117 Mill Creek Rd · Burkeville, VA 23954

$56,000

3 bd · 1.0 ba · 1,008 sqft · SingleFamily public records · 27 Days on market

Built 1972 1.86 ac lot Est $72k · 22% under

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Why this score? — see what drove the A- grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +30.0/30.0
• ARV discount +15.0/15.0
• 1% rule +10.0/10.0
• DSCR +10.0/10.0
• Appreciation +6.6/10.0
• Schools +3.0/10.0
• Livability +2.9/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Singlewide mobile home with large addition. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, large den, shop, two car carport. Great investment property!

Key facts

• 1.86 acre lot
• Built 1972
• Listed 27 days

Property features AI

Exterior

• Utilities: Public water; Septic sewer; Electric service
• Home design: Single-story home; To be built
• Construction: Vinyl siding and wood siding exterior; Composition roof; About 1,008 square feet above-grade finished area
• Exterior features: Approximately 1.86-acre lot; Public water; Septic tank

Interior

• Bathrooms: 2 full bathrooms
• Heating & cooling: Electric heating; Window unit(s) for cooling
• Interior features: 6 total rooms; Resale condition

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 3-bed/1.0-bath single-family listed at $56k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $407 ($5k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• Meets the 1% rule at list price ($945 rent vs $56k).
• Recommended offer: $55k (1.5% below list) — sets the bar for market timing.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 57/100 on livability (#497 in VA) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: crime C-, schools F, amenities F.
• Prince Edward County Public School District (town): math 25% / reading 48% proficiency, ranked #126 of 131 in VA (top 96%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases; 65% free/reduced lunch — lower-income household profile, screen leases tightly.
• Market conditions: 26 active listings in the ZIP; 65 units permitted in Prince Edward County in 2024 (5 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $2k of equity ($387 loan paydown + $2k appreciation (3.2% local appreciation)).
• Prince Edward County population projected to shrink 9% by 2050 — rents likely to lag national; underwrite the cash flow, not the appreciation.
• At projected returns (3.2% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $16k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 27 days — a 2% lower offer ($55k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• Current owner paid $31k; list at $56k implies a 81% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Risks & watch-outs

• Climate carrying-cost: extreme-heat days projected 7→17/yr by 2055 (HVAC capex compounding) — expect insurance premiums to compound above CPI over the hold.

Recommended offer $55,160 (1.5% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. Built in 1972 — when were the roof, HVAC, electrical panel, plumbing, and water heater last replaced?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
5. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
6. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 1.69% ✓
• Cap rate: 15.01%
• Cash-on-cash: 31.13%
• DSCR: 2.39
• GRM: 4.9

CMA / ARV

• ARV (on-the-fly): $71,568
• Comps found: 3

Show comp detail 3 sales within ~0.75 mi

Address	Dist	Beds/Ba	Sqft	Sold	Price	$/sf	Match
6379 Patrick Henry Hwy	0.33mi	4/1.0 (+1)	960 (-5%)	12mo	$68,000	$71	62
392 Campbell Crossing Rd	0.73mi	3/1.0	1,042 (+3%)	8mo	$195,000	$187	54
264 Holly Ln	0.42mi	2/2.0 (-1)	910 (-10%)	16mo	$50,000	$55	42

Match score weights: distance 35% · size 25% · config 20% · recency 20%. Top-matched comps best support the ARV.

Projected returns pro-forma

3.16% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 37.2%
• Equity multiple: 3.11×
• Total profit: $33,117
• Equity at exit: $25,689

10-year hold

• IRR: 37.1%
• Equity multiple: 6.16×
• Total profit: $80,985
• Equity at exit: $39,991

Cash invested: $15,680 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning
• State Virginia: 55 Moderately Landlord-Leaning · D+2
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

VRLTA gives some tenant protections; Northern Virginia courts slower; rural VA landlord-leaning.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 23954

• Home prices YoY: 2.3%
• Active inventory: 26
• Price-to-rent: 4.9×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $945 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$294
• Tax from tax record: −$23 /mo · $275/yr
• Insurance: −$23
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$198
• Net cashflow: $407

Break-even live

Break-even rent $430

Max offer price $56,000

Occupancy floor 52%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $14,000
• Closing costs: $1,680
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 17 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $56,000 Active 27 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $56,000 Active 26 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $56,000 Active 25 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $56,000 Active 24 DOM
5. 2026-06-15
   pricedays on market $56,000 Active 23 DOM
6. 2026-06-13
   days on market $59,000 Active 22 DOM
7. 2026-06-12
   days on market $59,000 Active 21 DOM
8. 2026-06-09
   days on market $59,000 Active 18 DOM
9. 2026-06-08
   days on market $59,000 Active 17 DOM
10. 2026-06-08
    days on market $59,000 Active 16 DOM
11. 2026-06-07
    days on market $59,000 Active 15 DOM
12. 2026-06-03
    days on market $59,000 Active 12 DOM
13. 2026-06-02
    days on market $59,000 Active 11 DOM
14. 2026-06-01
    days on market $59,000 Active 10 DOM
15. 2026-05-31
    days on market $59,000 Active 9 DOM
16. 2026-05-22
    listed $59,000 Active
17. 2014-12-18
    soldstatus $31,000 130-char remark

    Show marketing remark (130 chars)

    Singlewide mobile home with large addition. 3 bedrooms, 2 full baths, large den, shop, two car carport. Great investment property!

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast VA · Resets to sale price

• Current annual tax: $275 · $23/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $459 · $38/mo
• Expected delta: +$184/yr (+$15/mo · 66.9%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 6/10 Major 7 d/yr ≥104°F today · 17 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 4/10 Moderate 14% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $11,342
• − Mortgage interest: −$3,137
• − Property taxes: −$275
• − Insurance: −$280
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$907
• − Management: −$907
• − Depreciation: −$1,629
• Taxable income: $4,206
• Est. tax owed @ 24.0%: −$1,010
• After-tax cash flow: $3,872/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Prince Edward County Public School District
• NCES district ID: 5103060
• Math proficiency: 25% ▼ -37.00%
• Reading proficiency: 48% ▼ -12.00%
• Median HH income: $39,482
• Composite: 30.49/100
• National rank: #6221
• State rank: #126 of 131 in VA

Livability — Burkeville

• Score: 57/100
• State rank: #497
• US rank: #22036

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime C- Employment D- Housing B- Health & safety F User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 2,364

Population outlook (Prince Edward County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 24,387 people
• By 2030: 24,161 · -0.9%
• By 2040: 23,194 · -4.9%
• By 2050: 22,292 · -8.6%
• By 2075: 20,854 · -14.5%
• By 2100: 19,030 · -22.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Majority Black (59%)
• Race & ethnicity: Black 59% White 40%
• Common ancestry: Portuguese 3% Serbian 3% Romanian 2%
• Foreign-born: 1% · China
• Languages at home: 98% English-only · Chinese 1% Spanish 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Prince Edward

• 2024 margin: Toss-up / Even · D 48.2% · R 50.7% · Other 1.1%
• 2008→2024 swing: -12.5pp toward R · 2008: 9.9pp · 2024: -2.6pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+2.6 2020: D+5.6 2016: D+5.4 2012: D+12.8 2008: D+9.9

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 3.16%
• Current HPI: 141.157
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.40%
• F500 in state: 50

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in VA)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Aerospace / Defense	4	$236B
▸Technology / Defense	3	$32B
▸Financial Services	2	$176B
▸Utilities	2	$27B
▸Insurance	2	$25B
▸Technology	2	$15B

Price history

+90.3% since first listed

2 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-22 Listed $59,000 CVRMLS
• 2014-12-18 Sold (MLS) $31,000 SCAR

Property tax history

+1.0%/yr

Latest (2025): $275 · -8.2% YoY. Source: county tax records.