17870 Lil Dixie Dr · Sanderson, FL 32087

$139,900

2 bd · 2.0 ba · 1,080 sqft · Manufactured public records · 17 Days on market

Built 2003 2.30 ac lot ↓ 60% since listing

---

Why this score? — see what drove the D grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +10.3/30.0
• Appreciation +9.7/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• Schools +4.4/10.0
• DSCR +3.0/10.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Livability +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0
• 1% rule +1.9/10.0

Listing remarks MLS

Large homesite in the Osceola National Forest! Double Wide Mobile Home with an addition that is approximately 300sf that has it's own heating/cooling system with build-in bunk beds. Great place for those extra hunters! Two separated doubled gates entrances means easy access with lots of parking space. A large pond with island shaped like a boat which has a custom built gazebo on it! Orange, lemon, Grapefruit, and fig trees add a nice touch. Watch out for the geese! Also, 2 wells!! Portable 8,000 Watt generator included! There is another parcel included in this sale, 29-1S-20-0036-0302-0060. Also, two more septic systems located on properties.

Key facts

• 2.3 acre lot
• Built 2003
• Listed 16 days

Property features AI

Finance

• Other: Property zoned R1; Approximately 1 acre lot; Living area reported as 1,080 sq ft (public records)
• Financial info: No lease restrictions; Homestead exempt
• HOA & community: No HOA/association

Exterior

• Parking: No parking details provided
• Security: No security features listed
• Utilities: Well water; Septic tank; Electricity connected; Sewer connected; Water connected
• Home design: Manufactured double wide home; Single-story; East-facing
• Construction: Vinyl siding; Metal roof; Concrete perimeter foundation; Built as a manufactured home
• Exterior features: Private mailbox; Dirt road access

Interior

• Kitchen: No appliances listed
• Bedrooms: 2 bedrooms
• Flooring: Carpet
• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Central heating; Central air conditioning
• Interior features: Kitchen and family room combined; Wood-burning fireplace
• Laundry & utility: Washer hookup; Electric dryer hookup

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/2.0-bath manufactured listed at $140k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $-142 ($-2k/yr) — negative.
• To cash-flow at today's rent, offer at most $115k (17.9% below list).
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $97k (30.9% below list).
• Recommended offer: $97k (30.9% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads: area grade D — affects rentability + tenant quality, not the cash-flow math above.
• Baker (town): math 53% / reading 49% proficiency, ranked #28 of 73 in FL (top 38%) — acceptable for families but not a draw, mixed tenant base, ~2y average lease.
• Zoned schools: Prek/Kindergarten Center (592 students, 58% FRL); Baker County Middle School (math 47% / reading 42%, grade D, #320 of 571 statewide, top 57%, 1,102 students, 52% FRL); Baker County Senior High School (math 41% / reading 48%, grade F, #237 of 667 statewide, top 36%, 1,425 students, 40% FRL) — zoned schools at 50% FRL track the district average.
• Market conditions: 25 active listings in the ZIP; 99 units permitted in Baker County in 2024 (0 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $14k of equity ($967 loan paydown + $13k appreciation (9.4% local appreciation)).
• Baker County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• By year 3, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$36k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 17 days — a 2% lower offer ($138k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 7 sale attempts since 11y ago; this cycle's ask has dropped $10k (7%) from the opening price — seller is motivated, your offer sets the floor, not the list.
• Current owner paid $33k; list at $140k implies a 324% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Watch-outs: flood insurance adds $66/mo.
• Climate carrying-cost: major flood risk; severe wind risk, 99% chance of damaging wind over 30y; major wildfire risk; extreme-heat days projected 7→20/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $96,633 (30.9% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. What do current leases actually rent for vs. the listed asking? Can we see a recent rent roll and the last 12 months of T-12 income?
2. What's the actual annual flood-insurance premium (NFIP or private), and is the property in a SFHA with mandatory coverage?
3. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
4. The area grade is low — what's the realistic commute time and amenity access for the typical tenant pool here? Any planned neighborhood developments (good or bad) we should know about?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.69% ✗
• Cap rate: 5.64%
• Cash-on-cash: -2.31%
• DSCR: 0.90
• GRM: 12.1

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

9.44% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 20.0%
• Equity multiple: 2.58×
• Total profit: $61,815
• Equity at exit: $120,385

10-year hold

• IRR: 18.3%
• Equity multiple: 5.80×
• Total profit: $187,852
• Equity at exit: $253,831

Cash invested: $39,172 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly
• State Florida: 87 Strongly Landlord-Friendly · R+3
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

3-day pay-or-quit; preempts local rent control; landlord-friendly statutes. Court speed varies by county.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 32087

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 25
• Price-to-rent: 12.1×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $966 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$734
• Tax from tax record: −$47 /mo · $564/yr
• Insurance: −$58
• Flood insurance flood zone: −$66 /mo · $798/yr
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$203
• Net cashflow: $-142

Break-even live

Break-even rent $1,146

Max offer price $114,811

Occupancy floor —

Sensitivity live

Price	-10% $-63	-5% $-102	+0% $-142	+5% $-182	+10% $-221
Rent	-10% $-218	-5% $-180	+0% $-142	+5% $-104	+10% $-66
Rate	-1.0pp $-72	-0.5pp $-106	base $-142	+0.5pp $-178	+1.0pp $-215

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $34,975
• Closing costs: $4,197
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 14 events

1. 2026-06-22
   days on market $139,900 Active 17 DOM
2. 2026-06-21
   days on market $139,900 Active 16 DOM
3. 2026-06-19
   days on market $139,900 Active 14 DOM
4. 2026-06-18
   days on market $139,900 Active 13 DOM
5. 2026-06-17
   days on market $139,900 Active 12 DOM
6. 2026-06-16
   days on market $139,900 Active 11 DOM
7. 2026-06-16
   price $139,900 Active 10 DOM
8. 2026-06-15
   days on market $150,000 Active 10 DOM
9. 2026-06-14
   days on market $150,000 Active 8 DOM
10. 2026-06-12
    days on market $150,000 Active 7 DOM
11. 2026-06-09
    days on market $150,000 Active 4 DOM
12. 2026-06-08
    days on market $150,000 Active 3 DOM
13. 2026-06-07
    remarks 699-char remark
14. 2026-06-07
    listed $150,000 Active 2 DOM

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast FL · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $564 · $47/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,161 · $97/mo
• Expected delta: +$597/yr (+$50/mo · 105.8%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 7/10 Severe FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 99% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 7/10 Severe
• 🌡 Heat 8/10 Severe 7 d/yr ≥107°F today · 20 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 9/10 Extreme 99% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 7/10 Severe 14 unhealthy d/yr today · 15 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,596
• − Mortgage interest: −$7,837
• − Property taxes: −$564
• − Insurance: −$1,497
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$928
• − Management: −$928
• − Depreciation: −$4,070
• Taxable loss: −$4,227
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$1,014
• After-tax cash flow: $-690/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Baker
• NCES district ID: 1200060
• Math proficiency: 53% ▼ -6.00%
• Reading proficiency: 49% ▼ -3.00%
• Median HH income: $50,301
• Composite: 43.67/100
• National rank: #2958
• State rank: #28 of 73 in FL

Livability — Sanderson

No livability data for this city. (Only ~50 U.S. cities are tracked.)

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 4,718

Population outlook (Baker County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 27,607 people
• By 2030: 27,452 · -0.6%
• By 2040: 26,637 · -3.5%
• By 2050: 25,103 · -9.1%
• By 2075: 19,576 · -29.1%
• By 2100: 11,664 · -57.7%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority White (64%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 64% Black 26% Two or more races 8% Hispanic / Latino 3%
• Common ancestry: Iranian 3% Romanian 1% Italian 1%
• Foreign-born: 2% · Canada
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 4% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Baker

• 2024 margin: Solid R (+73.1) · D 13.2% · R 86.3%
• 2008→2024 swing: -15.7pp toward R · 2008: -57.4pp · 2024: -73.1pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+73.1 2020: R+70.2 2016: R+64.8 2012: R+58.6 2008: R+57.4

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 9.44%
• Current HPI: 202.0625
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 3.28%
• F500 in state: 36

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in FL)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Industrial Technology	2	$29B
▸Insurance	2	$17B
▸Retail	1	$60B
▸Technology Distribution	1	$58B
▸Homebuilding	1	$35B
▸Technology Manufacturing	1	$35B

Price history

-60.0% since first listed

22 events — show timeline

• 2026-06-06 Listed $150,000 Stellar MLS as Distributed by MLS Grid
• 2025-10-26 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2024-01-11 Listed $334,000 realMLS
• 2023-03-22 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2022-06-10 Price Changed $200,000 realMLS
• 2021-11-04 Price Changed $175,000 realMLS
• 2021-10-08 Sold (MLS) $33,000 realMLS
• 2021-10-01 Pending — realMLS
• 2021-04-12 Price Changed $33,000 realMLS
• 2021-04-12 Price Changed $170,000 realMLS
• 2020-11-09 Price Changed $35,000 realMLS
• 2020-08-02 Price Changed $175,000 realMLS
• 2019-11-25 Price Changed $165,000 realMLS
• 2019-09-20 Price Changed $170,000 realMLS
• 2019-07-23 Listed $175,000 realMLS
• 2019-07-17 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2019-07-03 Listed $30,000 realMLS
• 2019-07-02 Listed $25,000 realMLS
• 2016-04-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2016-03-02 Relisted — realMLS
• 2016-03-01 Listing Removed — realMLS
• 2015-10-06 Listed $375,000 realMLS

Property tax history

-1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $564 · +3.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.