501 Hopkins Crandall Rd · Smyrna, NY 13464

$110,000

2 bd · 1.0 ba · 980 sqft · Manufactured public records · 31 Days on market

Built 1988 2.00 ac lot

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Why this score? — see what drove the C grade

The composite is a weighted blend of 9 inputs, each scored 0–100. Each bar is that input's sub-score; the figure is the points it added to the 100-point composite (weight × sub-score).

• Cash flow +17.7/30.0
• Appreciation +10.0/10.0
• ARV discount +7.5/15.0
• DSCR +5.5/10.0
• 1% rule +4.2/10.0
• Schools +3.6/10.0
• Livability +2.7/5.0
• Rent growth +2.5/5.0
• Condition / age +2.5/5.0

Listing remarks MLS

Updated and well tended 2BR home in a great location! Fantastic valley views provide pleasure for every season.

Key facts

• Views
• Updates
• New flooring

Tags

• 2 ACRE PARCEL
• VIEWS
• NEW FLOORING
• SPACIOUS PARCEL
• UPDATES

Property features AI

Exterior

• Parking: No garage
• Utilities: Electricity connected; Well water; Septic tank
• Home design: Single-wide mobile home; One-story; Existing structure; Slab foundation
• Construction: Aluminum siding
• Exterior features: Gravel driveway; Leased propane tank; Agricultural, rectangular lot

Interior

• Kitchen: Dishwasher; Gas oven; Gas range; Refrigerator; Eat-in kitchen
• Bedrooms: 2 main-level bedrooms
• Flooring: Laminate; Varies
• Bathrooms: 1 full bathroom (main level)
• Heating & cooling: Propane forced-air heating
• Interior features: Ceiling fan(s); Eat-in kitchen; Kitchen/family room combo; Main level primary bedroom; Bedroom on main level
• Laundry & utility: Washer and dryer on main level; Propane water heater

What this means for you Summary

Snapshot

• This is a 2-bed/1.0-bath manufactured listed at $110k.

Deal economics

• At list price, monthly cash flow is $89 ($1k/yr) — positive.
• The deal already cash-flows at list — no discount required.
• To meet the 1% rule (rent ≥ 1% of price), the offer needs to be $102k (7.6% below list).
• Recommended offer: $102k (7.6% below list) — sets the bar for 1% rule.

Location & tenants

• Location reads 53/100 on livability (#1,161 in NY) — a working-class tenant base; expect higher turnover. Strengths: cost of living A+; Watch: health & safety C-, housing D, schools F.
• Sherburne-Earlville Central School District (rural): math 34% / reading 51% proficiency, ranked #492 of 590 in NY (top 83%) — families likely to look elsewhere, expect single-tenant / working-renter base with shorter leases.
• Market conditions: 8 active listings in the ZIP; 151 units permitted in Chenango County in 2024 (96 in 5+ unit buildings).

Forward outlook

• In year one you build about $12k of equity ($761 loan paydown + $11k appreciation (10.0% local appreciation)).
• Chenango County population projected at -26% by 2050 — secular population decline; favor cash flow + early exit over multi-decade hold.
• At projected returns (10.0% appreciation + 3.0% rent growth), your $31k cash investment doubles in ~3 years — after that, you're playing with house money.
• By year 4, paydown + projected appreciation supports a ~$42k cash-out refi (75% LTV) — recoverable capital for the next deal without selling this one.

Negotiation context

• It's been on market 31 days — a 3% lower offer ($107k) is reasonable based on typical stale-listing flexibility.
• 3 sale attempts since 20y ago with the ask held roughly flat each time — persistent listings suggest the price (not the market) is what's stuck; bring a comps-based counter.
• Current owner paid $65k; list at $110k implies a 69% gain — meaningful room to come down on a strong offer.

Recommended offer $101,656 (7.6% below list)

Questions for the listing agent

1. It's been on market 31 days. Have you received any prior offers? Is the seller open to a 8% concession, seller financing, or rate buy-down credit?
2. Is there a deadline driving the sale (1031 exchange, divorce, estate, relocation)? That informs how much negotiation room exists.
3. Schools are F-rated, which usually means shorter tenancies and higher turnover. Who's the typical renter profile here, and what's been the actual vacancy rate?
4. Crime grade is F in this area — have there been break-ins, vandalism, or insurance claims at this property in the last 3 years? What carrier currently insures it and at what premium?
5. What's the average days-on-market for RENTAL listings here right now (not sales)? A rising rental-DOM trend means longer vacancies and softer asking-rent achievability than the comps imply.
6. What's the recent tenant-quality profile in this submarket — average credit score on applications, eviction rate, late-payment / NSF rate, and stable-employment percentage? A property-management company in the area should have these aggregated.
7. How much new for-sale + rental construction is in the pipeline within 1–3 miles? Heavy new supply typically softens prices + rents 12–24 months out; constrained supply supports both.

Investment metrics

• 1% rule: 0.92% ✗
• Cap rate: 7.27%
• Cash-on-cash: 3.48%
• DSCR: 1.15
• GRM: 9.0

CMA / ARV

No comps found within radius.

Projected returns pro-forma

10.0% appreciation · 3.0% rent growth · sell at horizon

5-year hold

• IRR: 26.8%
• Equity multiple: 3.13×
• Total profit: $65,585
• Equity at exit: $99,097

10-year hold

• IRR: 23.4%
• Equity multiple: 7.12×
• Total profit: $188,636
• Equity at exit: $213,706

Cash invested: $30,800 (down + closing). Projections, not guarantees.

Landlord ↔ Tenant lean methodology

• Overall (STATE): 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly
• State New York: 15 Strongly Tenant-Friendly · D+10
• County: — inherits STATE
• City: — inherits STATE

NYC rent stabilization (~1M units); 2019 HSTPA strengthened tenant rights; courts deeply backlogged.

Methodology + full state rankings →

ZIP-level market 13464

• Home prices YoY: 4.9%
• Active inventory: 8
• Price-to-rent: 9.0×

Monthly cashflow live

• Estimated rent: $1,017 medium
• Mortgage (P&I): −$577
• Tax from tax record: −$91 /mo · $1,093/yr
• Insurance: −$46
• HOA: −$0
• Vacancy / Maint / Mgmt: −$213
• Net cashflow: $89

Break-even live

Break-even rent $903

Max offer price $110,000

Occupancy floor 86%

UW: 25.0% down · 7.5% · 30yr · 1.5% tax · 5.0% vac · 8.0% maint · 8.0% mgmt

Financing live

Cash to close

• Down payment: $27,500
• Closing costs: $3,300
• Reserves months: —
• Total cash needed: —

Listing history 24 events

1. 2026-06-18
   days on market $110,000 Active 31 DOM
2. 2026-06-17
   days on market $110,000 Active 30 DOM
3. 2026-06-16
   days on market $110,000 Active 29 DOM
4. 2026-06-15
   days on market $110,000 Active 28 DOM
5. 2026-06-13
   days on market $110,000 Active 26 DOM
6. 2026-06-12
   days on market $110,000 Active 25 DOM
7. 2026-06-09
   days on market $110,000 Active 22 DOM
8. 2026-06-08
   days on market $110,000 Active 21 DOM
9. 2026-06-07
   days on market $110,000 Active 20 DOM
10. 2026-06-07
    days on market $110,000 Active 19 DOM
11. 2026-06-04
    days on market $110,000 Active 16 DOM
12. 2026-06-02
    days on market $110,000 Active 15 DOM
13. 2026-06-01
    days on market $110,000 Active 14 DOM
14. 2026-05-31
    days on market $110,000 Active 13 DOM
15. 2026-05-18
    listed $110,000 Active
16. 2008-12-30
    soldstatus $65,000 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Updated and well tended 2BR home in a great location! Fantastic valley views provide pleasure for every season.

17. 2008-12-29
    soldstatus $64,999
18. 2008-10-13
    listed $69,900 111-char remark

    Show marketing remark (111 chars)

    Updated and well tended 2BR home in a great location! Fantastic valley views provide pleasure for every season.

19. 2006-11-20
    soldstatus $47,500
20. 2006-09-19
    soldstatus $47,500 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Country views, spectacular country setting - 2 acres just 15 minutes from Norwich - Great starter home or Getaway!NICE CONDITION!

21. 2006-04-28
    soldstatus $75,000
22. 2006-04-04
    listed $49,900 129-char remark

    Show marketing remark (129 chars)

    Country views, spectacular country setting - 2 acres just 15 minutes from Norwich - Great starter home or Getaway!NICE CONDITION!

23. 2001-02-05
    soldstatus $7,500
24. 2001-02-05
    soldstatus $11,000

ⓘ Source: listings_history table (triggers on properties + properties_extension) + one-shot backfill from property_details.listing_events for pre-trigger history.

Tax reassessment forecast NY · Partial reset (capped growth)

• Current annual tax: $1,093 · $91/mo
• Projected year-2 tax: $1,476 · $123/mo
• Expected delta: +$383/yr (+$32/mo · 35.1%)

ⓘ Screening estimate from a state-policy table — verify with the county assessor before closing.

Climate risk First Street

• 🌊 Flood 1/10 Low FEMA zone X (unshaded) · 0% chance over 30 yrs
• 🔥 Wildfire 3/10 Moderate
• 🌡 Heat 1/10 Low 7 d/yr ≥91°F today · 16 d/yr by 30 yrs out
• 💨 Wind 2/10 Low 100% chance of damaging wind over 30 yrs
• 🫁 Air quality 1/10 Low 0 unhealthy d/yr today · 0 by 30 yrs out

Taxation est. · year 1

• Rental income: $12,199
• − Mortgage interest: −$6,162
• − Property taxes: −$1,093
• − Insurance: −$550
• − Repairs & maintenance: −$976
• − Management: −$976
• − Depreciation: −$3,200
• Taxable loss: −$758
• Est. tax savings @ 24.0%: +$182
• After-tax cash flow: $1,254/yr

For passive investors: Depreciation is non-cash, so a rental often shows a tax loss while cash-flowing — sheltering income. Rental losses are passive: they offset passive income freely, and up to $25,000/yr can offset ordinary (W-2) income if you actively participate and your MAGI is under $100k (phasing out to $0 by $150k); unused losses carry forward. On sale, claimed depreciation is recaptured at up to 25%, and gains may owe capital-gains tax (a 1031 exchange can defer both). Figures are a year-1 estimate at your 24.0% rate — not tax advice; consult a CPA.

Schools (NCES district)

• District: Sherburne-Earlville Central School District
• NCES district ID: 3626700
• Math proficiency: 34% ▼ -8.00%
• Reading proficiency: 51% ▲ 12.00%
• Median HH income: $47,060
• Composite: 36.22/100
• National rank: #4725
• State rank: #492 of 590 in NY

Livability — Smyrna

• Score: 53/100
• State rank: #1161
• US rank: #24610

Category grades

Amenities F Commute F Cost of living A+ Crime F Employment F Housing D Health & safety C- User ratings A

Schools grade is shown separately in the Schools card above.

Census & demographics

• Population (ZIP): 1,154

Population outlook (Chenango County) Hauer SSP2

• Today (2025): 45,669 people
• By 2030: 43,484 · -4.8%
• By 2040: 38,774 · -15.1%
• By 2050: 34,000 · -25.6%
• By 2075: 24,637 · -46.1%
• By 2100: 16,452 · -64.0%

Race, ethnicity, and origin ACS 2023

• Neighborhood character: Predominantly White (95%)
• Race & ethnicity: White 95% Two or more races 4%
• Common ancestry: Lithuanian 2% Iranian 2% Slovak 2%
• Languages at home: 95% English-only · Spanish 3% French/Haitian/Cajun 1% Other Asian/Pacific 1%

Political lean MEDSL · Chenango

• 2024 margin: Strong R (+27.2) · D 36.4% · R 63.6%
• 2008→2024 swing: -26.1pp toward R · 2008: -1.1pp · 2024: -27.2pp
• All cycles: 2024: R+27.2 2020: R+23.3 2016: R+28.1 2012: R+3.4 2008: R+1.1

Not yet ingested

• Civics: —

Market trends

• HPI YoY: ▲ 15.85%
• Current HPI: 338.4559
• Rent YoY: —
• Metro: —
• State GDP YoY: ▲ 2.60%
• F500 in state: 92

Industry mix (Fortune 500 HQ in NY)

Industry	F500 HQs	Revenue
▸Financial Services	10	$950B
▸Consumer Goods	9	$162B
▸Insurance	4	$225B
▸Telecommunications	2	$144B
▸Pharmaceuticals	2	$112B
▸Media / Entertainment	2	$69B

Price history

+1366.7% since first listed

10 events — show timeline

• 2026-05-18 Listed $110,000 CNYIS
• 2008-12-30 Sold (MLS) $65,000 UNYREIS
• 2008-12-29 Sold (Public Records) $64,999 Public Records
• 2008-10-13 Listed $69,900 UNYREIS
• 2006-11-20 Sold (Public Records) $47,500 Public Records
• 2006-09-19 Sold (MLS) $47,500 UNYREIS
• 2006-04-28 Sold (Public Records) $75,000 Public Records
• 2006-04-04 Listed $49,900 UNYREIS
• 2001-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $11,000 Public Records
• 2001-02-05 Sold (Public Records) $7,500 Public Records

Property tax history

-0.1%/yr

Latest (2025): $1,093 · +0.4% YoY. Source: county tax records.