17
   listed $230,000 Coming Soon 1 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast TX · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $7,765 · $647/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $7,765 · $647/mo
• Expected delta: $0/yr ($0/mo · 0.0%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 6/10 Major FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 68% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 5/10 Major
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥112°F today · 22 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 2/10 Low 1 unhealthy d/yr today · 1 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $24,809
• − Mortgage interest: −$12,884
• − Property taxes: −$7,765
• − Insurance: −$1,150
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$1,985
• − Management: −$1,985
• − HOA: −$804
• − Depreciation: −$6,691
• Taxable loss: −$8,454
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$2,029
• After-tax cash flow: $-2,565/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Waller ISD
• NCES district ID: 4844430
• Math proficiency: 30% ▼ -23.00%
• Reading proficiency: 35% ▼ -11.00%
• Median HH income: $58,911
• Composite: 29.12/100
• National rank: #6593
• State rank: #532 of 826 in TX

Livability — Houston

• Score: 74/100
• State rank: #184
• US rank: #4771

Category grades

Amenities A+ Commute A Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment C Housing A+ Health & safety A- User ratings F

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• County: Harris County · 4,702,590 people
• City population: 3,226,434
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• Population (ZIP): 25,231
• Household income: $116,925
• Rent vs Own: 14.0% rent · 86.0% own
• Severe rent burden: 265.0

Population outlook (Harris County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 5,571,493 people
• By 2030: 6,089,821 · +9.3%
• By 2040: 7,142,806 · +28.2%
• By 2050: 8,185,864 · +46.9%
• By 2075: 10,574,329 · +89.8%
• By 2100: 12,109,958 · +117.4%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Diverse neighborhood (Simpson 0.63)
• Race & ethnicity: White 44% Hispanic / Latino 41% Two or more races 16% Black 9% Asian 1%
• Hispanic origin (detail): Mexican 27%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 3% Slovak 1% Romanian 1%
• Foreign-born: 15% · Canada, Jamaica, Dominican Republic
• Languages at home: 69% English-only · Spanish 28% Other Indo-European 1% Vietnamese 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Harris

• 2024 margin: Lean D (+5.5) · D 52.0% · R 46.4% · Other 1.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: +3.9pp toward D · 2008: 1.6pp · 2024: 5.5pp
• All cycles: 2024: D+5.5 2020: D+13.3 2016: D+12.4 2012: D+0.1 2008: D+1.6

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▼ -112.73%
• Current HPI: 249.6969
• Rent YoY: ▼ -1.58%
• Metro: Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.95%
• F500 in state: 110

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in TX)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Energy	16	$1,198B
▸Technology	5	$198B
▸Engineering / Construction	4	$72B
▸Energy Services	3	$60B
▸Utilities	3	$41B
▸Healthcare	2	$330B

Price history

1 event — show timeline

• 2026-06-17 Coming Soon $230,000 HARMLS

Property tax history

+3.6%/yr

Latest (2025): $7,765 · -0.0% YoY. Source: county tax records.